Housing to lead industry gains

By William H. Stimpson President National Forest Products Association Washington, D.C.

rfHE manu- t facturers and marketers of wood products should be able to start catching up with the severely suppressed demand for theirproducts in 1983, if the forecasters are correct. While no one is predicting that housing will be at the record levels of the 1970s, indications are that home building will make a respectable rebound.

Virtually all forecasts for housing paint an optimistic picture, and this optimism is based on something more than wishful thinking. This time, all-important interest rates are lower. Housing starts are up. And manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers are gearing up for increased business next year. This atmosphere of cautious confidence is, in my opinion, well-founded.

Dependent as it is on long-term financial commitments, housing needs, above all, a stable economic climate, which now appears to be more than a possibility. There is continuing progress against inflation, a favorable outlook for food and energy prices and wage settlements, and a shift toward somewhat easier money by the Federal Reserve Board

All of these positive factors are bolstered by the existence of the undeniable demand inherent in the so-called post-World War II baby boom bubble in the nation's population mix-a generation of potential home buyers who will need housing in the 1980s.

How much improvement can we expect in the next twelve months? The nation's forecasters are close together in their predictions for something more than 1.3 million housing starts next year, a figure representing a 300/o jump over this (Please turn to pase 33)

Story at a Glance

Lower interest rates likely . . . loan applications up 1.3 million plus housing starts 280,000 mobile homes increased re. modelang, counter sales.