Monthly Indicators A RESEARCH TOOL PROVIDED BY THE CHARLOTTE REGIONAL REALTOR® ASSOCIATION FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT A REALTOR®
June 2013
Quick Facts
As potentially the brightest sun in the current economic recovery, housing activity has followed the mercury higher this summer. Interest rates and new construction activity have been in the spotlight lately, fueled by concerns over tapering Federal Reserve activity and ongoing inventory constraints. Watch for indications that more homes are selling in less time and at higher price points. Also watch for sellers returning to an inviting marketplace, which will help replenish neighborhoods with new listings. New Listings in the Charlotte region increased 9.1 percent to 4,585. Pending Sales were down 3.1 percent to 3,534. Inventory levels shrank 21.9 percent to 14,597 units. Prices followed the mercury higher. The Median Sales Price increased 7.4 percent to $184,000. List to Close was down 11.1 percent to 132 days. Absorption rates improved as Months Supply of Inventory was down 38.4 percent to 5.1 months. The economy – which generates the jobs that fuel housing demand – continued to improve at a moderate pace during the second quarter of 2013. Budget sequesters and sluggish export growth have taken a back seat to housing recovery and stronger consumer spending. Interest rates could flirt with 4.0 percent again but are not likely to reach 3.3 percent again.
+ 31.2%
+ 7.4%
- 21.9%
Year-Over-Year Change in Closed Sales
Year-Over-Year Change in Median Sales Price
Year-Over-Year Change in Inventory
Market Overview New Listings Pending Sales Closed Sales List to Close Days on Market Until Sale Cumulative Days on Market Until Sale Average List Price Average Sales Price Median Sales Price Percent of Original List Price Received Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
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All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing.
Market Overview Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date.
Key Metrics
Historical Sparklines
New Listings 6-2010
6-2011
6-2012
6-2011
6-2012
6-2010
6-2011
6-2012
6-2013
6-2010
6-2011
6-2012
6-2013
List to Close
Average List Price 6-2010
6-2011
6-2012
6-2013
6-2010
6-2011
6-2012
6-2013
6-2010
6-2011
6-2012
6-2013
Average Sales Price
Median Sales Price Percent of Original List Price Received 6-2011
6-2012
6-2011
6-2012
YTD 2012 YTD 2013
+/–
4,204
4,585
+ 9.1%
26,041
28,058
+ 7.7%
3,646
3,534
- 3.1%
15,527
19,753
+ 27.2%
2,657
3,485
+ 31.2%
12,683
16,624
+ 31.1%
148
132
- 11.1%
156
143
- 8.4%
$238,201
$259,086
+ 8.8%
$248,934
$264,819
+ 6.4%
$227,907
$239,842
+ 5.2%
$207,920
$218,512
+ 5.1%
$171,250
$184,000
+ 7.4%
$158,000
$168,000
+ 6.3%
92.7%
95.1%
+ 2.6%
91.7%
93.7%
+ 2.2%
183
163
- 11.1%
195
175
- 10.1%
18,700
14,597
- 21.9%
--
--
--
8.4
5.1
- 38.4%
--
--
--
6-2013
Housing Affordability Index 6-2010
+/–
6-2013
Closed Sales
6-2010
6-2013
6-2013
Pending Sales 6-2010
6-2012
6-2013
Inventory of Homes for Sale 6-2010
6-2011
6-2012
6-2013
6-2010
6-2011
6-2012
6-2013
Months Supply of Homes for Sale
Note: CarolinaMLS did not include “showable” under contract listings in the “Pending Sales” stats before July 2012. Listing agents report listings as “Under Contract-Show” earlier in the transaction. As a result, the new “Pending Sales” stats trend higher “Months Supply of Inventory” stats trend lower since July 2012. | Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 2
New Listings A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
June
Year To Date 28,058
4,585 4,144
2011
26,257
4,204
+1.4%
+9.1%
2012
2013
26,041
2011
-0.8%
+7.7%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
3,681
4,011
+9.0%
August
3,940
3,887
-1.3%
September
3,409
3,357
-1.5%
October
3,244
3,547
+9.3%
November
2,880
3,116
+8.2%
December
2,384
2,387
+0.1%
January
3,889
3,913
+0.6%
February
4,019
4,299
+7.0%
March
4,817
4,931
+2.4%
April
4,583
5,166
+12.7%
May
4,529
5,164
+14.0%
June
4,204
4,585
+9.1%
12-Month Avg
3,798
4,030
+6.1%
Historical New Listing Activity 8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTORÂŽ Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 3
Pending Sales A count of the properties on which contracts have been accepted in a given month. Pending contracts include “Under Contract-Show” and “Under Contract-No Show” statuses.
June
Year To Date 3,646
3,534 19,753 15,527
2,303 11,823
2011
+58.3%
-3.1%
2012
2013
2011
+31.3%
+27.2%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
2,043
2,792
+36.7%
August
2,211
2,625
+18.7%
September
1,886
2,264
+20.0%
October
1,758
2,455
+39.6%
November
1,799
2,194
+22.0%
December
1,609
1,939
+20.5%
January
1,798
2,629
+46.2%
February
2,019
2,796
+38.5%
March
2,402
3,416
+42.2%
April
2,508
3,631
+44.8%
May
3,154
3,747
+18.8%
June
3,646
3,534
-3.1%
12-Month Avg
2,236
2,835
+26.8%
Historical Pending Sales Activity 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Note: CarolinaMLS did not include “showable” under contract listings in the “Pending Sales” stats before July 2012. Listing agents report listings as “Under Contract-Show” earlier in the transaction. As a result, the new “Pending Sales” stats trend higher “Months Supply of Inventory” stats trend lower since July 2012. | Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 4
Closed Sales A count of the actual sales that have closed in a given month.
June
Year To Date 16,624
3,485 12,683
2,657
11,038
2,329
2011
+14.1%
+31.2%
2012
2013
2011
+14.9%
+31.1%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
2,171
2,651
+22.1%
August
2,285
2,900
+26.9%
September
1,968
2,243
+14.0%
October
1,882
2,574
+36.8%
November
1,686
2,274
+34.9%
December
1,896
2,338
+23.3%
January
1,541
2,160
+40.2%
February
1,614
2,043
+26.6%
March
2,098
2,620
+24.9%
April
2,168
2,915
+34.5%
May
2,605
3,401
+30.6%
June
2,657
3,485
+31.2%
12-Month Avg
2,048
2,634
+28.8%
Historical Closed Sales Activity 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTORÂŽ Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 5
List to Close “List to Close” provides the total number of days specific to the MLS number from “Listing Date” to “Sold Date.”
June
Year To Date 167
161
156
148
143 132
2011
-8.2%
-11.1%
2012
2013
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
160
148
-7.6%
August
158
143
-9.1%
September
168
150
-10.8%
October
167
149
-10.9%
November
161
146
-9.0%
December
158
156
-1.6%
January
165
155
-5.8%
February
159
147
-7.6%
March
166
151
-9.0%
April
155
142
-8.9%
May
149
138
-7.0%
June
148
132
-11.1%
12-Month Avg
159
146
-8.2%
Month
-6.5%
-8.4%
2012
2013
Historical List to Close 200 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 6
Days on Market Until Sale Days on Market (“DOM”) tracks the days on market for a property specific to the MLS number. “DOM” accrues for “Active” and “Under Contract-Show” statuses. “DOM” does not include any days that the listing is in “Under Contract-No Show,” “Temporarily off Market,” “Closed/Sold,” “Expired” and “Withdrawn” statuses.
June
Year To Date
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
119
109
-7.9%
August
117
104
-11.3%
September
126
111
-12.0%
October
122
108
-11.7%
November
118
106
-9.8%
December
122
115
-5.6%
Month July
121
121
115
111
102 93
2011
-8.2%
-16.5%
2012
2013
2011
-4.6%
-11.5%
2012
2013
January
122
108
-11.6%
February
119
106
-10.5%
March
120
112
-6.1%
April
116
101
-12.8%
May
111
99
-10.5%
June
111
93
-16.5%
12-Month Avg
151
124
-17.7%
Historical Days on Market 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 7
Cumulative Days on Market Until Sale Cumulative Days on Market (“CDOM”) functions like “DOM”; however, “CDOM” tracks the days on market for a property over multiple listings on the property. When a new listing is entered, the “CDOM” only resets to zero if the previous listing closed (as in sold), or if the previous listing has been off market (expired or withdrawn) for more than 90 days.
June
Year To Date 163
162
145
138
118 106
2011
-14.7%
-23.0%
2012
2013
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
157
135
-14.6%
Month
-10.9%
-18.4%
2012
2013
August
151
128
-15.2%
September
164
132
-19.4%
October
161
128
-20.5%
November
151
126
-16.2%
December
154
131
-14.7%
January
146
126
-13.8%
February
151
124
-17.8%
March
152
131
-13.9%
April
148
119
-19.4%
May
141
113
-20.0%
June
138
106
-23.0%
12-Month Avg
151
124
-17.7%
Historical Cumulative Days on Market 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 8
Average List Price Average list price for all homes that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.
June
Year To Date $264,819 $248,934
$243,668 $249,427
2011
$259,086 $238,201
-4.5%
+8.8%
2012
2013
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
$241,033
$231,589
-3.9%
August
$230,062
$236,078
+2.6%
September
$239,604
$242,195
+1.1%
October
$222,098
$231,275
+4.1%
November
$221,789
$218,616
-1.4%
December
$213,005
$219,685
+3.1%
January
$245,851
$247,596
+0.7%
February
$247,551
$262,568
+6.1%
March
$258,126
$272,586
+5.6%
April
$263,053
$271,972
+3.4%
May
$238,694
$270,228
+13.2%
June
$238,201
$259,086
+8.8%
12-Month Avg
$240,468
$250,533
+4.2%
Month
+2.2%
+6.4%
2012
2013
Historical Average List Price $300,000
$280,000
$260,000
$240,000
$220,000
$200,000
$180,000 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTORÂŽ Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 9
Average Sales Price Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
June
$216,318
2011
Year To Date
$227,907
+ 5.4%
+ 5.2%
2012
2013
$218,512
$207,920
$201,238
$239,842
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
$213,205
$219,867
+3.1%
August
$205,711
$213,846
+4.0%
September
$196,649
$205,463
+4.5%
October
$194,739
$204,284
+4.9%
November
$192,414
$204,816
+6.4%
December
$190,565
$205,567
+7.9%
January
$187,803
$188,783
+0.5%
February
$184,766
$194,774
+5.4%
March
$196,214
$216,336
+10.3%
April
$214,739
$217,088
+1.1%
May
$217,442
$232,698
+7.0%
June
$227,907
$239,842
+5.2%
12-Month Avg
$203,867
$214,169
+5.1%
Month
+ 3.3%
+ 5.1%
2012
2013
Historical Average Sales Price $250,000 $240,000 $230,000 $220,000 $210,000 $200,000 $190,000 $180,000 $170,000 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTORÂŽ Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 10
Median Sales Price Median price point for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.
June
Year To Date $184,000 $168,000
$171,250 $156,750
2011
$158,000
$150,000
+9.3%
+7.4%
2012
2013
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
$163,500
$165,800
+1.4%
August
$158,000
$163,000
+3.2%
September
$149,900
$160,000
+6.7%
October
$151,942
$157,000
+3.3%
November
$151,470
$160,000
+5.6%
December
$155,000
$158,925
+2.5%
January
$146,200
$150,000
+2.6%
February
$145,450
$150,923
+3.8%
March
$153,807
$168,000
+9.2%
April
$159,990
$167,000
+4.4%
May
$165,000
$173,250
+5.0%
June
$171,250
$184,000
+7.4%
12-Month Med
$156,000
$165,000
+5.8%
Month
+5.3%
+6.3%
2012
2013
Historical Median Sales Price $190,000
$180,000
$170,000
$160,000
$150,000
$140,000
$130,000 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTORÂŽ Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 12
Percent of Original List Price Received Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties sold in a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.
June 89.7%
2011
Year To Date 92.7%
95.1%
+3.3%
+2.6%
2012
2013
93.7%
91.7%
88.9%
2011
+3.1%
+2.2%
2012
2013
Month
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
89.7%
92.5%
+3.1%
August
89.7%
92.4%
+3.0%
September
89.4%
91.9%
+2.9%
October
90.0%
92.3%
+2.6%
November
90.7%
92.2%
+1.7%
December
90.0%
92.3%
+2.5%
January
90.2%
92.6%
+2.6%
February
90.7%
92.6%
+2.1%
March
91.3%
93.0%
+1.8%
April
91.9%
93.6%
+1.8%
May
92.2%
94.3%
+2.3%
June
92.7%
95.1%
+2.6%
12-Month Avg
90.8%
93.0%
+2.4%
Historical Percent of Original List Price Received 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 13
Housing Affordability Index This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income was 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.
June 182
Year To Date 183 163
2011
+0.4%
-11.1%
2012
2013
195
189
175
2011
Prior Year
Current Year
July
175
190
+8.2%
August
185
192
+3.6%
September
196
198
+1.2%
October
192
200
+4.1%
November
194
198
+1.9%
December
191
200
+5.2%
Month
+3.4%
-10.1%
2012
2013
+/–
January
201
211
+4.8%
February
204
205
+0.8%
March
193
188
-2.4%
April
190
192
+1.3%
May
187
181
-3.7%
June
183
163
-11.1%
12-Month Avg
191
193
+1.2%
Historical Housing Affordability Index 220
200
180
160
140
120
100 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTORÂŽ Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 14
Inventory of Homes for Sale The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.
June
Prior Year
Current Year
+/–
July
22,926
18,212
-20.6%
August
22,128
17,743
-19.8%
September
21,369
17,172
-19.6%
October
20,594
16,538
-19.7%
November
19,681
15,844
-19.5%
December
18,611
14,856
-20.2%
January
18,271
14,265
-21.9%
February
18,695
14,598
-21.9%
March
19,523
14,857
-23.9%
April
20,145
15,107
-25.0%
May
19,772
15,040
-23.9%
June
18,700
14,597
-21.9%
12-Month Avg
20,035
15,736
-21.5%
Month
23,673
18,700 14,597
2011
-21.0%
-21.9%
2012
2013
Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale 30,000 27,500 25,000 22,500 20,000 17,500 15,000 12,500 1-2004
1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTORÂŽ Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 15
Months Supply of Inventory The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.
June
Prior Year
Current Year
July
12.6
7.9
-37.0%
August
11.9
7.6
-36.2%
September
11.4
7.3
-36.2%
Month
13.2
8.4
5.1
2011
-36.5%
-38.4%
2012
2013
+/–
October
10.9
6.8
-37.2%
November
10.3
6.5
-37.3%
December
9.7
6.0
-38.0%
January
9.3
5.6
-40.0%
February
9.4
5.6
-40.5%
March
9.7
5.5
-43.3%
April
9.9
5.4
-45.2%
May
9.3
5.3
-43.2%
June
8.4
5.1
-38.4%
12-Month Avg
10.2
6.2
-39.2%
Historical Months Supply of Inventory 16
14
12
10
8
6
4 1-2005
1-2006
1-2007
1-2008
1-2009
1-2010
1-2011
1-2012
1-2013
Note: CarolinaMLS did not include “showable” under contract listings in the “Pending Sales” stats before July 2012. Listing agents report listings as “Under Contract-Show” earlier in the transaction. As a result, the new “Pending Sales” stats trend higher “Months Supply of Inventory” stats trend lower since July 2012. | Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity. Figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of July 5, 2013. All data from CarolinaMLS. Report provided by the Charlotte Regional REALTOR® Association. Powered by 10K Research and Marketing. | Click for Cover Page | 16