UK Political landscape

Praying for boring: The political landscape

David Park, Public Affairs Manager

The word ‘unprecedented’ has been worn out over the past six years. But trying to describe the last few months in politics is difficult without it. We have seen 80 (yes, eight zero) Ministers resign or be sacked since the start of 2022 and since July we have had three Prime Ministers, four Chancellors, and a ridiculous number of Cabinet post changes: some mayflies have lived longer than Grant Shapps lasted as Home Secretary. In searching for alternatives, we could opt for quoting Malcolm Tucker from The Thick of It, and use ‘omnishambles’, but that doesn’t do it justice. The Collins Dictionary word of the Year was ‘Permacrisis’, which perhaps is closer to the mark. At the end of the day, the period has been chaotic, disrupting and frankly embarrassing: we can only hope that the situation now stabilises. We certainly need some stability. Having navigated the Scylla of Brexit and the Charybdis of Covid, businesses had been waiting for a lull in the storm to plan, prepare, invest, and grow. Yet the raw materials crisis has continued, abetted by the fallout from the Ukraine war, which is also helping to drive a worldwide energy crisis.

What can we expect to see happen over the coming months?

By the time you read this article, the Autumn Statement will have taken place. It is being trailed as a reaction to the short-lived Truss/ Kwarteng ‘dash for growth’ and seems likely to include public spending cuts and some tax increases to soothe the markets. How deep those cuts will be and where they will fall will be a difficult balance of politics and economics. However, it seems that there will be some return to the Osbornean style of austerity.

We still need to work closely - and increasingly urgently - with Defra, to reform the UK REACH legislation. As we have stated on many occasions before, UK REACH as currently constituted is overly burdensome and costly for businesses. It also puts huge strain on the limited resources of the UK regulators. We are seeking a priority meeting with the latest Secretary of State for the Environment, Therese Coffey, and her junior Minister Rebecca Pow, who is also a returner to the Department, to discuss REACH and plans for a UK Chemicals Strategy. Pow will also take on the waste and recycling, and air quality briefs, so we will need to work closely with her as well on issues like PaintCare, Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) for packaging, and VOCs.

There is another new Secretary of State for Business (the fifth since I started working for BCF in January 2020) in the form of Grant Shapps. As I write, we still do not know which of his Ministerial team will have responsibility for industry and chemicals. We will need to work closely with BEIS to help us win our argument with Defra on REACH, but in the near-term also on issues to do with energy cost support for members. Of course, it is not just costs that are important but energy supply. National Grid has been ‘rolling the pitch’ on the prospect of blackouts over the winter. We are, therefore, talking to BEIS to explain particular issues that scenario would create for BCF’s members – and thus their customers - and to establish what plans, if any, are in place to prevent or mitigate such an eventuality.

Some possible good news might soon emerge from discussions to amend the Northern Ireland Protocol, which I know is making life difficult for many members. Recent press reports are quite encouraging with new systems being proposed and tested and there is a general sense that a solution might not be far off. We have our fingers crossed on this point.

That probably then takes us up to next Spring’s Budget, which will be the last real opportunity for the Chancellor to introduce measures that will be felt before the last date a General Election can be held, which is January 2025. There had been promises of reforms next year to R&D tax credits, or taxes on capital investment, in order to try and assist businesses. Whether this will be delivered or not is now uncertain. Room for giveaways currently looks limited in the extreme.

It is also possible that there will be further political implosions, with yet more Ministerial churn. Should pressure build on Rishi Sunak to a politically fatal extent, it seems very unlikely the constitution could bear yet another switch of Prime Minister without recourse to an election. Of course, he may decide to go for an early election of his own accord should circumstances offer a winning opportunity, although the most likely scenario is still an election called sometime in 2024. Be that as it may, BCF has also already been keeping all bases covered and has been speaking with the relevant Opposition spokespeople to make sure our concerns and needs are properly communicated.

To be honest, from BCF’s perspective, we are praying for boring over the next few months. Boring will allow time for Ministers to learn their briefs, for issues like REACH to be addressed, and for other problems like the NI Protocol to be hopefully improved. We can but hope…