ORER ACIL STC 2012-14 projection

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Modelling creation of Small-scale Technology Certificates

Table 5 Table 6 Table 7 Table 8 Table 9 Table 10 Table 11 Table 12 Table 13 Table 14 Table 15 Table 16 Table 17 Table 18 Table 19 Table 20 Table 21 Table 22 Table 23 Table 24 Table 25

Assumed lag in STC creation by SGUs over projection period Observed and underlying SGU installed capacity – September 2010 to August 2011 Model results, coefficients and R2 Assumed system sizes Location of solar PV installations – October 2010 to September 2011 Conversion from time of installation to time of STC creation Projected STC creation by SGUs – by year of installation (000s) Projected STC creation by SGUs – by year of certificate creation (000s) State/territory SWH incentives and rebates Implied SWH penetration in new separate houses SWH penetration assumptions – new separate houses STCs/SWH new building installation STC creation by SWHs in new dwellings – by year of installation (000s) STC creation by SWHs in new dwellings – by year of certificate creation (000s) Replacement SWH installation rates (installations per quarter) STCs/replacement SWH installation STC creation by replacement SWHs – by year of installation (000s) STC creation by SWHs in new dwellings – by year of certificate creation (000s) STC creation by all SWHs – by year of installation (000s) STC creation by all SWHs – by year of certificate creation (000s) Projected STC creation – by year of certificate creation (000s)

36 37 41 46 47 49 49 50 55 57 58 59 60 60 62 63 63 64 64 65 66

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