Homebuilders Optimistic About '64

The National Association of Home Builder's economic department, in an early look at 7964, forecasts a slight decline in housirg starts {rom this year's near-record high. (According to the F. W. Dodge Corporation, construction statistics reportinpJ service, residential construction contracts next year may show a modest increase over 1963 with single-family housing accounting for a larger percentage of total new-home output. )

NAHB looks for a small slide in the building of multi{amily structures in 1964 while single-{amily starts should be at the same level of this year.

It forecasts about 1.500.000 starts in 1964, with about 525,000 units in multiples. That would be ahout an overall 2/6 drop.

"The significant thing about our forecast for 1964 is the anticipation of some softening in the rental market and the lack of vigorous growth comparable to that evidenced in the spring and summer months of 1963 when housing starts increased rapidly."

The Department added, "we will be moving inlo 1964 at a lower rate than was achieved so {ar in 1963."

The Department said its r,iew ol 1964 is based on uncertainties which were not present at the start o{ this year.

"l'or one thing," the Department said, o'it is an election year with all of the consequent unsettling effect on our nation's political and economic structure.

"For another. we still have no final decision of the fate of the tax bill which is now before the Congress. On the assumption that whatever is done will not affect taxes in 1963, but may well affect the 1964 tax structure, there is a possibility of a positive boost to 1964's economy, a boost which may well be needed at that time. The economic upturn, which has already continued longer than any other postwar boom-4l months-now seems somewhat tired."

The House has approved an $ll billion tax cut measure pushed by the Kennedy Administration. The Senate Finance Committee is now considering the measure. There's still considerable doubt whether the Congress will anprove a tax cut before it quits this year.

Meanwhile, Monroe Kimbrel, president o{ the American Bankers Association. said he sees no particular reason to expect a business downturn in coming months. But he foresees'ono particular upsurge" in economic activity soon. Dr. Walter W'. Heller, chairman of President Kennedy's Council of Economic Advisers, rvas optimistic, predicting that the national economy will hit the $600 billion level for the first time early next year.

In its survey oI the housing scene, the economics department reported that the shift to multiple units dominates the 1963 picture. The multiples are accounting for abofi 36/a of total starts in 1963, the highest proportion of multiple units since the I920's.

"But it seems," the department added, "that the gain of multiples as a proportion of total units w-ill sloH' up in the remaining months oi 196ll.

"ln many localities there are definite signs ol ouerbuilding. In others, this is mt J'et clppalent, m,ainly be.cause ol lag in the time it takes to build these units and also the time, it takes to rcnt them."

Dollar volume of total construction activity in 1963 is forecast at $63.6 billion, or 4.25/o higher than 1962.

The private residential sector of construction will increase about 6/o.

Some of the reasons cited {or a relativelv high level of home building activity in 1964: a general high rate of population increase and greater personal incomes.

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