What's Ahead fo, the Lumber Industry in 1955 ?

Nctionol Income to Reqch $t Billion Doily During 1957

By

N. Floyd {lcGowin'Presidenf' Nofionol lumber Mqnufqcturers Associotion

The year now drawing to a close has been a. sobering one foi lumber manufaclurersin fact, for the entire lumber industry.

The year ahead is one to approach with cautious optimism. - It would appear that the decline in lumber output is about to end.- - This year's production, atthiswriting, is expected to total about 34 billion board feetsome 9/o below 1956.

The prospect is that 1958 production will at least equal the levil ol tgST and could very well exceed it. No more precise estimate is possible at the present time because of a number of factors which have yet to crystalize'

Housing is one of the uncertainties.

Tight mottey is expected to be the chief limiting factor to hdusing activity next year, as it was in 1957.

Some eising of the mbrtgage market is likely because of increased savings and a leveling ofi in the demand for funds to finance industrial plant and equipment expansion.

Assuming some sort of increase from this year's probable tolal of 950,000 to one million housing starts, it is likely that apartment units will account for a greater share oftotal housing output in 1958 than in 1957.

How lumbermen fare in next year's housing market

wEtcol,lE

In this issue, we welcome these new advertisers into the family of California Lumber "Merchant-isers": will depend largely upon how aggressively and how forcefully they undertake to promote the advantages of lumber and *ood products to thi builder, architect and prospective home buyer.

The nation's economic growth will hit a new high this year when the national income reaches a rate of $1 billion a day, a B. F. Goodrich economist predicted. "U.S. nationaiincome will amount to $360 billion this year with the last quarter of 1957 at the rate of $1 billion a day. That will be nearly double the income recorded f.or 1947, just ten years ago," he said. The outlook is also good for American business in the fu' ture. "National income in 1958 should increase to $375 biltrion. The long range outlook is for business to continue good for the next ten years," he declared.

Population growth from today's 172 million to about 200 million in 1967, and technological advancements are among the reasons he cited for the optimistic outlook. Research expenditures by American industry this year will be well over $7 billion and by 1960 nearly $10 billion will be devoted annually to research that will create new materials and new products," the B. F. Goodrich analvst said.

Never has there been a greater need for aggressive merchandising by the lumber industry.

The prospect of a significant increase in home remodeling-repair-expansion work next year should serve as an incentive to the industry to step up its merchdndising-advertising efforts promptly.

An encouraging development of late has been the leveling off of lumber inventories at the mill level. Halting the steady rise in gross mill stocks has involved some shutdowns, and, in many cases, a shorter workweek.

But the industry is in a much better position now than earlier in th.e year to feel the full salutary efiects of a pickup ln new Duslness.

It will be no comfort to know that the Corps of Engineers now expects the dollar volume of its lumber purchases in 1958 to be some 25/o below 1957. llowever, military demands are subject to constant change and the increased emphasis on guided missile-space satelite developments could alter almost all procurement schedules overnight.

To sum up, 1958 would seem to be a year in which the lumber industry has an opportunity to strengthen its hold on present markets and acquire new ones. There will be many rough spots in the months ahead. But none of the problems will be of such magnitude as to defy solution by men of courage, vision and ingenuity.