An Average Housing Year, Despite Strong Demand

By H. C. A. Hunter Director- sales & marketing Lumber & Plywood Division St. Regis Paper Co.

I T appears that I l98l shapes up as an average hou..sing year desprte strong carry-over demand from the I 980 disaster. Affordability and availability of money will remain the critical buyers.

Assuming a more moderate approach than exhibited in 1980 by the Federal Reserve Board there is little doubt housing starts will rise above the l1/z million level.

As it did in 1980 the West, including Texas, should provide the strongest area of activity. Florida will be another hot spot.

Story at a Glance

An average year for housing . . . affordability and availability of money critical West will be the strongest area more large distribution centers owned by maiors.

The remodeling sector proved to be surprisingly strong in 1980 and likely will remain a major user of wood products in 1981 and beyond.

Until more evidence comes from Washington, D.C. that revenues and expenditures are headed for equality over time. the focus of those interested in the economy will be on the

In summary, the time is not now for a real estate construction boom but the forces are moving in place to re-establish the basis for a sound market. Patience and moderation are the attributes to strive for 1981.

We see sheathing plywood and studs under heavy competitive pressures in the coming years. Acceptance of wafer-board type panels for structural use increased markedly in 1980 and poses a continuing threat in the future. As has been the case since the mid 70s, Canadian stud production will dominate that market arena.

Timber related problems of cost and availability will be the most serious problem facing manufacturers. Political and environmental forces have reduced public timber supply at an alarming rate creating a critical shortage for mills not owning private lands.

The trend toward large distribution centers owned by major corporations will accelerate in the 1980s.

Independents, particularly in the West, will face a major challenge from the tree to home concept of these companles.

The 1980s still look to be favorable for housing but l98l probably be just a wann-up year.