Slight hike for western lumber

IaIONSISTENT demand for lum\-,ber, apparent stability in log supplies, and current lumber prices should help western sawmills post a modest increase in production and results for 1997.

Next year should bring slightly slower, but still respectable markets for lumber, reported Robert H. Hunt, president of the Western Wood Products Association, during the group's recent fall meeting in Seattle, Wa.

Western producers, he explained, have taken greater advantage of stable demand in 1997 compared to other U.S. lumber suppli- sawmills in this region are becoming more competitive in supplying lumber this country needs," he said. "Some of the tough operating decisions western mills have had to make in recent years are now beginning to pay off."

The tough decisions

Lumber demand in 1997 should total 49.84 billion board feet, just 44 million board feet below the previous year's total, which was the second hishest on record. Demand has remained solid despite a modest decline in housing starts, the largest lumber use market.

Increases in non-residential construction such as schools and ers. Citing WWPA's semi-annual lumber forecast, Hunt said western lumber production should close this year up 3.6Vo, compared to a 2.3Vo increase in the South and a 4.2Vo decline in lumber imports.

1.375 million in 1998. Other than a slight increase in lumber used for materials handling (pallets and crating), all other markets are expected to see minor declines in 1998.

Lumber production in the West is expected to be 4.lVo lower next year, down to 16.l billion M. ft. Mills in the South should see production fall 5.2Vo to 14.8 billion M. ft. canadian imports are forecast to fall 2.2%. More lumber from non-Canadian countries is expected in 1998, but the volumes represent less than 4% of the total 17.19 billion bd. ft. of lumber imports.

"While the western lumber industry still faces important challenges, hotel projects, materials handling uses and furniture making have made up for the gap left by slightly slower housing.

Looking to 1998, Hunt said demand should slip to 48.19 billion bd. ft., a 3.3Vo decrease. Housing starts, which are expected to total 1.425 million this year, are forecast at

Exports from U.S. mills, which should increase 0.57o this year, are forecast to decline 6.8Vo in 1998 to 1.8 billion bd. ft.. Log exports should fall in 1997 and 1998, down 5.8% and 97o respectively.

"Although demand and lumber production will be lower in 1998, it should still be an above average year for western lumber mills," Hunt said. "Given the tough business conditions mills have endurcd this decade. that's welcome news."