At the country level, the commodity exporting countries of Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago and Belize exhibited the highest levels of volatility, whereas the tourism intensive countries (particularly members of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union) such as Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada, and Saint Lucia faced moderate volatility (Figure 1.3). These countries were the ones less diversified with heavy reliance on commodity exports and tourism as their major growth drivers. On the other hand, the countries with the least volatility in the Region were those with more diversified economic sectors and contributions from agriculture and industry to GDP growth.
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, and authors’ calculation.
The total productivity trends have mirrored the economic growth trends in the region. Data for total factor productivity for Barbados over the 1960 to 2015 period indicate that while there was an increase between 1960 and 1972, there has been a decline since the 1970s (Figure 1.4a). In the case of Jamaica, total factor productivity rose up to 1972 and then became volatile since the 1970s with a declining trend since 1993 (Figure 1.4b). Trinidad and Tobago has displayed a cyclical pattern since the 1950s. It has exhibited an upwards trend since 1993 (Figure 1.4c). Figure 1.4a: Total factor productivity for Barbados 1960-2014
Source: University of Groningen, University of California, Davis
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ENHANCING PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWTH IN THE CARIBBEAN