ARIZONA SGENE

E.J JOHNSOI{ executive vice president

IeU VERY pleased with the oppor- I tunity to periodically present news and information that has an impact upon our industry to the readership of this publication. I hope to continue in the fine tradition of my predecessor, Frank Davis, who has been of immense value since I joined the association on Aug. l.

As an update report on association activity, we are presently in a membership drive and are contacting firms within the state as well as those national or regional companies who have significant business interests in Arizona. We are encouraged with the initial response along with a timely recognition of the many useful and cost effective benefits that accompany membership.

The Education Committee is proceeding with plans to sponsor a series of retail lumber mini seminars in conjunction with the Western Wood Products Association. The seminars are planned for Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff.

We are also continuing to compile data and information about energy conservation and wood frame construction which will be of value to future association plans and programs. I am further pleased to report that the Young Lumbermen of Arizona, an organization within the ALBSA, have scheduled through next May a series of events and speakers that are designed to address educational, community and political concerns. This group is very active and well supported by its members. The ALBSA is very proud of their enthusiasm and is supportive of their efforts.

It was a personal pleasure to be afforded an early opportunity to attend the recent national convention of the NLBMDA here in Phoenix and to meet so many officers and members from throughout the country. I was most impressed with the professional quality and genuineness of those with whom I will be working during my tenure in this job. I also look forward to a lasting and mutually rewarding relationship with The Merchont.

Caruso

AVE Stookesberry, v.p. and gen. mgr. of Economy Lumber and Hardware, Inc., Greeley, Co., was elected president of the association at the 90th annual convention held in Denver, Sept. l5-17.

He accepted the gavel from outgoing president Jack Davis of Roswell, N.M., at the Lumbermen's Banquet and adjourned one of the most successful conventions in recent years.

More than 650 people participated in the convention and trade show at the Sheraton Denver Tech Center. Of that number, 190 were registererd dealers and their spouses, 163 were suppliers and 300 were local dealers, their employees and spouses who attended the Friday evening trade show.

Speakers included Sid Voorhees, the keynoter advocating people-oriented management; John Walker, past president of Lowe's, Inc.; Joy Craham, professional decorator and partner in Home Lumber, Alamosa, Co.

A total of 45 dealers and suppliers participated in a working lunch session. Mike Cundiff, ABZ Lumber, Denver; Steve Stookesberry, Economy Lumber, Denver; Ted Lott, Anderson Lumber, Blackfoot, Id.; Jerry Harwood, Harwood's Lumber, Rocky Ford, Co.; Marvin Steele, Sterling Lumber & Investment, Estes Park, Co., and Don Cameron, Cedar Lumber, Denver, were discussion leaders with Bud Howe, NLBMDA president, as the keynote speaker.

A Billion Here, A Billion There

Initial compilations of a NAWLA Sales Survey for 1982 by North American Wholesale Lumber Association confirm a number of dark suppositions about the depth of the three year depression in the forest products industry.

Through the first six months of 1983, there has been a substantial recovery in progress. Consider the following: In 1978, the NAWLA Sales Survey covered 4ll wholesale member firms which did approximately $9.8 billion in business. The 1982 Sales Survey covered 360 wholesale members who billed $5,451,226,000.00 during the last and worst year of the depression. A decline of over l2slo in the number of wholesale distribution companies and a dollar volume decline of 44.4V0!

Even more surprising are the changing faces in distribution. Over the 1978-1982 period, the association experienced an unbelievable turnover in wholesale member firms. Although NAWLA enjoyed a new membership of 161 wholesale lumber companies, its membership declined by 5l companies for a turnover of 51.590!

Yet, 1983 is clearly a recovery year. Bi-monthly sales statistics from the NAWLA's Observation and Expectation Report, indicate dollar volume of direct shipments is up 56.30/o and distribution yard billings are up 39.990 through June 30, 1983! In short, NAWLA wholesalers are selling at an $8.2 billion annualized clip through the first six months of the current year.

Additional market comparisons between 1978 and 1982 further explain the volatility in wholesale sales volume.

r Housing starts in 1982 were down 5290 from 1978.

. Last year's U.S. lumber consumption was down 3l .2Vo from 1978.

r Estimated wholesale value of 1982 production was 45.590 less than 1978.

It is no wonder that the wholesale level of the industry can speak of sales volume in the cliche of "a billion here. a billion there"!

With interest rates still relatively high, the wholesaler still must meet the challenge of providing finance to the industry during distribution. Improved market levels and volumes demand more operating capital. On December 31, 1982, NAWLA wholesalers reported current accounts receivables at $458,837,385.00. Six months Iater on June 30, 1983, those receivables had ballooned to $734,727,225.W. In addition. those NAWLA members who operate distribution yards saw their inventory dollar value jump 22.5s/o during the first half of 1983 to $396,694,339.00. Currently, the wholesale function of industry finance stands at $1,131,421,564.00!

To be sure, there have been some offsets to the problem of capital needs by the wholesaler. The continuing increase in telemarketing of product has resulted in what has been called the $21 million telephone bill. To be exact, NAWLA wholesale firms spent $21,369,400.00 on the telephone in 1982. Yet, this major cost of sales has certainly declined as a percentage of sales in the better business environment of 1983.