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By R. A. Colgon, Jr. Execulive Vice President Notionol [umber Monufoclurers Associolion

When the New Year closes the books on 195O, lumbermen everywhere will realize they have been through a strenuous, and at times, confusing year. Remembering the housing boom of the first six months and the sudden birth of new government agencies-complete rvith allocation, priorities and other restrictions-after the Korean invasion on June 25, most producers are casting a wary eye at th! year ahead.

Predicting lumber trends in l95l is at best a hazy business. None of us can be sure of our forecasts. The world situation is shifting so rapidly that definitive conclusions would be risky. However, I do feel reasonably safe in making a few comments about the general outlook as it appears to be shaping up.

Government restrictions have already reined in the galloping construction industry which had lumber mills operating at peak capacity during the months before Korea. To meet the mammoth demand for lumber, manufacturers produced at a rate of 40 billion board feet per year, the largest output in twenty years. By August, the monthly production rate had climbed to an estimated 3 billion 950 million feet to set a new monthly record.

This amazing feat has apparently had little effect on official government thinking. As partial justification for inflicting controls on the construction industry, defense planners state that home building must be curtailed in order to make available enough lumber for military needs.

Estimates from both the Federal Reserve Board and the Housing and Home Finance Agency place the decline in new housing starts from an estimated peak of 1.300,000 units to a probable 1951 average of 800,000 or 850,000 units. The construction industry, sizing up the effect of nerv credit restrictions on home buying, estimates a steeper drop to about 600,000 new units for the coming year.

From a lumber standpoint, these cutbacks are unwarranted. In consultation *'ith officials of the National Production Authority, the Commerce Department's economic control agency, industry leaders have pledged a 25% increase in the already tremendous rate of production IF it is needed to meet both military and civilian demands.

But as the rveeks go by, that IF gets bigger and bigger. Lumbermen are beginning to think the long-heralded upsurge in lumber demands will not develop.

Here's rvhy: Government orders for housing curbs already signed and being carried out indicate that a drastic cut in home building is almost certain in 1951. A corresponding cut in the civilian demand for lumber will inevitably follorr. With Armed Forces needs taking only 4% oI the present production, military requirements will not take up the slack. So unless defense orders are accelerated in the next ferv months, production s'ill have to be cut and early l95l could easily see a private depression in the lumber industry.

The inherent danger in such a situation is apparent. \\'ith many mills closed and others operating on a 6-hour day, sudden all-out rvar would find the industry unable to supply the lumber that rvould be needed at once. Horvever. r*'e hope the government rvill realize the threat and rvill allow us to keep production high enough to avert such a situation.

The 1'ear ahead rvill also bring a tightening of the manpower availability rvithin the industry. It is a foregone conclusion that a proposed fighting force of 3 million men by mid-1952 is going to siphon off most of the men in the 19-26 age group in nearlv all industries. As a basic material, lumber has been listed bv the Department of Commerce as an "essential industry." But the Department of Labor has not yet seen fit to include any typical lumber industry

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