An early forecast for 1972 construction

FVEN though exact directions are .l-J nei completely clear as this is writteno pending further shakedown for Phase II of the new economic program, several points are begin. ning to come into perspective for the construction industry and its suppliers for 1972. They indicate continued strong housing and new gains in the remaining, and larger, segment of the construction industry, Dollar volume of construction, and its components, should continue very strong with non-residential categories making a better showing than they did in most oI 1971.

The'imbalance oI 1971, withhousing the superstar while the larger portion of the industry barely started its recovery, should move into a better balanced and a healthy over. all gain if the general economy is allowed to move ahead at all. Anything less is difficult to visualize at this time.

Nationally, a few scattered areas appear to have at least reached their current annual requirements for new housing, but large geographic areas have not yet approached the neces. sary momentum. The backlog of residential permits, the supply of con. ventional money, the enlarged secondary market program and the many projects that were temporarily in abeyance awaiting clarification of

By Horold E. Sqnds executive vice president building mqleriqls distribution Georgio-Pocific Corp.

economic controls, all point to sustained high housing momentum going well into 1972.

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ln new starts and very substantial modernization of all types, the housing market should exceed 71's dollar figure.,..starts probably will be up . . non-residential markets will increase.

We should expect a major building materials market, low-rent, moving more strongly into the inner cities where it is badly needed and virtually untouched to date. If we are to meet this real need, the large modernization projects must begin to move in larger volume long before the end of 1972, ln new starts and very substantial modernization of all types, the housing market should exceed its 1971 total dollar figure with starts probably up. I feel strongly that too many people are underestimating the 1972 housing potential.

A large portion of the increase in building materials demand for the coming year, however, will come in the non-residential field where plans are already on the drawing boards for the shopping centers, offices and other local community facilities that have not kept pace with new housing developments. And industrial construction, which has been lagging behind 1970 virtually the whole year, is now beginning to respond in many areas.

'There will be continued increases in costs all down the line, hopefully held within reason during the period ahead but certainly sufficient to make delays in needed construction a cosdy thing in the long run.

I firmly believe that if we proceed with the job to be done, and properly discount and thwart where possible the roadblocks that can be expected in a major political year, we can count 1972 as another year of substantial, healthy progress.