10 0 -30 -10 -20 -40 -30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -40 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
-20
0 -10
ECONOMIC TRENDS IN GERMANY -20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Enterprises' Business Expectations
– in Points
Expectations for exports have suffered a significant setBalance of “better” and “worse” Opinions long-time-average=5 back and are now below their long-term average. The distortions 30 in trade policy are unsettling companies and leaving their mark. 20 Companies fear that the rampant trade conflicts, especially be11 10 tween the USA and China, will have a serious impact on trade 0 over the next twelve months. Against the background of the high -10 level of uncertainty, in particular producers of capital goods pro-20 expect their international business to flatten out. In many ducers -30 important sales markets there are signs of a slower pace of eco-40 growth. In the near future, the emerging markets will be at nomic 2008 2009 2010as2011 2012 drivers. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 least2007 partially absent growth
FALL 2018
Enterprises' Export Expectations
– in Points
Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions Enterprises' Investment Intentions
50 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 -100 -20 -10 -30 -20 -40
long-time-average=21 – in Points
Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions
long-time-average= -1 19 17
79 Chambers of Industry and Commerce ask, approximately 27,000 Enterprises answer
-30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -40
economy data at a glance
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Enterprises' Export Expectations
Enterprises' Investment Intentions
– in Points
Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions
long-time-average=21
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
17
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
– in Points
Balance ofEmployment “higher” and “lower”Intentions Opinions -1 Enterprises' – long-time-average= in Points 30 Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions long-time-average= -6 20 far 20The significant decline in business expectations has so 19 10 only been reflected to a limited extent in the employment in11 100
tentions. Employment plans decline only slightly compared to -10 early 0 summer. Especially in times when skilled workers are scar-20companies are holding on to their qualified teams. In spite of ce, -10 -30 cautious economic expectations and concerns about rising labor -40costs, the employment growth continues in the fourteenth -20 2008 2010 2011 slower 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 year,2007 albeit at 2009 a somewhat pace. -30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions
financing conditions
70
0
-10 50 40
-20 30
20 -30
70
domestic demand financing conditions lack of skilled workers Prices of energy and raw materials
2018
2017
2016
2015
0
2014
10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
long-time-average= -6 11
long-time-average= -in percent, *export-industry-6
60
20 10
Prices of energy and raw materials
Risks for the economic development
– in Points
– in Points
foreign demand* labour costs exchange rates* economic policy conditions
10 lack of skilled workers
2013
Enterprises' Employment Intentions
20 domestic demand
2012
Balance of “higher” Opinions for companies long-time-average= The increased level and of “lower” uncertainty is also -1rein a slight slowdown in investment momentum. Fewer 20 19 companies than in early summer intend to expand their budgets. 10 However, the plans remain at a solid high level overall. In addition 0 favorable financing conditions, this is due to the high cato the pacity -10 utilization in many areas as well as the digitization of the operations. Capacity expansions and product innovations remain -20 the -30most important investment motives in autumn 2018. At the current margin, the proportion of companies planning to invest -40 in rationalization is also rising 2007 2008 2009 measures 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 slightly. 2015 2016This 2017shows 2018 the lack of skilled workers that has long been deplored. 30 flected
Enterprises' Employment Intentions Balance “higher” and “lower” Opinions Risks for theof economic development
2011
– in Points
2010
Enterprises' Investment Intentions
DIHK-Economic-Survey Fall 2018
-in percent, *export-industry
foreign demand* labour costs exchange rates* economic policy conditions
11
20 10
-10
ECONOMIC TRENDS IN GERMANY -10 0
-20
-20 FALL 2018 -30
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Enterprises' Business Expectations
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Risks for the economic development
– in Points
Balance of “better” and “worse” Opinions
long-time-average=5
30 20
70
10
11
domestic demand financing conditions lack of skilled workers Prices of energy and raw materials
-in percent, *export-industry
Germany, changes on the previous year
foreign demand* labour costs exchange rates* economic policy conditions
2017
DIHKForecast 2018
DIHKForecast 2019
GDP
2.2
1.8
1.7
Final consumption expenditure of private households
1.8
1.4
1.8
Government final consumption expenditure
1.6
1.4
2.5
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF)
2.9
3.3
2.9
GFCF in machinery and equipment
3.7
5.0
4.0
Other fixed assets
1.3
1.0
2.0
GFCF in construction
2.9
3.0
2.5
Exports
4.6
2.8
2.5
Imports
4.8
4.0
3.8
Unemployment (in millions)
2.53
2.35
2.21
Employment (change in thousand)
+627
+580
+500
1.8
1.9
2.0
in per cent, use of the gross domestic product (GDP), price-adjusted, chain-linked
60 50
0
40
-10
30
-20
20
Enterprises' Export Expectations Points with a greater Companies are looking at their future– in business
degree ofBalance caution – the and strongest deterioration in business expecof “higher” “lower” Opinions long-time-average=21 50 tations in four years. This is particularly evident in manufactur40industry. ing Companies are obstacles even more Herbst 2016 43 44 feeling 11 40 48 and15risks 25 38 30 Jahresbeginn 2017 40 summer. 39 11 greatest 40 48 32 43 of strongly than in early The risk of17the shortage 20 Frühsommer 2017 38 37 11 39 51 15 31 4117 skilled workers again37gains33in importance. This is being compoundHerbst 10 40 56 18 30 38 10 2017 edJahresbeginn difficult33 framework in terms 27 10conditions 42 60 13 of32economic 38 0by more2018 Frühsommer 2018 34 international 30 10 level. 42 The 61clouded 14 international 30 37 policy and -10 on national Herbst 2018 34 33 9 41 62 14 34 39 -20 prospects of German companies are the most significant factor. In -30 terms of energy and raw material prices - due to higher oil and gas -40 prices2007 - further burdens will be added the2015 high2016 costs2017 of electricity 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 to 2014 2018 in Germany, which continue to rise in the foreseeable future.
Enterprises' Investment Intentions
43 44 11 40 40 39 11 40 38 37 11 39 37 33 10 40 33 2011 27 2012 102013 42 2010 2014 34 30 10 42 34 33 9 41
economic policy conditions
prices of energy and raw materials
lack of skilled workers
48 15 25 48 17 32 51 15 31 56 18 30 60 2016 13 2017322018 2015 61 14 30 62 14 34
Enterprises' Employment Intentions Balance of “higher” and “lower” Opinions
exchange rates*
-10 Fall -202016 February 2017 -30 Summer 2017 Early Fall -402017 February 20072018 2008 2009 Early Summer 2018 Fall 2018
labor costs
0
financing conditions
10
foreign demand*
domestic demand
20
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
The German economy is still running at a high level. The construction industry assesses its economic situation more positively than ever before. Trade and service providers are also benefiting from the strong domestic demand. However, the picture is not completely unclouded: Manufacturing industry and especially large companies in all sectors already notice that the wind is becoming rougher at the international level. They are making cutbacks in the assessment of their business situation in autumn 2018.
Assessment of the Situation
– in Points
Balance of “good” and “bad” Opinions
long-time-average=13
50
45
40
– in Points
Risks for the ofeconomic * Industry) Balance “higher” anddevelopment “lower” Opinions (in percent; long-time-average= -1 30
0
2012
Wirtschaftspolitische Rahmenbedingungen
Energie- und Rohstoffpreise
Wechselkurs*
Fachkräftemangel
Arbeitskosten
Finanzierung
Auslandsnachfrage*
Inlandsnachfrage
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2011
-40 Geschäftsrisiken (in Prozent *Industrieunternehmen)
10 2010
-30
20
DIHK-FORECAST 2018 / 2019
19
38 43 41 38 38 37 39
– in Points long-time-average= -6
30 20 10 0 -10
Consumer price
-20 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Enterprises' Business Expectations
– in Points
Editor: © Balance DIHK | Deutscher Handelskammertag e. V. of “better” Industrieand “worse”und Opinions long-time-average=5 Breite Strasse 29 | 10178 Berlin-Mitte | www.dihk.de 30 Responsible: Sophia Krietenbrink | DIHK | October 2018 20
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