Decommissioning costs

In the US, a 2016 audit by the US Office of the Inspector General concluded that the cost estimates should be based on the best available knowledge from research and operational experience. Yet, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) formula for estimating decommissioning costs is based on studies conducted between 1978 and 1980. The audit recommended that the funding formula be revaluated to determine whether a site-specific cost estimate would be more efficient. During the audit, an operator stated that the NRC’s minimum formula estimated decommissioning costs of US$600 million, while the site-specific decommissioning cost estimate done by the operator was around US$2.2 billion.256

In Germany, the cost of both decommissioning and long-term waste management is based on expert opinions. On behalf of the operators, the private company NIS (Siempelkamp) uses cost models for both types of light water reactors to estimate decommissioning cost by adjusting the strategy and the reactors in question. On behalf of the utilities, the private and utility-owned GNS estimated the costs for waste management based on schedules and cost estimates produced by the German Federal Office for Radiation Protection (BfS, now BfE) for the disposal facilities. The cost estimates produced by the private companies for the utilities are not public.257

DECOMMISSIONING COSTS

As of today, only a few reactors have been decommissioned, while hundreds of plants worldwide are preparing to be decommissioned in the coming decades. In early 2018, 154 units were awaiting or are in various stages of decommissioning, while only 19 reactors (with a capacity of only around 6 GW) had been fully decommissioned (see Table 1).258 This poor outcome and a lack of country-specific decommissioning experience also leads to generally underestimated decommissioning costs. Nuclear power plants were built with operation in mind, and until now, most plants currently in the decommissioning process or entering it were built at a time when the idea of decommissioning was not yet fully conceptualized. As a result, countries have to approach decommissioning using trial-and-error methods.

A lack of country-specific experience leads to generally underestimated decommissioning costs. Nuclear power plants were built with operation in mind and at a time when the idea of decommissioning was not yet fully conceptualized. As a result, countries approach decommissioning using trial-and-error methods.

In order to make different estimates between different countries comparable, the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) developed the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC), which recommends categorizing decommissioning costs into eleven distinct categories. However, most cost estimation methodologies do not use this classification. The cost estimations for decommissioning also heavily depend on the reactor technology and the decommissioning strategy. For example, at some plants in the US, large components such as the reactor pressure vessel and the steam generators were removed and disposed of in one piece, a strategy that heavily reduces costs. However, in Germany, large components must by law be taken apart on site. In general, the owners or licensees are responsible for developing cost estimates for decommissioning, which they submit periodically to the competent authority for review or approval (for example, every three years in Finland, and every five years in Switzerland).

256 US Office of the Inspector General 2016, Audit of NRC’s Decommissioning Funds Program, US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board. 257 Irrek, W., and Vorfeld, M. 2015, “Liquidity and valuation of assets in unrestricted funds from provisions set up for nuclear decommissioning, dismantling and disposal — Brief study”, Alliance 90/The Greens parliamentary group in the German Bundestag. 258 Schneider et al. 2018

Data on actual decommissioning costs are scarce, with only three countries having completed decommissioning projects to full dismantling. In the US, where the most reactors were completely decommissioned (13 of 34 closed nuclear power plants as of mid-2018) decommissioning costs show a high variance, from US$280/kW to US$1,500/kW.259 In Germany, only two commercial reactors have finished decommissioning: Gundremmingen-A was completed after 23 years of dismantling work with a latest estimate of around €2.2 billion in 2013 (US$2.5 billion) or €9,300/kW (US$10,500/kW). At Würgassen, decommissioning costs were around €1.1 billion (US$1.2 billion) or €1,700/kW (US$1,900/kW).260 All German decommissioning projects experienced cost increases up to six percent per year, which were much higher than the general inflation rate and the assumed nuclear-specific inflation rate. Despite the cost increases, the estimated costs for future decommissioning (without casks, transport etc.) of around €19.7 billion261 (US$22.2 billion) or €830/kW (US$940/kW) are still based on the above mentioned and not publically available cost models.

In the Czech Republic, the estimates for decommissioning its six VVER reactors are between US$412532/kW (or around US$1.8 billion). VVER reactors, a series of pressurized water reactor designs originally developed in the Soviet Union, have not yet been decommissioned anywhere in the world. The most advanced decommissioning project is Greifswald in Germany, where the latest cost estimate for the five units and the smaller Rheinsberg unit is also around €6.5 billion (US$7.3 billion) or €3,090/kW (US$3,490/kW), which is about eight times higher per kW than the estimate for the same type of reactors in the Czech Republic.

In France and the UK, not one nuclear power plant has been fully decommissioned. In 2018, EDF estimated total costs of around €31.7 billion EUR (US$35.8 billion) for decommissioning for its entire fleet. For the 58 operational reactors the figure was €25 billion (US$28 billion) or around €400/kW (US$450/kW)262 . This is very low by international standards. The combined costs for the legacy fleet consisting of six Uranium Naturel Graphite Gaz (UNGG) reactors, one PWR, one heavy water gas-cooled reactor (EL-4), and the fast breeder reactor Super-Phenix have increased steadily and doubled since 2001, when they were estimated to be around €3.3 billion (at that time around US$3.1 billion).263 In a recent audit, the French National Assembly concluded that it cannot share EDF’s overly optimistic view on decommissioning and expects a much more expensive and technologically challenging process. In the UK, the Nuclear Decommissioning Authority expects decommissioning costs for the 26 Magnox reactors alone of around £15.3 billion (US$19.4 billion) or 3,500 £/kW (US$3,950/kW).264 In 2018, EDF Energy estimated the costs for decommissioning its 14 GCRs and 1 PWR to be around €15.7 billion (US$17.7 billion) or around €1,800/kW, which is very low for GCRs, especially if one considers the technological problems EDF encounters at home with its GCRs, the costs are steadily increasing, and the proposal to delay full decommissioning until the beginning of the 22nd century.265 The European Commission aggregates the various decommissioning costs estimates of the Member States (excluding the Netherlands and Italy) to around €123 billion (US$139 billion).266

259 Ibid. 260 Wealer, B., et al. 2015, Stand und Perspektiven des Rückbaus von Kernkraftwerken in Deutschland (Status and Perspectives on the Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Plants in Germany), DIW Berlin and TU Berlin. 261 Warth & Klein Grant Thornton AG Wirtschaftsprüfungsgesellschaft 2015, Gutachtliche Stellungnahme zur Bewertung der Rückstellungen im Kernenergiebereich (Evaluation on the Assessment of Provisions in the Nuclear Power Sector). 262 EDF 2019 263 Government of France Cour des Comptes (Accounting Office) 2014, “Le coût de production de l’électricité nucléaire — Actualisation 2014” (The cost of production of nuclear energy, updated 2014). 264 Nuclear Decommissioning Authority 2015, Annual Report and Accounts — Financial Year April 2014 to March 2015 265 Schneider et al. 2018 266 European Commission 2016, Nuclear Illustrative Programme presented under Article 40 of the Euratom Treaty for the opinion of the European Economic and Social Committee.