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MARKET WATCH
Market Watch Market Watch
Trade & industry report with cap/hpi motorcycle editor Alan Elsworth
NEW MARKET
NOVEMBER IS THE LATEST MONTH OF MCIA registration figures and, yet again, it’s a game of two halves. November’s results continue the declining pattern seen every month since May, except for a positive blip in August sales. The year-to-date figure is still favourable compared to 2021, with the 2.1% increase equating to 2225 more bikes sold than the 108,383 last year.
A big winner during lockdowns, mopeds saw a resurgence in fortune during the Covid years with increased use in commuting and delivery sales after many years of decline. But after that rush, we are now in the middle of a return to perhaps more typical buying levels, with a significant percentage drop of 20% for the sector. As with the rest of the market, year-to-date sales are still marginally up.
Overall motorcycle numbers are 520 units lower than in the same month last year, a decrease of 7.8%. In terms of sectors, losses are found virtually across the board, with custom seeing the biggest drop at 55.9%, reflecting a poor yearto-date performance. Naked, one of the largest classifications, is the only other sector in a negative position for the year with just over 1000 bikes fewer registered than the 23,517 of 2021.
After an extended period when the evergreen Honda PCX 125 was unavailable, it was almost inevitable that once stock arrived it would again be the best-selling PTW in the country. November’s sales represented a third of the Honda’s total for the month, helping the brand to yet another dominant performance.
Although year-to-date registrations are still positive, there is increasing wariness around the economy, which feeds the feeling that demand is still under a cloud of uncertainty. As the possibility of recession increases, expectations are for a slower start to the year as far as new bike sales go.
MOTORCYCLE FUTURES
THE EUROPEAN ASSOCIATION OF Motorcycle Manufacturers (ACEM) recently held its annual conference on the future of the motorcycle industry, and it should come as no surprise that there was a particular focus on decarbonisation.
Discussions revolved around both positives and negatives of the move away from ICE-powered two wheelers, including the costs and acquisition of raw materials, increasing investment in R&D, and intensifying cross-company standardisation through, for example, the Swappable Batteries Motorcycle Consortium (SBMC).
The electrification of motorcycling is already well underway, with many of the big name brands soon to be offering battery powered machines which will add to the growing number of models already available from specialist manufacturers. However, there are other ways to reduce the use of fossil fuels in engines, with manufacturers also exploring alternatives such as hydrogen and synthetic fuels. Although uncertainty still surrounds their use, especially for motorcycles, they may appease the leisure rider who will have to go green eventually but still wants the noise and traditional character of a reciprocating engine. However, as was discussed at the conference, both hydrogen and synthetic fuels will suffer from a similar problem as electrics do with charging, which is the creation of sufficient infrastructure to support widespread use.
Moving on to safety, attendees at the ACEM conference were pleased with the increased attention to twowheelers in the new Euro NCAP roadmap 2025-2030, particularly the recognition of motorcycle and scooter riders as vulnerable road users (VRUs). The inclusion of evolved two-wheeler scenarios for car Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) in the Euro NCAP’s roadmap will help drivers avoid hazardous situations in many traffic situations. It will also contribute to a decreased number of collisions with two-wheelers. This level of recognition also extends to the inclusion of twowheeler scenarios for assessment in commercial van safety ratings and the further development of truck safety around crash avoidance technology. AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE new season, the chance of dealers disposing of quality machines grows less. But there has been an increase in entries of later-plate examples from PCP hand-backs. Most of this year, there have been more of the end-of-term models being snapped up by dealers before they get to the return to funder option. This has been the case while prices have been high and availability low, but with the concerns previously mentioned, the likelihood of a dealer retaining anything offered in part-exchange or straight buy reduces.
The latest BCA auction had around a third more entries when compared to the same time of year in 2021. Dealer and BMW direct entries were at similar levels, the 30 or so extra machines came directly from Black Horse disposal.
Prices compared to CAP reported figures for the sale were 97%, which is as expected at this time of year and is slightly up from the previous sale in October. Compared to the previous sale, we saw an increase of 9% in conversions, with 59% selling from the 120 entries.
USED MARKET
THE WORD ON THE STREET IS of slower winter retail activity, which is pretty much the case every year! What appears to be a change from what we have seen over the last decade is where the early birds try to catch the trade worms for the new season. As there is an element of uncertainty around, there is a feeling that the search for stock going into the upcoming season has not hit a brick wall, but has slowed. This month has seen some easing back of prices, mainly in the larger engine machines that attract higher ticket prices. Retail quality used 125s are always challenging to find and, as always, will attract a robust trade price, with this month being no different. Therefore, the majority of prices in this month’s data have remained stable. AUCTION OVERVIEW
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