Shaky Future For Retail Sales

Short term economic recovery will begin in March or April, but it will be a slow process. Long term, the 1990s and beyond pose a new and challenging environment for retailers, maintains ha Kalish of Management Horizons.

"Though the Federal Reserve initially lowered interest rates to stimulate spending, banks did not pass on the lower bonowing rate, creating a credit crunch. Consequently, small and medium size businesses did not expand as they normally do in such periods. The latest reduction in interest rates should help," he said.

America's tax policies have been out ofsync, he poinied out. "You don't implement a tax increase as a recession begins and now the government is talking tax cuts, which is the worst thing to do when inflation is under control."

Retail sales, approximately 33% of today's gross national product, will drop to about 3O% by the end of the decade, about $150 billion in today's dollars, Kalish predicted. His reasons: aging population; fewer young people; more money spent on health care, services, retirement and savings; fewer middle class; more upper and lower income groups; changing households; less than 50% maniedcouples; fewer women at home with time to shop; overstoring, and poor service.

Inmaking these observations, Kalish added that less time to shop creates demand for destination shopping with people wanting to get in and out fast. Because of the proliferation of shopping centers, he maintains, half of all retail transactions are at sale price today.

His predictions for the end of the decade: half of the retailers vanishing with mergers, acquisitions and mom and pop retirements; 10% reduction in retail space; declining store traffic; growth of catalogs; decline of malls with people making shorter destination trips to neighborhood stores; residential real estate decline; fewer housing starts; fewer babies; older customers who tend to stay put; more saving and less spending on durable goods.

Pacific Yew ls The One

Forest products industry organizations are responding to a possible shortage of Pacific yew, a species discovered to yield taxol, an anticancer drug. Weyerhaeuser has begun propagating yew at its Washington mrsery. Forest Service nurseries at Carson, Wa., Medford, Or., and Coeur d'Alene, Id., and the Chico Tree Improvement Cen-

The Treated Answer

Lumber, plywood, round stocK stokes, poles, & pilings Agency stomped, ground contocl fire retordont oressure-treoted wood products ter, Chico, Ca., also will undertake new propagation. The Bureau of Land Management's Horning Seed Orchard, Molalla, Or., is plaruring a seed germination, rooted cuttings and transplanting study.

Since most Pacific yew is found on federal lands managed by the USDA Forest Service and BLM, these agencies with the National Cancer Institute and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will prepare an environmental impact statement.

Builders' Conservation House

A resource conservation house is being built by the Research Center, a National Association of Home Builders subsidiary.

Products and systems that conserve natural resources including gray water recycling, water conserving fixtures, energy efficient design, enhanced durability, reduced maintenance and a kitchen with integrated recycling facilities will be used.

Abitibi Price, Armstrong Wodd Industries, Highland American, LiteForm and Owens Corning Fiberglas are among companies participating. The Upper Marlboro, Md., house is expected to be completed in May.

HCI Active In New Show

The Home Center Institute will take an active role in developing educational seminars for the first National Building Products Exposition and Conference, Aug. 14-17 at the Chicago

Hyatt Exhibition Center.

Larry P. Kunz, president and c.o.o., Payless Cashways, has agreed to give the keynote address at the show which will be held in conjunction with the Aug. 16-19 Hardware Industry Week and the National Hardware Show. Weyerhaeuser, Abitibi Price, Tilecera

CLEANLY THE BEST...

and Alcoa Building Products have booked booth space, according to general manager Pat Dolson. Because of a renovation underway at the Rosemont Convention Center, the location has been changed. It will now be closer to the McCormick Place Complex used bv the National Hardware Show.

Judge Halts Timber Sales

Timber sales on Bureau of Land Management land stopped with a decision issued by Judge Helen Frye Feb. 19. All 1992 sales including more than 20 awarded in January are included in the 60 day injunction which requires

BLM complete an adequate environmental impactstatement. The planBLM is currently working on is not due until 1993.

Oregon Govemor Barbara Roberts also took a swing at the timber industry, announcing her opposition to exempting 44 BLM timber sales from the

Endangered Species Act. She claimed that group failed to meet the burden of proof required to win an exemption.

Critics of the governor's action included Sen. Bob Packwood (R-Or.) who said,"It's very discouraging to have elected Oregon officials, who should have the best interests ofvoters atheart, showing nothing but contempt forthousands of Oregon's working men and women."

Secretary of the lnterior Manuel Lujan earlier created an interagency group to develop new owl recovery options with fewer economic dislocations. He said that the estimated 3l ,000 jobs that would be lost under the draft recovery plan was too much.

HadwoodAssn. Heads ForHarvaii

The Westem Hardwood Association will touch down in Kauai, Hi., May 2-6for its 1992 annual meeting.

Included on the program at the Sheraton Kauai at Poipu Beach, Koloa, are a full lineup of speakers, board of directors and business meetings, election of officers, tour, golf tournament, luau-style banquet and Polynesian show.