l-umber Production in the West

western mills, who found themselves in the economic trap of reduced acceSs to timber and lower lumber prices. Unfortunately, this squeeze forced many mills to close their doors forever," said WWPA pres. Robert H. Hunt.

The estimated wholesale value of the West's 1995 lumber production dropped 19.9Vo to $6.4 billion, the average value for lumber sold falling from $460 to $408 per thousand bd. ft, marking the third year in a row the average value of lumber sold has declined.

At the end of 1995,357 sawmills were operating in the West. In the past eight years, 345 lumber mills in the region have closed, with nearly two-thirds of them in Oregon, Washington and California.

Slow Markets, Tight Supply For Western Mills

Squeezed by high timber costs and lower product prices, western sawmills saw lumber production last year slump to a l3-year low, according to Western Wood Products Association's final industry figures for 1995.

Western lumber production fell 9.7Vo to 15.77 billion bd. ft.. the low- est since 1982, when a prolonged recession cut industry output to 13.72 billion bd. ft.

While western mill output was lower, overall lumber demand changed little. The U.S. used about 47.7 billion bd. ft., less than 1% below 1994.

"1995 was a difficult year for

WWPA estimates another l0 mills have closed this year. However, those mills still operating have increased production to meet expanded market demand. Through the first seven months of 1996, western lumber production is slightly ahead of last year's pace.

During 1995, mill production in the Inland West declined 13.4Vo or over I billion bd. ft. Production was down ll.5Vo in the California Redwood region, 5.7Vo on the Oregon and Washington coasts.

Lumber imports, mostly from Canada, rose 5.9Vo to a record 17.4 billion bd. ft., up nearly 50Vo over the past four years.

Oregon was once again the nation's top lumber producing state, manufacturing 4.95 billion bd. ft. valued wholesale at an estimated $1.98 billion.

Washington was No. 2 with 4.1 billion bd. ft. worth $1.6 billion, followed by California with 3.17 billion bd. ft. worth $1.4 billion. The three states accounted for more than threefourths of the West's lumber production.

Every western state but Utah saw lower production during 1995. The most dramatic decrease was New Mexico, where lumber Production dropped by more than half, from 176 million to 85 million bd. ft.

D-l-YDemand Holds At 5.6% Growth

Bigger spending on home rePairs and improvements, especially by consumers doing the work themselves will help boost U.S. demand for do-ir yourself home products 5.6Vo annually through 2000 to $16.4 billion at manufacturers' prices, forecasts the Freedonia Group.

Other factors include a favorable environment for existing home sales, a gradual increase in the average size of residential structures and the continued expansion of home centers and related retail outlets.

Though all product segments should rise, windows & doors, building materials, flooring, and heating & cooling equipment will show the strongest gains, due to performance improvements, aesthetic enhancements, simplified installation requirements and/or significant d-i-y market penetration potential. Windows & doors will grow the fastest at 7.2Vo annually.

Kitchen & bath and roofing, siding & insulation will climb nicely, reflecting greater d-i-y interest and increased product availability in a wider range of distribution channels' Hardware & tools and paints & coatings will rise more slowly due to already high d-i-y usage, intense price competition and limited opportunities for product innovation. Hardware & tools will retain its leading share among d-i-y home products with over one-quarter of total sales.

Nevertheless, market gains for d-iy products through 2000 will show little improvement over 1989-1995, since many consumers are paying down debts, foregoing larger home improvement projects and strengthening savings. Other limitations include increasing product durability, growing price sensitivity, and expectations of fewer people under 35, the age when d-i-y projects tend to drop.

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