I o,,o'- ILOUISIANA OUTLOOK

JAMES L. DUKE

lI PNASERS continue to report slow lUlbusiness with few exceptions. Lumber and plywood mills report shipments are up with mills producingat9lo/o of capacity.

These increased shipments are going somewhere. Most firms are buying only what they sell and we have not had any indication of trends toward building inventory. This being the case, it might be wise to take an inventorY.

Gary Lusby, Steel Lumber, West Monroe, is the new president of the North-East Association. Larry Rogers, Rogers Manufacturing, Monroe, is the new v.p.; Bill Jones, Mid States Wood Preservers, Simsboro, treasurer. Jerry Piper will serve as program chairman; Ralph Norman, membership chairman. The group voted to set membership dues at $50 per year and to meet quarterly.

The New Orleans Association has elected Kenny Schultz, Clarkmart, pres'; Willie White, v.p., and Doug Lacquer, secretary. The group supports many ongoing projects including a I 2 week education program for emploYees.

Year's in that it provides us an opportunlty to look back at mistakes and ahead at opportunities.

Business has been rough as You know, a few bright spots, but also some rough ones.

But, we want this holiday greeting to you to be a happy one, one of brightness, of warmth and genuineness as we thank you and yours for your work with us and to invite you to let us know of any ideas or suggestions you have that would make our association better. Perhaps together we can find means ol enlarging our where-with-all and have more to share. Certainly all of us are a lot smarter than any one or two of us, and we want You to share your input with us so we can share more with you.

We do wish for you and Yours the very warmest of holiday greetings and wishes. We promise you we will truly try to do a better job during the New Year' For your part, call us up short when you think we have missed a good opportunity.

STAN OWENS erecutlve

vlce preeldent

TUg 58TH annual convention of rhe I Tennessee Building Material Association in Knoxville, Oct.2l-23, was most successful, with over 300 in attendance.

Charles Rhyne, Jr., partner in Rhyne Lumber Co., Newport, received the I lth annual Marshall Memorial Award presented by Olen H. Marshall, chairman of the board. Hamblen Lumber Co.. Mor- ristown. Glenda Graham, Tindell's Inc., Knoxville, and Scott Wright, City Lumber Co., Dyer, won door prizes.

Directors elected for three year terrns include Jack Cooper, gen. mgr., Schubert Lumber Co., Knoxville, District 2; Jimmy Orgain, v.p., Orgain Building Supply Co., Clarksville, District 6; Gilbert Smith, pres., A.J. Smith Co., Nashville; Bob Mayfield, gen. mgr., Forcum-Lannom Materials, Dyersburg, and Paul Moore, pres., Supreme Building Products, Inc., McMinnville, directors-at-large, and Rodes Hart, pres.,

Wholesale Building Products, Nashville, asociate director. Roy Lambert, pres., Lambert Lumber Co., Lewisburg, wils elected treasurer, replacing John Creeter, John W. Greeter Building Center, Tracy City, who resigned.

The Young Executives were in charge of the official headquarters suite and performed an excellent job as hosts for the convention.

Both the World's Fair and the excellent program attracted favorable comments. Mayor Randy Tyree, Dwight Kessel and Johnny Majors, assistant athletic director and head football coach, University of Tennessee, welcomed the delegates. Congressman John J. Duncan, second district, Tennessee, was the keynote speaker. Other sessions were addressed by Al Matamoros, Armstrong World Industries; Robert L. Remine, tar( mgr., Ernst & Whinney, Knoxville; and Bill Willis, gen. mgr., Tennessee Valley Authority.

by Don A. Gampbell

er€cuflve vlce precldent

I ONG-TERM interest rates won't

-drop

much further, and if they do continue to decline briefly, they probably will rebound early next year as the economy begins to recover. At least that's the contention of First Boston Corp. They predict further declines in shortterm rates with the Fed's discount rate falling to SVzElo or 890 by year end.

In searching for a panacea there is now a belief that if interest rates come down, everything would be solved. But the prob- lems facing the economy are really much more deep seated. Lower interest rates will not or cannot solve everything just as a flat rate tax or "supply side" fiscal policy can regulate the money supply day by day.

We talk so much about interest rates that I think we sometimes overlook the many other factors that are involved in this picture. We all know that business has not been good, but very few of us think about the consumer and what a strong financial shape he is in. He has ample cash on hand, while purchases and debt have been cut back sharply. Still, people are not spending the way optimists predicted. A little noticed, but major reason is thal the July tax cut, which was supposed to spur the recovery, has been stolen by the U.S. Treasury. New withholding schedules prevented anyone earning over $20,000 from getting anything but a token cut in July. The money has been withheld and will come out of government coffers when returns are filed early next yeiu. That should help the chances for a Spring recovery.

We said months and months ago that this tax cut would be of little benefit to the average consumer and it certainly has worked out that way. However, there was another reason why it did not work and that is the offsetting hikes in state and local taxes. These made the tax cut a non event. There will be more tax increases to make up for the short term falls caused by the on-going recession. Many company treasurers are already doing tax planning to minimize the effect of higher state and local rales.