STRATEGIC EUROPE
Iran, however, is only one small part of the problem. Despite the fact that the global stockpile of nuclear weapons has declined from around 70,000 in the mid-1980s to around 23,000 today, and despite the welcome signing of New START between the United States and Russia, nuclear modernization or force build-up programs are underway in all of the currently nuclear armed states. Almost all have recently produced, or are planning, new or modernized nuclear warheads and better and more dangerous delivery systems. This applies to the United States and Russia, to China, India, Pakistan, France, the United Kingdom, and, reportedly, Israel. Recently, North Korea has been discovered to have uranium enrichment facilities of a far greater scale and sophistication than anything previously imagined by the international community. While the total number of nuclear weapons in the world has gone down, the number of nuclear weapon states has gone up and—crucially—nuclear armed states now exist in some of the most unstable and conflictprone regions in the world. The situation surrounding the North Korean program and its potential implications for stability across wider Northeast Asia remains serious. In South Asia, India and Pakistan, two countries that have fought three wars with each other and at least one other major skirmish in recent decades, are not only locked in an adversarial relationship but are reportedly developing smaller warheads for “tactical” use in war-fighting scenarios. While attention has been focused on the newer challenges of globalization, the rationale for these nuclear force programs indicates the persistence of deterrence as a key concept shaping the defense policies of the major powers. The Russian program is said to be a response to concerns over U.S. ballistic missile defense, advanced conventional capabilities like Conventional Prompt Global Strike, and improved U.S. intelligence and surveillance hardware. The Chinese program is justified by reference to U.S. and Indian forces, and India’s program is driven by fear over both Pakistan and China. French nuclear weapons modernization has been justified by President Nicolas Sarkozy explicitly as a response to stockpiles elsewhere that “keep on growing,” while in the United Kingdom the weapons are seen as an insurance policy against the possible long-term reemergence of a state-based nuclear threat to UK national security. While
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