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Growing economy? What next?

Since late 2000 and particularly post 9/ll, there is no doubt that the overall economy has been tough for many companies, and many industries. Ours, not without its problems, has been one of the more vibrant, and I shudder to think what it could have been like if the housing market had not been so strong.

It seemed for a while everything was going down the tubes; however, after three years of plague and pestilence, the tide maybe turning. Recent signs suggest that the next wave of the economy is about to begin. After a shaky start to the year, we are starting to see increasing confidence that the bottom of the curve is angled in the right direction.

Housing numbers and projections look strong. The impact of the tax cuts is now being felt. While unemployment is still high, new job creation is showing up. Coming from l0 years in the tech industry, I am a great believer that the true sign of turnaround will be the technology market growing again. Suggestions are that we are near. Large capital investments are a sign that our business leaders believe in the turnaround.

The stock market is growing steadily, and I suggest that this growth will continue steadily and not be as spectacular as the excesses we all saw in the late '90s. It is partly because too many of us have been burned, and perhaps we will be more careful going forward. However, if the tide is tuming, how do we insure that our businesses get their fair share of the growth to come?

Last month's column discussed the budgeting process, and certainly while most of us analyze our businesses on a regular basis, the first thing to do is truly analyze what is going on, both in your business, your competitors', and the industry as a whole. If your business is strong, it is time to be bold. Windows of opportunity come and go, so getting a step ahead can make a large difference when the market is about to grow.

This is the time to be investing in new human capital, training, technolo- gy, product development, marketing and promotion. It's a time to be developing new lines of credit, and looking to acquire under-performing operations. Businesses have been trading at much lower multiples than three years ago, so this is the time to be looking for bargains. If you are ready to sell your business, this is the time to be preparing for a sale in the next 12 months. There must be a lot of capital sitting on the sidelines.

Review the expense cuts made these past couple of years, and untie the hands of your key people. Conversely, hand-cuff your key people to your company. When the economy gets strong again, it will become an employee market, back perhaps to where it was few years ago.

Last month I wrote about planned strategic risk. Maybe, just maybe, this is the time to be ahead of the game, not behind it.

The Galifornia Fires

Unfortunately, my wildfire predictions in September's editorial have come true-and perhaps a little too close to home.

As we go to press, the Southern California fires are still burning. To date,20 lives have been lost, 2800 homes have been destroyed, and 750,000 acres have been burned.

First, our thoughts go out to all touched by this catastrophe, who have lost family and friends, and those who will bear the scar of these events for months to come, as they rebuild. Having worked and lived in the Oakland, Ca., area 10 years ago, I saw the impact those fires had first hand, and the tremendous aftermath families experienced, as they tried to put their lives back together.

Second, our thanks go out to our firefighters, police and emergency agencies as they continue to fight these blazes under incredibly tough, arduous conditions-putting their lives on the line.

Third, I hope those responsible for setting the torches will be hunted down, caught and incarcerated for the rest of their lives with no mercy!

Last, I wish all efforts be made to insure this does not occur in anyone else's neighborhood, and that the Healthy Forest Initiative be passed speedily, These fires are a direct consequence of not doing what is right. May common sense prevail before more neighborhoods suffer.