Final Report - CARICOM Regional Commission on Marijuana 2018 Waiting to Exhale

9. Conclusions As the region contemplates the way forward regarding the legal treatment of issues relating to marijuana, an important fact has become apparent. While 2015 estimates show that between 128.1 million to 237.9 million people worldwide consumed marijuana [1], in the region this figure varies substantially. The same can be said about the effects of the substance’s use on law enforcement activities along with other aspects of the marijuana market. These realities highlight the fact that individual country situations are not homogeneous. Furthermore, the literature and the analysis have demonstrated that such policies can result in varied outcomes for each country. So that whereas some countries may experience significant benefits from a change in the marijuana legal framework, benefits that may surpass the resultant costs, there is no guarantee that others may realise the identical outcomes.

Savings and additional revenues may be significant, depending on the model of liberalization used, costs will also vary by the country and model. In the case of model 1 additional costs tend to be the lowest and so are the benefits in terms of savings and additional revenues. Models 2 and 3 have been shown to result in the highest benefits alongside the highest costs. Moreover, each model points to a different objective, model 1, decriminalization of marijuana possession, seeks to reduce the long-term legal fallouts of consumption of small amounts of marijuana, for the user, including youths. It also aims to improve resource allocation efficiency among law enforcement and the judicial system by no longer arresting and charging most marijuana users (most marijuana-related arrests and subsequent charges are for marijuana possession, see section 7 above). Whereas models 2 and 3 also achieve similar objectives, these models go a step further by including a revenue-raising component and greater freedom to grow, use and distribute marijuana. Model 2 allows for greater direct government control over the process than model 3. In each case, the impact on each of the variables of interest will be different.

Moreover, the region must decide on which objective is of interest to it, if any and adapt the appropriate model. In fact, as the literature disclosed, many of the countries and states that have legalized marijuana, started with some iteration of model 1 and have, over time, graduated to models 2, in the case of Uruguay, or model 3. This, therefore, highlights the point that countries need not have static objectives or feel compelled to move from its current state to a state of full legalization. In fact, Anderson and others (29) made a similar suggestion in their work on marijuana laws and their impact on traffic fatalities and alcohol consumption, where they stated that the movement from a state of illegal marijuana to one where marijuana is fully legalized, may be ill-advised, due in part to the predicted impact on price and marijuana use prevalence.

Furthermore, Individual country experiences, as observed from the literature, show that after any of the legislative changes, marijuana use is likely to increase. Again, this increase tends to vary depending on the model implemented. In model 1 that change ranged from 0.03% within the first 6 years of the legislative modification, to 10% after 20 years of the implementation of the new marijuana legal framework. In the case of model 2, overall prevalence (last year use) increased 7.5 percentage points and among youth, the figure moved from 8.4% in 2003 to 17% in 2014, one year after legalization. In model 3 regular marijuana use among persons, age 18-24 increased from 11% in 2011 to 15 % in 2015, two years after legalization.

What is more, there may be a need to be extra vigilant with respect to preventing the use of marijuana while driving, much like it is done with alcohol. The country experiences show that after legalization, there was a marked increase in the number of traffic fatalities where the driver tested positive for recent marijuana use, increases that have reach as high as 300%. It is however worth noting that this 105