Prospects ond Possibilities For 1954 Construction

New York. Dec. 3l-The construction industry salesman will ride over more new roads in 1954 but he is likely to see fewer new homes going up, less public constru'ction, and not as many new factories as he saw in 1953.

However, his order book is likely to benefit from continuing good business in the commercial and institutional building fields and from increased public utility construction and a potential market of $11.5 billion or more in maintenance, expansion and modernization of existing structures.

In fact, if he gets out and hustles, the modernization or "fix-up" market could easily offset an expected decline in new housing starts in 1954.

This would seem to sum up the possible changes in the construction picture ahead, barring any major fluctuations in the nation's economy, according to Harold R. Berlin, Vice President of Johns-Manville Corporation.

Mr. Berlin, who is General Manager of the Company's Building Products Division, pointed out that a new record volume estimated at $45.8 billion was achieved in 1953 by construction in four categories. These categories and their outlook for 1954 are:

1. New housing starts in 1953 numbered about 1,050,000 and cost approximately $11.9 billion. This figure may taper off to 90O,000 units or somewhat over $1O billion in the coming year.

2. Private new non-residential construction, which is commer,cial, industrial, public utilities, farm, institutional, and recreational facilities, was estimated 'at $11.3 billion last year and should hold at about $i1'O billion in the coming year.

3. New public construction, such as new highways, sewerage, waterworks and public buildings, and to a much lesser extent than in 1952 atomic energy facilities, was estimated at $11.1 billion in 1953 and may decline to $10.5 billion in 1954.

4. Maintenance alteration and modernization of existing structures cost an estimated $11'5 billion in 1953 and is quite likely to go substantially higher if vigorously pursued by the selling force.

"The anticipated 900,000 new housing starts in 1954' while somewhat lower than the 1953 figure is due.in part to the backlog of deferred demand for new homes-although there is still something of a shortage, particularly in the rapidly growing suburban communities," Mr. Berlin stated, adding:

"Another factor is the smaller number of young people reaching the marriageable age in 1954. They rn ere born in the depression Thirties when the birthrate ruas abnormally low. New household formation in the coming year will probably be only about 715,ffi0.

"However," Mr. Berlin said, "household formation is far from the only source of housing demand. An enormously important source is migration rvithin the nation, 'i'r'hich is growing rather than declining."

He pointed out that in the census year ending April, 1952, about 25,900,000 people moved into a difierent house. This startling figure represents about 20a/o of the civilian nonfarm population of the United States. Of this number an estimated 17,500,000 persons moved rvithin the same county -generally the suburbs. It is the suburbs that offer the great potential for the 1954 building salesman, according to Mr. Berlin.

"This movement of the population to tl-re suburbs has tremendous momentum particularly because of the continuing high birthrate," Mr. Berlin said, adding, "There were more than 4,000,000 babies born in 1953, an all-time high.

"Vast numbers of the hurriedly built postwar houses are proving too small for these growing families. The result is a vast market in the 'fix-up' or expansion segment of the residential construction industry. Inumerable attics will be converted into bedrooms as the children get older and wings will be added to many a house if the size of the lot permits.

"In the private non-residential construction category," Mr. Berlin noted, "one of its components, commercial construction, increased about 2B/o above the $1,450,000,000 figure ol 1952.

"Industrial construction provided one of the major sur- prises of 1953. Factory construction approximated the 1952 figure of $2,320,000,000 although a decline had been expected in 1953. This decline is very likely to take place in 1954 and volume may 'n'ell fall below $2 billion.

"Public utilties construction in 1953 rose 5l/o abor-e 1952 to about $4.2 billion. The main reason for this is the almost ceaseless demand for electricity-both industrial and residential. For one thing, the modern 1953 house has almost four times as many r,vired outlets as its pre-war counterpart and the power load per house is grou'ing by leaps and bounds.

"Institution and recreational construction at about $1.6 billion in 1953 should remain about the same in 195,1.

"Farm construction in 1953 at about $1.6 billion, is definitely on the dorvngrade because of the decline in farm income. The coming year mav see this figure around $1.2 billion or lower.

"Despite Federal economv cutbacks, neu' pultlic construction increased about 2.5/c in 1953 to about $$11.1 billion primarily because most government agencies could clraw on huge appropriations voted in the past. It may be lower, perhaps around $10.5 billion in 7954."

Mr. Berlin noted that State and Municipal construction is normally the backbone of public construction.

"Fedeal heavy constuction contacts, dopped about 72/o in 1953 primarily because of a decline in atomic energy contracts. The AEC contracts in 1952 totaled $2.3 billion and in 1953 about $59 million. Construction in other federal classes, such as buildings, irrigation dams, harbor u'orks, waterways and other classes increased l4/o over 1952 mainly because oI previously voted appropriations. It is in 1954 that the decline may become more evident in these categories because of the economy program.

"In the residential 'fix-up' market, more leisure time and the availability of small cheap power tools help make it easier for the homeowner to do some of the n'ork himself. The larger jobs, however, are for the professional.

"fn store construction it is increasingly irnportant to be modern. Thousands of stores still await modernization.

"1954 will be the year of the salesman and the fields of 'fix-up' and modernization hold his greatest opportunity to create plus sales to offset possible declines in other branches of the construction industry." Mr. Berlin said.

Venturq County Hqs Three New Retoil Yqrds

Three new retail lumber yards were established in Ventura County during the final quarter of 1953 ofiering complete service to the consumer of lumber and allied building products. They are the Somis Lumber Company of Camarillo, Carter Lumber Company of El Rio and the Wagon Wheel Lumber Company located at the junction of Highway 101 just north of Oxnard.

Oronge County Building Boom

Orange County, rvhich claims to be the fastest growing area in Southern California, built 10,365 new homes in 1953, according to County Surveyor \\r. K. Hillyard. It was likewise estimated that Orange County population increasecl 36,277 in 1953.