TRANSFORMING THE CARIBBEAN PORT SERVICES INDUSTRY: TOWARDS THE EFFICIENCY FRONTIER - PAGE 13
Figure 0-4 Indexed Gateway Container Growth Forecast
Trinidad & Tobago
Suriname
Barbados
St. Kitts
Antigua
Dominicia
Grenada
St. Vincent
St. Lucia
Bahamas
Belize
Guyana
180 • • • • •
170 160
• Suriname (71%) • Guyana (64%)
Belize (49%) Bahamas (45%) Antigua (38%) St. Vincent (34%) Barbados (33%)
150 140 130
• • • • •
St. Lucia (29%) Dominica (28%) St. Kitts (27%) Trinidad & Tobago (27%) Grenada (19%)
120 110 100 2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
TRAFFIC FORECAST FOR THE BMC PORTS Figure 0-4 provides an overview of the gateway container forecast. The figures have been indexed (year 2015 = 100) in order to enable comparison of growth between individual countries. From the figure, a substantial range in estimated outcomes can be noted. For example, by 2025, Suriname’s gateway container demand is estimated to have grown by approximately 70%, whereas Grenada’s cargo demand is estimated to have grown by approximately 20%. Based on projected growth, countries have been ranked and grouped. The following three groups have been identified: • High growth group: Suriname and Guyana; • Medium growth group: Belize, Bahamas, Antigua, Saint Vincent, and Barbados; and, • Low growth group: Saint Lucia, Dominica, St. Kitts, Trinidad & Tobago, and Grenada.
From the identified groups, it may be noted that the OECS countries included in the assessment generally underperform in projected cargo growth, as compared to other countries included in the assessment. This is to be expected, as the smaller island nations typically exhibit low population and GDP growth. It can be further noted that Trinidad & Tobago is expected to achieve a substantially lower cargo growth than comparable countries. This is mainly attributable to a low GDP growth expectation (the IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts the country’s GDP to grow by 1.0% to 1.75% per annum until 2020). Based on the projected demand growth, capacity constraints are expected to develop mainly in the continental ports (Suriname and Guyana), even after carrying out a sensitivity analysis that controls for potentially optimistic economic growth projections.