Jonah lehrer how we decide

Fooled by a Feeling \ 75 These contestants are victims of a very simple flaw rooted in the emotional brain. Alas, this defect isn't limited to greedy game-show contestants, and the same feelings that caused Frank to reject the fair offers can lead even the most rational people to make utterly foolish choices. Consider this scenario: The United States is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill six hundred people.

Two different programs to combat the disease have been pro­ posed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the con­ sequences of the programs are as follows: If program A is adopted, two hundred people will be saved. If program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that six hundred peo­ ple will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved. Which of the two programs would you favor?

When this question was put to a large sample of physicians, 72 percent chose option A, the safe-and-sure strategy, and only 28 percent chose program B, the risky strategy. In other words, physicians would rather save a certain number of people for sure than risk the possibility that everyone might die. But consider this scenario: The United States is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill six hundred people.

Two different programs to combat the disease have been pro­ posed. Assume that the exact scientific estimates of the con­ sequences of the programs are as follows: If program C is adopted, four hundred people will die. If program D is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a twothirds probability that six hundred people will die. Which of the two programs would you favor?

When the scenario was described in terms of deaths instead of survivors, physicians reversed their previous decisions. Only 22 percent voted for option C, while 78 percent chose option D, the risky strategy. Most doctors were now acting just like Frank: