By Dave Fry
There seems to be something troubling bulls. What could it be? Russia doesn’t seem to be it — even if they invade the rest of Ukraine. Employment data was good on Thursday as were most economic reports. Earnings season overall was weaker than some suggested especially on revenues. One issue many aren’t discussing from a negative view is future Fed monetary policies and actions and could be the very “thing” bothering the bulls in general. For example, bulls were originally disappointed by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s recent news conference regarding her view of a “considerable period of time” before the Fed started raising interest rates. The next day her comments were spun in a more positive light and markets rallied. But since that rehab-job was complete, other Fed governors have suggested what she said originally was correct, meaning after the unemployment rate declines below 6% and taper is
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done, the Fed could begin raising interest rates six months later. Understanding this should mean that Fed-easy money policies would end and bulls would be left on life-support and in withdrawal. Realizing this ahead of time leads to selling and/or taking some chips off the table. Perhaps you can infer some of this via Bespoke Investment Group featured below:
So what explains all this positive action from Emerging Markets? This is a tough one but Reuters gives it a shot below: SAO PAULO, March 26 (Reuters) – Latin American stocks gained for an eighth consecutive session on Wednesday as hopes of stimulus measures in China and Europe coupled with better-than-forecast U.S. economic data supported investors’ appetite for risk. But Brazil’s real and Mexico’s peso, the most-traded currencies in the region, halted their recent rally after hitting multimonth highs.
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MSCI’s benchmark stock index for Latin America rose 0.4% in its eighth straight positive session. Brazil’s benchmark Bovespa index also climbed 0.4%, leading regional gains. The Bovespa index has gained more than 8 percent since March 14, when it closed below 45,000 points for the first time in nearly five years. “We have heard that investors are reallocating in Brazil some of their positions in Russia and China,” said Hersz Ferman, an economist with Elite brokerage in Sao Paulo, citing Russia’s problems with Ukraine and China’s weak economic data. “Global markets are more keen on risk assets,” he added. Appetite for risk increased as investors looked past the Russia-Ukraine crisis to focus on U.S. data showing orders for manufactured goods rebounded in February while the services industry grew solidly in March. Expectations that China’s central bank could unveil new stimulus measures to support the economy have also buoyed emerging markets over the past few days.” Back in the U.S., economic data Thursday featured jobless claims, which missed expectations and declined to 311,000 vs 323,00 expected, and prior 321,00. GDP showed a slight improvement in the fourth quarter rising to 2.6% vs 2.7% expected, and prior 2.4%. Pending Home Sales fell for the eighth-straight month though came in as expected at -0.8% vs prior -0.2%, and finally, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index came in better than expected at 10.0 vs 5.0 expected, and prior 4.0. After the close (naturally), it was announced that Citigroup, Royal Bank of Scotland, HSBC Holdings and Banco Santander SA failed Fed stress tests because of concerns over the quality of their processes. The result disallows, at least for now, dividends and stock buybacks these companies had proposed. Back to the drawing board for them! Leading sectors higher Thursday included: Natural Gas Producers (FCG), /quotes/zigman/1506375/delayed/quotes/nls/fcg FCG +2.67% ; Oil & Gas Exploration /quotes/zigman/477969/delayed/quotes/nls/xop XOP +1.58% ; Utilities /quotes/zigman/246354/delayed/quotes/nls/xlu XLU +0.81% ; Emerging Markets /quotes/zigman/322623/delayed/quotes/nls/eem EEM +1.30% , South Korea /quotes/zigman/22227/delayed/quotes/nls/ewy EWY +1.30% ; Brazil /quotes/zigman/264176/delayed/quotes/nls/ewz EWZ +4.63% ; Mexico /quotes/zigman/260604/delayed/quotes/nls/eww EWW +0.96% Latin American 40 /quotes/zigman/291163/delayed/quotes/nls/ilf ILF +3.32% ; Colombia /quotes/zigman/1494972/delayed/quotes/nls/gxg GXG +3.04% China /quotes/zigman/357940/delayed/quotes/nls/fxi FXI +0.72% ; India /quotes/zigman/1512813/delayed/quotes/nls/epi EPI +0.92% ; Europe/Pacific /quotes/zigman/1507855/delayed/quotes/nls/vea VEA +0.57% ; Oil /quotes/zigman/413712/delayed/quotes/nls/uso USO +1.14% , and Bonds /quotes/zigman/1480195/delayed/quotes/nls/tlt TLT +0.50% . Leading sectors lower Thursday included: NASDAQ 100
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/quotes/zigman/105934/delayed/quotes/nls/qqq QQQ -0.56% ; Financials /quotes/zigman/246222/delayed/quotes/nls/xlf XLF -0.54% ; Banks /quotes/zigman/478226/delayed/quotes/nls/kbe KBE -1.57% ; Regional Banks /quotes/zigman/478050/delayed/quotes/nls/kre KRE -1.94% ; Small Caps /quotes/zigman/260873/delayed/quotes/nls/iwm IWM -0.25% ; Retail /quotes/zigman/478011/delayed/quotes/nls/xrt XRT -0.28% ; Semiconductors /quotes/zigman/7871052/delayed/quotes/nls/smh SMH -0.56% ; Consumer Discretionary /quotes/zigman/246177/delayed/quotes/nls/xly XLY -0.48% ; Networking /quotes/zigman/287977/delayed/quotes/nls/ign IGN -0.67% ; Social Media /quotes/zigman/7289836/delayed/quotes/nls/socl SOCL -1.33% ; Gold /quotes/zigman/41663/delayed/quotes/nls/gld GLD -0.65% , and Silver /quotes/zigman/417006/delayed/quotes/nls/slv SLV -0.11% . Today we featured a short video on First Trust Internet ETF /quotes/zigman/1497276/delayed/quotes/nls/fdn FDN -0.46% from a weekly daily chart perspective and the top 20 market movers by percent change in volume whether rising or falling is available daily. Volume was higher than recently and breadth per the WSJ was mixed to negative.
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/quotes/zigman/1506375/delayed/quotes/nls/fcg
First Trust ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index Fund
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 584,972 March 27, 2014 4:00p
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/quotes/zigman/477969/delayed/quotes/nls/xop
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 3.94M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/246354/delayed/quotes/nls/xlu
Select Sector SPDR-Utilities
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 13.42M March 27, 2014 4:00p
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/quotes/zigman/322623/delayed/quotes/nls/eem
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 70.35M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/22227/delayed/quotes/nls/ewy
iShares MSCI South Korea Capped ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 2.93M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/264176/delayed/quotes/nls/ewz
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iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 39.42M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/260604/delayed/quotes/nls/eww
iShares MSCI Mexico Capped ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 2.80M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/291163/delayed/quotes/nls/ilf
iShares Latin America 40 ETF
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US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 1.22M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/1494972/delayed/quotes/nls/gxg
Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 334,410 March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/357940/delayed/quotes/nls/fxi
iShares China Large-Cap ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
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Volume: 21.59M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/1512813/delayed/quotes/nls/epi
WisdomTree India Earnings Fund
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 3.76M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/1507855/delayed/quotes/nls/vea
Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 3.58M
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March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/413712/delayed/quotes/nls/uso
United States Oil Fund LP
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 2.08M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/1480195/delayed/quotes/nls/tlt
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 9.69M March 27, 2014 4:00p
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/quotes/zigman/105934/delayed/quotes/nls/qqq
PowerShares QQQ Trust Series 1
US : U.S.: Nasdaq Volume: 62.77M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/246222/delayed/quotes/nls/xlf
Select Sector SPDR-Financial
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 56.50M March 27, 2014 4:00p
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/quotes/zigman/478226/delayed/quotes/nls/kbe
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 1.88M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/478050/delayed/quotes/nls/kre
SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 3.85M March 27, 2014 4:00p
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/quotes/zigman/260873/delayed/quotes/nls/iwm
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 59.50M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/478011/delayed/quotes/nls/xrt
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 3.84M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/7871052/delayed/quotes/nls/smh
Market Vectors Semiconductor ETF
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US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 1.86M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/246177/delayed/quotes/nls/xly
Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 6.35M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/287977/delayed/quotes/nls/ign
iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca
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Volume: 74,901 March 27, 2014 3:59p
/quotes/zigman/7289836/delayed/quotes/nls/socl
Global X Social Media Index ETF
US : U.S.: Nasdaq Volume: 383,207 March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/41663/delayed/quotes/nls/gld
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 7.25M March 27, 2014 4:00p
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/quotes/zigman/417006/delayed/quotes/nls/slv
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 4.57M March 27, 2014 4:00p
/quotes/zigman/1497276/delayed/quotes/nls/fdn
First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund
US : U.S.: NYSE Arca Volume: 741,245 March 27, 2014 4:00p
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