Worst case scenario: no western wood

lly Troy Relnhrrt l.,xecutive Director l)ouglas Timber Operators Inc. Roseburg, Or.

home construction would be a double shock to the retail sales market.

The balance of trade must be considered. Trade has a direct impact on the amount of available supplies and cost of borrowing money. lncreased disparity in the balance of trade will result in less capital available for lending, causing increased interest rates and less demand for lumber products.

HE western forest products industry is under attack I by a movement which wants to limit, even eliminate, our opportunity to manage our private and public forest lands. Environmental special interest groups including the Audubon Society, Wilderness Society, National Wildlife Federation and others have a $250 million budget which they use in filing lawsuits, funding grass roots organizations and publishing misinformation about forest management.

These attacks, lawsuits and propaganda are putting a vise on the western forest products industry. More and more companies are looking to other regions and nations for their lumber needs.

While a large percentage of the softwood lumber consumed in this nation comes from the West. there are alternative sources. Canada, the southern and northeastern states and even the Soviet Union may be able to make up the 30% to 600/o shortage. Nevertheless, these alternative supplies will come at a cost to both the retailer and consumer.

In the short term, wood fiber and lumber needs can be met by Canada, but how long will these supplies last? Canada has not been harvesting on a sustained yield basis (never harvesting more than they can grow), as we have. Many forest economists estimate their lumber supply will be greatly reduced in the next decade.

Buying lumber from outside sources will cost jobs and reduce the earning power of the American worker, resulting in decreased demand for building materials. Less disposable income will impact the ability to build homes. Smaller, fewer homes will be built, diminishing lumber demand.

Home starts have decreased and stagnated in the last several years, but lumber demand has remained steady, because of the desire to build larger homes. A decrease in housing demand and a reduction in the lumber used in

Lumber supplies from other regions in this country are in question. The same environmental special interest groups are at work in these regions. They are using many of the environmental laws passed in the late 1960s and early 1970s to shut down the forest products industry. The Endangered Species Act. National Environmental Policy Act and the National Forest Management are being used in ways the authors never intended.

Environmental special interest groups have targeted wildlife species in every timber producing sector to stop forest management. Reducing raw material results in a decrease in finished lumber for sale and higher prices for both the retailer and the consumer.

Story at a Glance

Highe lumber prices altemative supply shaky drastic impact on building economy.

Alternative building materials will come into play as the lack of supply removes the competitive advantage of wood products. Steel, cement, brick and possibly even plastics will be utilized in the home construction and remodeling market which now consumes 70% of the wood fiber in the United States. These materials will come at both an economic and environmental cost to the consumer. Wood products are the only renewable resource used in housing and construction. Many alternative building supplies depend on foreign sources (oil for plastic and steel) or ate under similar environmental pressures from preservationist groups (mining).

Retailers should be concerned about supplies not only from the west, but from other parts of this country and the world. The nation already imports 30% of its lumber from foreign companies, thereby increasing the risk of shortages and cost impacts. A national policy of supplying timber for the domestic housing market must be realized above environmental special interests which wish to set timber aside, never to be managed.