Mahogany in 1952

Geo. N. Lamb, Secretary-Manager Mahogany Association Inc.

\\rhat r,vill happe'' in the Mahogany industry in 1952? It seerns to me that nr-rt so long ago it was rather easy to write an "outlook" for th,: year. Then as the year rolled by, events largely confirrnecl the story. Now the job seems much more cliliicult. A year ago our predictions hit the mark except that lve clid not realize fully that there would be a pile-up of furniture inventories and the slowdown in buying that they would cause during 1951.

\\re rvere right in believing that requirements for war production would not hamper furniture production in any seriotts way in 1951. Even "ora,, it does not appear that war procluctiorr n,ill be a limiting factor in 1952, certainly not during the first half of the year. Unless the war situation taltes a serious turn, fulniture production will be adequate for the next twelvt' rronths.

It all adds up to just this. If Mr. Stalin allows the Unitecl States to operate in 1952 according to our plans, war requiremerrts for wood and wood products are unlikely to cause an,i' real shortage in supplies for civilian use. This probably will be the case even thc.ugh woocl production may run into sonre difficulties later in the year because qf shortages in labor, ecluipment and suppiies.

The Mahogany outlook ties up rather closely with thc prospects of the furniture industry for 1952. The pro<luction of television sets also rii'ill have an important influence. The men in that industry best clualified to judge the probable volume of next year's production expect that about 4,250,000 sets will be r.nanufactured. Tirat is not far from what will be produce<l in 1951 when all of the reports are in.

Tlris production will mean rrore as a markct in 1952 than it did in 1951 as television sets were greatly overproduced in the last quarter of 1950 and the first quarter of 1951. This was due to a mad scramble to builcl sets before war reqttirements iuterfered. The expected interference did not materialize, so the television industry' strugglecl rvith excess inventory the rest of the year, with production dropping to very low levels.

The demand for Mahogany for moclels, mocli-ups and founclry patterns will be up during the coming year as the atlditional supply of machine tools permits increasing procluction in lvar goods.

The dernand for \{ahogany for caskets also will be up as inventories of material for metal caskets are consttmed an<l additional supplies are sharply curtailed.

As r,l'e stated befcre, the demand for Mahogany for furniture depends upon the volume of furniture that rvill be produced during the year. There ahvays is a lot of shifting aboulin clesign and woods in times rvhen demanrl is less than supply. This is particularly true when productive capacity has been substantially increased during a period of unusttal demand. The demand for Mahogany, however, continues strong. Comparatively it is fully maintaining its position in the furniture field. This is confirmed by the demand for the Mahogany Assocation's offrcial labels and tags. The tendency has been for rranufacturers to rvitlen lines to include more moderu zrnd Provincial design in other woods. The same tendency extends to the retail tracle in certain stores or areas.

In the case of the {urniture industry, the end of World War II released a backlog of demand and a filling of the distribution pipeline that made the current demand appear to be tremendous. Just as tlre industry was catching up, the Koreatt situation startecl a wave of scare buying.

At the present turn of the year, excess inventory has been grcatly reduced ancL u'ith a great m?ny fi1115, it has been cntirely liclridated. 'fhis might indicate that the Jauttary urarket rvill be a big one and back to normal. It rvill be bacli to norrnal but that normal u,ill be lvitl-rout thc benefit of the war' tirre backlog of clen..and ancl scare buying, but r'vith substantially increasecl productive capacit,v. Reduction in the building of new hotnes also .lill be a factor in curtailing clernand antl thc shift toward de1'cnsc housing r'vill aggravate that curtailment.

In spite of the con<litions just cited, a lot of furniture will be rna<le and sold. It will not be surprising if the 1952 volume equals that of 195i. If it is oft, tl.re percentage should be snrall. If this proves trtte, the demand for Mahogany for furniture shoulcl be reasonably good.

We clo not believc that the all-over cler.nancl for N{ahogany rvill be sufficient to talie care of the all-time record importation of Mahogany in 1950 and 1951 ; on the other hand, rve clo not cxpect that 1952 importation will approach the records of tht: lllrst tr'vo Years. Iu both tlf these yeats conditions in tl-re tropics have been extremely favc;rable for procluction ancl it is r"rnlikely tlr:Lt such conclitions r,ill continuc for three ye:rrs in iI row. Iivcn if physical conditions are reasonably gootl, tirere are othcr limiting factors Costs have been rising stea<li11' ancl show rro signs of leveling off. Eclttipr.r.rent, supplies, transportation ancl ralr, rr-raterial are costing lnore l-lloney. In a nutnber of thc proclucing areas, econornic ar.rcl political conclitions are becot.nins more difficult.

Inventories of l{ahogany velleer are bacli to norr.ual but inventories of tN'[aho;:an)' luurber still are well below normal. liverything consitle rcil, the trlahoganlr itt4tttttt looks forrn'ard' not to a big year, bt'.t to a good year. Sales u'ill not approach the all-time records ,rf 1950 and 1951 ; neither will imports'

Ncmed Mcncrger oI Baltimore Olfice

The I'acific l-umber Company has announced the appointment of Vernon W. N[allo-r' as mitnager. -\tlantic Coast s:Lles. u,ith offices in Ilaltirnorc.

Ntr. Nlalloy rettlrns to the lttn-rber business after an abscnce of six years, during n hich time he served as assistant tii the presiclent of \\reather-Seal, Inc., at Barberton, Ohio. Hc n'as formerly llanager of the Ne'iv York Office of The l'acific Lumber Comp:rny, and later manager, Southeastern Sales. for California Redu'ood Distributors I-td. He n'ill assume his neu' duties on March 1.