International Trade
2 Back to the old Mad Men days Netflix was probably the first on the scene to forewarn the shift in consumer behaviour when it was founded in 1997, followed closely by Spotify and – more recently - YouTube Red. These subscription-based models see consumers pay to opt-out of marketing messages. Membership type services provide users with a clutter free experience in exchange for small monthly fees. This means a shift back to the Mad Men marketing tactics of product placement – weaving your offers into native content where your audience is engaged. 3 The rise of AI means you need to specialise Microsoft’s purchase of Maluuba, Google with its $500M acquisition of DeepMind and Intel’s recent buyout of Nervana for more than $350M is proof that robotic intelligence is a double-edged sword for marketers.
Globalisation Globalisation once made the world go round. Is it all going to come to a halt with President Trump and Brexit? What will be the effects on world trade in 2017? Globally, opinions are mixed regarding exactly what the outcomes might be but here are some predictions:
On one hand, data collection, analysis, budget spend optimisation and technical implementations will become systemised to a level unachievable by humans, resulting in overall improved return on investment.
• If Trump goes ahead with all his proposals, the world will plunge into a trade war.
On the flip side, could highly skilled, knowledgebased jobs become at risk?
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Later this year, IBM’s Watson, a robot trained in law is set to pass the bar and a recent report estimates that over 46 per cent of jobs in New Zealand are set to be replaced by AI in the next 20 years.
Trump has said he will renegotiate the NAFTA free trade agreement between the US, Canada and Mexico and slap duties on imports from countries that don’t play by global trade rules.
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Trump also floated the idea of a 35 per cent tariff on goods from Mexico, a 45 per cent tariff on goods from China and a border tax – which would impose a levy on imports but not exports
The only way to compete is to become highly specialised.
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Look out if Marine Le Pen wins the French Presidency in May - she is also not keen on international trade and will threaten the unity of the European Union
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Brexit is pushing the UK into all sorts of difficult areas however the UK stresses it is still keen trade with other countries.
4 Micro, personalised conversations Another massive shift in the marketing world is the fact computers can now process language, and actually converse with humans in ways they never could before. Combine this with the rise of messaging apps, where consumers are shifting conversations away from public social platforms into microenvironments – and you have the rise of chatbots. If trends happening in Asia are anything to go by, this will soon spell the end of websites and perhaps even apps. Instead, customers will engage a bot to provide them with information – be it for makeup lessons from Sephora through to ordering a pizza from Domino’s – when and where they need it. Cat Howell Marketing Association
The Chamber and NZ Marketing Association have teamed up to offer even more marketing training in Canterbury. Members of both organisations receive member rates on all joint training. Visit www.cecc.org.nz/marketing for more information
• China’s President, Xi Jinping, is making it clear that he was prepared to fill the vacuum if Trump goes ahead with the sort of protectionist policies he had proposed in his election campaign.
My take on it all? The political environment will continue to have an impact on international trade however, the media is a great one for scaring us. We must remember that trade is much bigger than politics. The changes in technology (past and future) mean more opportunities for businesses than ever before, with consumers having greater access to overseas suppliers and products. Ultimately, consumer demand will drive trade. We live in a changing world and always will. Trump’s policies will certainly have an impact on globalisation, and so will Brexit, but it will also create other trade opportunities and who knows what the benefits will be. As with everything, the key to survival is staying up to date and adapting your business to changes – political, technological and consumer/demographics. As a speaker at the recent SingularityU summit in Christchurch said: the focus these days shouldn’t be on IQ, but AQ (adaptability quotient). Adapt, adapt, adapt! Shirley van Waveren Business & International Trade Advisor
The Chamber Update Q2 2017
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