Western Pine Shipments This Yeor Crowding 1954's All-time High

Portland-Indications are that the remainder of 1955, and at least early 1956 will bring continued high demand for lumber, members of the Western Pine Association were told as they concluded three days of business sessions here September 16.

Speaking before the semi-annual meeting of the association at the Multnorhah hotel, the group's assistant secretary-manager, W. E. Griffee, Portland, estimated total 1955 shipments by the Western Pine industry "will crorvd 9 billion" board feet. 1954 shipments were an all-time high of approximately 8 billion board feet.

The region's shipments during the first seven months, he reported, are up l2o/s f.rorn last year and from 1950, the all-time high year for residential housing construction.

Predicted new construction totals, Griffee pointed out, are up lO/o irom 1954, ol which only three or four percent is due to higher costs. Of this, more than ffi/o is for non-residential work.

"Though these types of construction take much less lumber per dollar spent than does residential," the lumberman said, "the lumber required for such a tremendous volume of construction is considerable. The same must be trtre of industrial production rvhich is running l5/o ahead of last year."

fndustrial production also requires heavy consumption of lumber products.

Griffee asserted the recent tightening of credits by the administration is to "prolong the housing boom, not stop it." If the housing trend were suddenly to turn downrvard, he said, the two percent increase required in down payments undoubtedly would be quickly 'withdrarvn.

"A growing number of forecasters," he noted, "are getting away from the idea we should expect a housing slump even between now and 1960, when the World War II crop of babies will begin marrying."

He said the current 1or,l' rate of new family formations is more than offset by the rate of moving of families to suburbs of larger cities and migrations to the south and rvest. This, plus tl.re fact workers'wages have tripled rvhile costs have but doubled since 1939 is allowing more people to buy larger homes than ever before.

The lumberman said Western Pine mill stocks are three or four percent below those of a year ago, despite the heavy increase in production. He said they are currently less than 2O/o of the year's anticipated shipments.

He noted box shook demand is much more seasonal norv than during and right after the rvar.

He foresaw the growth of plywood plants in the Western Pine region to utilize "peeler" type logs, though lumber manufactured from those logs in the region is in excellent demand.

The semi-annual meeting is held here each September. The association's annual meeting will be held in San Francisco next March.