PUTTING CLASSICS IN THE PICTURE

Classic market Putting classics in the picture

In a year that has produced one shockwave after another – war, raging inflation, instability within government, climate anxiety – the traditionally firm bedrock of the UK classic motorcycle market has started to show some cracks. Brian Crichton investigates an industry that buys with its heart

It remains a multi-million pound industry, but during 2022 the classic scene started to shift from a seller’s to a buyer’s market.

In general terms it is becoming harder to sell a classic bike. It takes longer and the market is becoming very price sensitive. British classic prices are easing – our research estimates a general drop of approximately 20% in values. There are now plenty of British bike private sellers sitting at home waiting for the phone to ring. It’s a cold wind feeling.

Other emerging trends during the year include: • Unpredictability in what will sell and how much it will fetch • Greater price sensitivity. • Falling prices for popular

British motorcycles • Growing influence from the

Japanese classic market. • Greater use of no-reserve and lower bottom estimates by auction houses • Increasing interest in topflight Italian performance classics • Increasing interest in lightweight classics • Growing international interest as pound weakens

“Nobody needs a classic bike,” says William Dawkins of Classic Bike Imports, Worcestershire, who started dealing in 2001 and importing in 2004.

“We’re selling a product

that people don’t need, and this year has been challenging to say the least. Our costs have gone up because of the weak pound against the dollar and the cost of shipping.

“In lockdown we did insanely well, but since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war and the cost of living crisis, prices have been rising and everyone is nervous. That said there still seem to be plenty of people eating in restaurants. We may simply be talking ourselves into a recession.

“2023 prospects? I think it’s a case of survival for the next 12 months.

“But there’s a plus side. Our customers are mainly 50 to 65-year-olds and they are the wealthiest they have ever been. They’ve paid the mortgage and the kids have gone. It’s the wives who are nervous!”

Chris Bunce of Classic Super Bikes in Hampshire says: “Buyers are scarce. 2022 was quiet, and it’s now a buyer’s market. Lots of people are thinning their collections.

“At Stafford in April I took five bikes and didn’t sell one. For October Stafford I smashed the prices down and sold three.

“US buyers kept us afloat in 2022 because the pound was weak against the dollar, and the UK is attractive to overseas buyers.

“2023 prospects? God knows. But classic buyers are passionate enthusiasts who will find any excuse to buy. Given hard times they are just as likely to treat themselves with a comfort buy.

“The early Japanese market is pretty good, and some bikes have come back in reach for some buyers. Investment collectors are more likely to be affected by the world economy. Interest rates are going up so they will be looking to invest their money other than in bikes. If they do buy bikes, they will be looking for bargains. They are ruthless in what they are willing to pay. I don’t think we will see much of collectors

Mortons Media Group events director Nigel Hole on a works Cagiva at October Stafford

Classic buyers are passionate enthusiasts who will find any excuse to buy. Given hard times they are just as likely to treat themselves with a comfort buy

Kettering Classics – 750 Matchless and 650 AJS CSR in foreground

Current world champion #77 Dominique Aegerter WorldSSP

in 2023. The market will move back into enthusiasts’ hands.

“Interest is growing in smaller bikes. We all had to start on smaller machines and when you get older you want to go back to them. It’s a big thing at the moment with mopeds. It’s mental – £10,000 for a Yamaha FS1-E! But it’s not going to last. In 15 years time it will all have gone and they will be worthless.

“I think 125s have a future, and bikes such as LC Yamahas and Suzuki triples. Some are already crazy money, but at the same time they are still affordable. And trail bikes are a bit of a thing – XT 500 Yamahas, DT 175s and so on.”

Classic trials rider Bunce started trading in 2007. “A clever dealer would be buying now,” he adds.

Andy Smith at Kettering Classic Motorcycles in Northamptonshire reports a significant slowdown in sales in 2022 following fair sales in 2020 and 2021 when owners and buyers had time on their hands to indulge during Covid lockdowns.

Steve Randall who runs Jampot Spares for AJS and Matchless owners tells the same story. He sees it as priority to recruit younger riders to the classic scene.

AUCTIONS – BONHAMS

Auctions in general had a reasonable time in 2022, though prices were falling at the end of the year.

Auction activity was bolstered during Covid when more buyers took the auction route rather than the usual private sales route.

Sensitive to a changing market, the auction houses have been persuading more vendors to put bikes in at no reserve or at lower estimates. It’s not a new tactic, but it has taken on more relevance, and it has worked. A recent Pugh auction eschewed any reference to values, letting the market find its own way.

Bonhams proved that a rabbit can still be pulled out of the hat by scoring an autumn near record sale – £3.66m gross, 96% sell through – at the October Stafford Show. The house previous best was £3.9m (April 2019 Stafford).

Lead bike was a 1974 Ducati 750 Super Sport at £172,500 (including premium) illustrating just how much some topflight Italian bikes have become a new elite in the classic world. 

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Julie Diplock oversees trophy presentations by Mike Jackson (right) at October Ardingly show

Bonhams chairman Malcolm Barber H&H auction at National Motorcycle Museum – 291 lots entered for 7 December end of year sale

Twenty years ago, £25k would have seemed an all but impossible dream. Bonhams had pitched its superb example at £140-£170k estimate and proved it was no pie in the sky evaluation. The biggest surprise was £88,500 for a 1956 Jawa 500 GP DOHC fourstroke road racer which had been estimated at £14-£16k.

Bonhams attracts an international clientele and had interest from 29 countries in October including India and South Africa, indicating a growing global interest in classic motorcycles.

“The sale demonstrated the strength of the worldwide market for classic motorcycles,” commented Bonhams chairman Malcolm Barber.

A Ducati also headlined Silverstone Auction’s 12-13 November NEC Classic Show sale. This one a low mileage 1995 916 SP2 at £42,750. Silverstone lists this as a world record for the model. It was backed up by a 2006 999R Ducati at £29,250, illustrating serious interest in more modern classics.

In Yorkshire, TV regular Mathewsons (Bangers & Cash) brings far more classic bikes to auction than its programmes reflect. The family’s October sale included 105 bikes of which 79 sold under the hammer. Star turn was a 1982 Triumph Bonneville Royal Wedding at £8100.

Family head Derek Mathewson says some previous auctions have topped 120 classic bikes, 2015-2016 being their best bike years so far.

“2023 will prove as difficult as ever and interest in heavy British bikes will continue to diminish,” he forecast, reflecting the ageing following for British classics.

MORTONS MEDIA

The classic show scene has been more upbeat and faces 2023 with optimism. Following the shutdown of many events during the 2020-2021 Covid years, just being able to put events on has been a relief.

Lead player Mortons Motorcycle Media plans a full calendar in 2023.

“There’s significant appetite in the classic world for events,” said MMG commercial, events and marketing director Nigel Hole. “Enthusiasm remains high. People are still investing and buying and selling. The market is still very buoyant and the autojumble scene is still strong.

“October Stafford [which included the Bonhams auction] was back to rude health. It wasn’t the biggest, but it was one of the best shows we have put on. We had more clubs than ever before and had to turn some away. Stafford showgoers spend a lot of money. They have disposable income and are not tyre kickers. Their pensions are going up and the audience that makes up the classic sector is better off than other sectors.

“We are driving hard at getting a younger audience. We saw more in the 30s and 40s age bracket at Stafford than ever before. Modern classics and interest in modern retros are growing trends.

“We are firing on all cylinders. I think this year will be a good year for classic and vintage.”

MMG publishes 23 regular frequency magazine titles of which eight are devoted to the classic two-wheel scene.

ELK PROMOTIONS

Independent show promoter Julie Diplock of ELK Promotions, relieved to be getting back to some form of normality following the Covid void, said: “2022 was hard work and I have had to make some changes, but the market started to come back quicker than I thought it would.

“Trading is still difficult because Covid is still having an effect, but overall 2022 was a very good year. People want to get out there, buy, and socialise. It’s a big market and traders with high value stock are in demand.

“While everyone is still jittery about imminent recession, the market is not collapsing. The classic bike market has been overheated and some bikes have been over-priced. So some prices have come down. But the demand is still there.

“There has been so much doom and gloom. It’s not going to be an easy ride but the classic bike market is still strong.

“I’m running my usual seven events in 2023 [Kent and Sussex] and I have some ideas in the pipeline.”

CONCLUSION

evidence of inflation at more than 10% and the alarming jump in the cost of living, prospects for 2023 don’t look as rosy as they might. The British movement is eroding. Age, Covid, deteriorating roads, driving standards and ambulance response times have made many owners lose confidence. But while the older British brigade goes over the hill, the younger rising sun riders are going for the bikes they dreamed of in their youth. So Japanese classics are taking up much of the slack. The classic scene is down, but a long way from being out. Overseas interest is a positive factor and Great Britain is replete with desirable classics, some at extreme high value. Bonhams scored more than £200,000 each for two Brough Superiors in April, for example. The classic scene defies logic and cold analysis. It runs on a warmer, emotion driven level. Dealer Williams Dawkins is right when he says nobody needs a classic bike. But the passion to own, buy and sell classic bikes burns with a deep-seated heat. The market buys with its heart rather than its head. It’s impossible to predict what is going to happen in 2023 in any sphere of life, judging by current events. The classic scene has taken a knock but it’s a long way from being destabilised. A classic bike provides a great escape from the woes of the world. The classic market, now in its fifth decade, will surely retain its multi-million pound status and remain a vibrant part of the UK two-wheel industry.  www.britishdealernews.co.uk