Jonah lehrer how we decide

Fooled by a Feeling \ 73 For the first time, the Banker's offer is essentially fair: he is willing to "buy" Nondumiso's sealed briefcase for $286,000. As soon as she hears the number, she breaks into a huge smile and starts to cry. Without even pausing to contemplate the math, Nondumiso begins chanting, "Deal! Deal! I want a deal!" Her loved ones swarm the stage. The host tries to ask Nondumiso a few questions, and she struggles to speak through the tears.

In many respects, Nondumiso made an excellent set of deci­ sions. A computer that meticulously analyzed the data couldn't have done much better. But it's important to note how Non­ dumiso arrived at these decisions. She never took out a calcula­ tor or estimated the average amount of money remaining in the briefcases. She never scrutinized her options or contemplated what would happen if she eliminated one of the larger amounts of money. (In that case, the offer probably would have been cut by at least 50 percent.) Instead, her risky choices were entirely impulsive; she trusted her feelings to not lead her astray.

While this instinctive decision-making strategy normally works out just fine—Nondumiso's feelings made her rich—there are certain situations on the game show that reliably fool the emotional brain. In these cases, contestants end up making ter­ rible choices, rejecting deals that they should accept. They lose fortunes because they trust their emotions at the wrong mo­ ment.

Look at poor Frank, a contestant on the Dutch version of Deal or No Deal. He gets off to an unlucky start by immedi­ ately eliminating some of the most lucrative briefcases. After six rounds, Frank has only one valuable briefcase left, worth five hundred thousand euros. The Banker offers him € 1 0 2 , 0 0 6 , about 75 percent of a perfectly fair offer. Frank decides to reject the deal. He's gambling that the next briefcase he picks won't contain the last big monetary amount, thus driving up the offer from the Banker. So far, his emotions are acting in accordance with the arithmetic. They are holding out for a better deal.