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of sour grapes, don't be surprised if 1983 turns out to be a pretty good year for selling lumber. Not a vintage year, but one that will leave lumber dealers with a good taste.

Housing starts next year won't be spectacular. Most analysts think the downturn in interest rates will result in somewhere between 1.3 and 1.4 million starts in 1983. Not the best numbers, but not the worst either.

Even more housing starts might be recorded next year in view of the November election returns. There's renewed talk about a jobs bill, and that could very well include a stimulus for homebuilding.

So residential construction in 1983 should be on the upswing, and possibly post a surge later in the year. More than half of those starts will be in the South.

What kind of starts are they likely to be? Experts say the strongest gains in homebuilding next year will be made by single-family houses and condominiums. But at the same time, we know that there's a trend to build smaller dwellings in order to make the sales price more affordable. With such vectors going in opposite directions, it's impossible to know the net effect on lumber consumption.

Overall, however, next year's residential construction is likely to push lumber sales up by healthy margins.

So far we have been looking only at stick-built residences. We should also look at manufactured housing or what used to be called mobile homes. Growth here has been phenomenal. Last year, factory-built homes accounted for 240,000 or 3690 of allnew single-familyhomes sold in the U.S. That's up from 2590 in the late '70s. Forecasters look for as many as 400,000 units annually in the next two or three years.

Steady growth is also predicted for the remodeling and repair market. R&R ranks second only to new construction in lumber consumption, accounting for 7 billion board feet of lumber in 1980. By paying more attention to the remodeling and repair consumer. those in the lumber industry can reap a nice profit.

Nonresidential construction typically lags behind the recovery of the residential market. But there are ripe opportunities in "non-res" for lumber dealers if they're enterprising. Wood is increasingly being used in the construction and decoration of churches, restaurants, small office buildings, malls and shopping centers. Total lumber sales for 1983 can be significantly boosted by cultivating the non-res market.

Story at a Glance

Residenlial construction

upswing 1.3-1.4 million housing starts . . . more manufactured housing .."non-res" market ripe pressuretreated, wood systems, overseas sales promising.

Pressure-treated lumber is more and more in demand, be it for decks, patios and fences for remodeling and repair or exposed beams and soaring trusses in the non-res sector. And pressure-treated Southern Pine lumber is in particular demand since it so readily accepts chemical preservatives. The dealer who's savvy about treated lumber will add immeasurably to his sales volume in 1983.

Then there are the burgeoning wood systems, such as Plen-Wood and the All-Weather Wood Foundation. Find out more about the advantages of these wood systems and you'll move more lumber.

Finally, for those who trade overseas, there's the promising export market for lumber, made even more promising by passage of the Export Trading Company Act, which allows companies to get together on joint export activities without fear of antitrust complaints. Southern Pine lumber in particular is finding a welcome climate in the Caribbean, thanks to some aggressive marketing efforts carried out on the islands.

All of these facets of the lumber market, if put together with diligence and enterprise, can make 1983 a year we can savor and point to with pride.