Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies
Identify Biases Scenarios provide a platform to identify potential (dis)inclinations or partialities that individuals and organisations have towards certain situations and decisions. Taking a broad set of scenarios mitigates well known behavioural effects like confirmation and availability biases (See Section 4.3). Such an approach
also allows for alternative responses to be compared to a baseline. By setting these processes up in advance, decision makers can be mindful of these issues and take proactive measures to ensure that the process remains objective. This yields a systemic benefit that is realised over time.
2.4 Types of scenario Scenario design and development processes can be commonly distinguished and classified, based on the development process, their purpose, or certain characteristics.49 In practice, these typologies are rarely binary or independent, and instead can be imagined as a multi-dimensional matrix with unique outcomes.
This section proposes a series of distinctions which are commonly used in scenario development. We encourage readers to consider them as they construct scenarios in the context of their aims, within the process of ‘Framing the Scenario(s)’ (Step 3 in the Scenario Development Framework).
Trend Risks Versus Shock Risks Scenarios can be developed to consider either suddenonset hazards that emerge quickly or unexpectedly, or slow-onset, trend phenomena that take a long time to produce emergency conditions. The type of hazard dictates how the scenario is developed and how it may be used. Sudden-onset shocks are abrupt events that trigger impacts that materialise rapidly and interact with conditions of exposure and vulnerability to result in a disaster. The focus of these scenarios is to identify and express events which might shock a community and cause human, material, economic, and or environmental impacts and loss. Typically, these impacts require immediate attention in the response phase of DRM. Examples of sudden-onset hazards include natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, or storms; or human-induced hazards such as civil conflict or a disease epidemic. The scope of this report focuses predominantly on scenarios to address such disaster events.
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In contrast to shock events, slow-onset, trend risks are of concern for holistic risk reduction, mitigation, and adaption planning, within a broader agenda of sustainable development. This requires users to consider temporality and identify both short-term signals and long-term impacts. The latter are likely to be less noticeable than short-term events, as changes materialise gradually over a prolonged period, although early warning signals do exist if you know where to look. If effective action is taken, there is the benefit of having enough time to determine the best method to mitigate or alleviate the risk. An example of a trend risk is climate change, which presents physical risks from environmental change as well as transition risks as society evolves towards a low-carbon economy.
49. E.g. (Mietzner and Reger 2005; Henrichs et al. 2010; Van Vuuren et al. 2012)
