Doors, windows steady

H eN one approaches a forecast of business activity

UU for forest products in 1989, he or she might consider the general economy, interest rates, international trade, demand, supply, and housing starts. Then, for good measure, include the national elections in the U.S. and Canada.

The answer to all of the above is that 1989 looks pretty good for the forest products industry. It is unlikely that any ofthese areas will be great in the coming year, but they will all be pretty good.

Whoever the new President is in January, it is doubtful that there will be much impact until the end of 1989 or beyond. Should Prime Minister Mulroney be returned to ofllce, it will follow that the U.S.-Canadian Trade Agreement willbecome reality. That would be a plus for forest products trade.

We foresee fairly stable interest rates, a continuation of good, if not great, overseas export markets, pretty good demand and adequate supply. Our crystal ball for housing starts for 1989 is 1.4 million. This may mean softer housing activity but better remodeling demand.

The industry is heading towards some serious timber supply problems, but we don't see this as a factor through the first three quarters of next year.

Unfortunately, our "pretty good" scenario is only part of the profitability equation. Will 1989 demand command a market level for producers faced with higher raw material costs? Will the distributors of these products have a good 1989 with the continuing problem of inadequate margins on many lumber products?

By John P. Mikulak President National Wood Window & l)oor Association

THE 1989 demand for residenrial windows is ex- I pected to increase, with patio and exterior doors holding steady and the interior door market softening, according to a McGraw-Hill/LSl Systems study spon-

.. sored by the NationalWood Window 5r and Door Association.

Although new housing activity has been declining, growth continues in the single-family, detached housing market, projected to comprise 620/o of the total new housing market in 1989. The study, which contacted I 5,000 households nationwide, indicates that demand for windows will increase by 20/o to 41.7 million units, while demand for patio doors will remain at the 1988 level of approximately 4.8 million doors.

In 1987, sales of wood windows, including vinyl and metal clad units, exceeded sales of aluminum windows

Story at a Glance

Window demand will increase 2o/o... patio doors hold steady at 4.8 million.. interior door demand down 3o/o... more doors and windows used in each home.

for the first time in both the new construction and remodeling/replacement markets.

This trend is expected to continue through 1989-90, according to projections made by Ducker Research Company, Inc. for the American Architectural Manufacturers Association.

Due to the forecasted decrease in housing starts, interior door demand in 1989 is projected to be 33 million units, a 30/o decrease from 1988 levels. Exterior doors are expected to reach approximately eight million units, the same figure as in 1988. Still, renovation and remodeling will continue to have a significant impact on demand for residential interior and exterior doors.

While the overall market for these products is expected to soften somewhat over the next year, demand for exterior doors in renovation and remodeling is projected to increase 3%, bringing the units sold to 3.7 million.

According to the NWWDA study, the trend toward bigger and better homes is still strong. Builders are expected to place more windows and patio doors than before in both the single family attached homes and in single family detached homes, both of which continue to grow in popularity.