MARKET WATCH

Market Watch Market Watch

Trade & industry report with cap/hpi motorcycle editor Alan Elsworth

NEW MARKET

THE MCIA’S NEW REGISTRATION FIGURES FOR October were hardly encouraging, with sales negative to the tune of 6%. However, as the yearto-date totals move into six figures (103,961), they were still up by 2.8% compared to the first ten months of 2021.

After a sustained period of revival, the moped sector is now starting to suffer at a higher rate than the overall market, with a reduction of 10.9%. However, in actual numbers, it’s still a small part of the market, especially when the monthly loss was only 72 units; but it can easily be forgotten that the possible long-term damage a shrinking moped market has on this vital industry sector. Over the last couple of years, the increased sales and usage of mopeds have been a consequence of circumstances caused by the pandemic. 16-year-old riders have increasingly commuted using two wheels due to a lack of public transport availability and reluctance to be in crowded buses and train carriages. Some might also have realised how much better two wheels can be when considering their time and independence. Many of us started our motorcycling adventures this way, and as an industry, we can only hope that some of the next generation of riders could emerge from these newly-found commuters. After all, we desperately need new blood.

When the electric sub-4kW numbers are factored into the moped figures, things look even worse. Electric machines generally had a bad month in October, but considering the actual registrations are relatively small numbers, the percentage decrease can look horrendous. The rest of the electric segments are also suffering over the shorter term, but we all realise this will change as technology advances and legislation drive more consumers to plug in.

USED MARKET

At the end of the year, thoughts in the trade are turning towards getting Christmas out of the way and starting preparations for the new season. Stock has been increasingly difficult to source, and the traditional “purchasing holidays” at the end of the year have been consigned to history due to the well-documented stock shortages.

The big advantage for the motorcycle trade (which other automotive sectors were slow to adapt to) has been the use of remote selling, which it had been doing for some time before lockdowns.

The economic impact moving into the new season is going to hurt, as interest rates for both consumers and businesses rise, affecting not only the cost of borrowing for both, but also stock levels for the latter. Add in other inflation drivers, and consumers will be spooked until some clarity becomes evident. The effect on used prices is, as could be expected in the circumstances, static, with research suggesting a consumer pause. Prices have changed in both directions in this month’s valuation report, but generally, no major changes have been made.

FUTURES MARKET

AT THE CONCLUSION OF ANOTHER unsettled year, the motorcycle industry is still holding its own. Supply of both new and used machinery in the short term is still less than ideal and the shortage of stock is continuing to keep current prices robust.

The war in Ukraine is still not looking like it will end any time soon. Economic experts are not only predicting increasing inflation and interest rates but there are now predictions of a longer period of financial instability and increases in costof-living budgets. It’s currently looking less rosy, but if we rewind the clock a decade to the last world-wide financial meltdown; motorcycle sales remained strong well after other industries suffered.

Cap hpi still forecasts current values will remain strong, and by the time we are out of the other end, and as people start to spend again, it would not be a leap of faith to suggest that demand will be higher than supply. With that in mind, except for some minor corrections, mainly in current models still finding their place in the market, futures values are still being reported as strong.

Next year’s sales comparisons will be made against 2022 year totals, a year in which the market has not suffered any forced closures or lockdowns. At that point, looking at monthly figures and judging how the industry is performing will offer a better and clearer reflection on performance. There is the greater world economy to consider as we move forward, and not wishing to spread too much doom and gloom, the outlook for that is in the hands of people outside our control. AUCTION OVERVIEW

AT THE LOW POINT IN THE SALES cycle, realised prices at auction will inevitably mirror trade in general. A short and simple review of sales over the last research period shows that the amounts sold are down to half the entries and return around 5% behind reported numbers overall. As the new year turns, expectations are similar, with a slower start in 2023 until the dust settles.

Cost-of-living budgets will be under further pressure next year

Looking to from only

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