The World we live in

Dr. Mitra Bandhu Poudel Principal, LACM

Introduction

This paper will discuss the complication of some suggested areas of interests and interdependence between those areas. Following pairs of inter-dependencies have been discussed in this paper. Prior to the discussion of the effects of the pairs, the paper will briefly touch upon the effects of COVID-19 in global economy.

1. Food and natural environment

2. Communication and virtuality

3. Demography and energy supply

4. Technology and security

5. Demography and ambition

Covid-19 and its effects

The world has been suffering from unprecedented COVID-19 disease caused by corona virus which was emerged in the city of Wuhan, China by the end of 2019. On December 31, 2019 Chinese authorities alerted the World Health Organization of an outbreak of the virus(Science daily, March 17, 2020). The analysis by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs(DESA) said the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting global supply chains and international trade with over 100 countries closing national borders during the past month. Economic Times further state that the global output would contract by 0.9 percent instead of growing by 2.5 percent in 2020, further adding that the scenario is based on demand side shocks of different magnitudes in China, Japan, South Korea, the US and the EU with the 50 percent decline of oil price against the baseline of US Dollar 61 per barrel (Economic times, April 20, 2020). The OECD predicts that the global economy will still grow in 2020, although growth predictions have fallen by halt due to corona virus. Duffin (2020) states that should the Covid-19 become a global pandemic, most major economies will lose at least 2.4 percent of the value their GDP over 2020. It is sad to note that there is US$ 810.7 billion loss in global business travel revenue due to this deadly virus as of April 03, 2020. Global change in flight frequency in the week of April 20, 2020 dropped by 66 percent. Mahar (2020) argues that World’s topmost economies such as US, China, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Japan and many others are at the verge of collapse. In just a week 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment and a week later another 6.6 million people started searching for job. Experts believe that the world has been experiencing the most difficult economic situation since the World War II (Mahar, 2020). As of April 23, 2020(3.50pm), according to covidvisualizer.com there are 1740902 active cases of Corona virus infected people in the world. The total number of deaths reached at 185059(6.97 percent) and total number of recoveries is 727844(27.43 percent). So, the world we are living has gone through a painful period of Covid-19 pandemic.

Lets discuss on the inter-dependencies of the pairs.

As the world population has expanded, the demand for food, energy and water (which are referred to as the ‘nexus’ of sustainable development) has seen a rapid increase (Ritchie & Roser, 2020). The authors further state that not only has demand for all three (food, energy and water) increased, but they are also strongly interlinked. Water and energy are required for food production. Traditional energy production demands water resources and agriculture provides a potential energy source.

Ritchie and Roser(2020) claim that food accounts for over a quarter(26 percent) of global greenhouse gas emission and half of the world habitable land is used for agriculture. Similarly, 70 percent of global fresh water withdrawals are used for agriculture. And, 78 percent of global ocean and fresh water eutrophication (pollution of waterways with nutrient rich pollutants) is caused by agriculture. This justifies the environmental impacts of food and agriculture.

2. Communication and Virtuality

Gisby (2016) states that with regards to communication and virtuality, intensified competition within and across industries is very likely to happen in terms of shortterm effects because firms become increasingly more agile and responsive to market opportunities. He further argues that in terms of long term effects, new business models are likely to be necessary. Businesses are likely to be the most powerful ones if they are extremely well networked and fully exploited their knowledge or intellectual capital.

Carmichael (2010) argues that there is some evidence in the literature of the utility of virtual reality applications for the development of business communication skills, particular through socially immersive and networked environments (as cited in Gisby, 2016).

By paying particular attention to the relevant psychological implications, Liber (2010) comments that virtually networked businesses have been recognized and that the collective wisdom in their employees will keep them one step ahead (as cited in Gibsy, 2016 p.4). Personal and shared communication technologies can be used to support the growth and functionality of social networks (Suh & Kim, 2011).

Wallace (2020) states that the complexities can easily be solved by modern b2b e-commerce platforms and now, business to business brand of all sizes are looking to optimize their e-commerce channel for sustainable growth over the next decade. A 2018 survey found that 48 percent of companies now conduct 50-74 percent of all corporate purchases online. There are about 23 percent of companies do 75 percent or more of their purchasing online. By the most recent report, as of 2018, global B2B e-commerce had already surpassed $ 10.6 trillion in revenue (Wallace, 2020).

World Bank (2020) has come up with the resource list by its EdTech Team for remote learning, distance education and online learning during the Covid-19 pandemic, however, virtual learning platforms have been available since many years. Learning management system such as Canvas and canvas network, Moodle and Google Classroom are widely used platforms. Traditional academic institutions are also using these learning management system side by side. In addition to these platforms video conference system such as Google hangouts, Google Meet, Zoom and Microsoft Teams are contributing a lot at the time of corona crisis.

According to Science daily(2015), as global population grew from about 500 million in 1560 to more than 7 billion, energy usage outpaced population growth. This in effect increased the world carrying capacity and allowed population to grow exponentially. The world is growing at an amazing rate. Currently the earth’s population is growing by 60,000 people every eight hours which means two children born every second somewhere around the globe.

Experts believe that if we continue to grow at this pace, we need 50 percent more energy to sustain humanity by 2050. More people means we need more food, water and shelter putting a strain on our renewable resources (Fisher, 2020).

Avtar, Tripathi, Agrawal and Kumar (2019) state that resource extraction and land management activity involved in energy infrastructure development and human management of such development systems have long-term and sometimes unforeseen consequences. Energy production is still highly dependent on fossil fuel even though alternative energy sources are being explored. Further, land productivity, land cover, human migration and other factors can potentially be affected by energy production (Avtar et al, 2019). Thus, land use, energy choice, infrastructure development and the population for which such facilities are being developed must be cognizant of each other, and the interactions between them need to be studied and understood closely(Avtar et al, 2019,p.1).

Zabel(2009) shows that there are three general scenarios that the world’s energy future may take their effects on population will be radically different. They are,  Continued fossil fuel growth,  Fossil fuel decline and no sufficient substitute

 Fossil fuel decline and a new source of energy.

With the first scenario, fossil fuel consumption continues to grow and population grows as projected by the United Nations to reach 9.7 billion in 2050. If oil population is close to reaching its peak, a much larger share of world’s population growth will have to be driven by coal population. Zabel (2009) signals the threat that unless carbon sequestration technologies quickly become viable, this will have detrimental effect on climate change. Further, natural gas will play a much smaller part than coal. Zabel (2009) states that 3.2 billion people that are dependent on oil in the sum of energy population model are in seriously jeopardy in the next fifty years as the world’s remaining oil resources are consumed, and world population could suffer a precipitous decline. However higher quality energy source could lead to further productivity improvements, reducing the pressure on existing resources and further raising the ceiling on population size. But a lower quality energy source like solar or wind power is less efficient (Zabel, 2009). Also, to replace diminishing oil and gas that currently provides the world with 60 percent of its energy resources, with nuclear power (5.6 percent of the energy resource) would not only require huge amount of capital but would require vast amounts of high quality energy. Perhaps new high quality source of energy will be found and that would then add a new energy component to population growth (Zabel, 2009).

Schneier (2018) argues that security is a tradeoff, a balancing act between attacker and defender. Changes in technology affect both sides. Society uses new technology to decrease scope of defection and attackers use new technologies to increase it. Schneier (2018) further sheds light on the benefits of technology for defenders. For instance, finger print technology allows police to identify suspects after they leave the crime scene and does not provide any corresponding benefit to criminals. The author provides examples of immobilizing technology for cars, alarm systems for houses and computer authentication technology which are beneficial for defenders. Similarly, the radio allows street policemen to communicate remotely, that increases our level of safety more than the corresponding downside of criminals using remotely endangers us (Schneier, 2018).

Gisby (2016) states that there are likely to be an increasing number of serious breaches to corporate and personal security due to cybercrime in term of short-term effect. More resources to be allocated by organization to combat cyber security. Clear protocols, consistent standards and high levels of security are extremely important for the interests of the majority of the country (Gisby, 2016, p.3).

Tsai, Chou, Lee, Lin and Hwang (2013) confirm that the most important overall control in IT related risks is data input/ output control. Disaster Recovery Plans

(DRPs) also are considered important along with a variety of other relevant controls (as cited in Gisby, 2016).

Zhao and Whinston(2013) suggests that firms are often impelled to make inept investments in IT- related security management systems considering system in inter dependency risk. Mallik(2004) state that in an increasingly inter-dependents world with national boundaries becoming irrelevant for most international businesses, balancing technology priorities with security perceptions will be crucial for the success of the arms control process in enhancing international security. He further states that ever poorest sections of society are well aware of the security and prosperity that can be achieved with modern technology. New technology options from fields such as micro-electromechanical systems, nanotechnology, biotechnology, bionics and artificial intelligence as well as advance energy generation concepts could lead to revolutionary changes in the future (p.138). So, effective management of security and technology is essential.

5. Demography and ambition

Gisby (2016) states that it might be expected in an ever globalized world, that ambition levels of both individuals and countries will increase exponentially in line with increasing levels of general influence.

Fensom (2019) highlights in an article entitled ‘Dangerous Demographics: China’s Population Problem will Eclipse its Ambitions’ that if demographics are destiny, then China is facing its biggest challenges in decades with no easy longterm solution in sight. Fensom (2019) further signals that China’s demographic contraction will reduce its GDP growth rate as well as its ability to fund its foreign ambitions such as Belt and Road Initiatives. Meanwhile the combined workforce of India, Indonesia and the United States are expected to keep expanding through at least 2060. A high birth rate and strong immigration levels should see the US population increase from 324 million in

2017 to 390 million in 2050, while India’s population will be over-taking China’s by 2027.

TOTAL (2020) states that there are 7 billion people on earth. In 2040, there will be 9 billion, 1.3 billion people today still do not have access to electricity due to a lack of financial resources or their geographic isolation. When poverty prevails full time ambitions become difficult. Energy poverty is especially prevalent in the developing world.

With the above discussion, one can argue that human civilization is in a very difficult situation now due to Covid-19. In the meantime, the world population has increased demand for food, energy and water also has increased. Environmental impacts of food and agriculture seems apparent. Personal and shared communication can be used to strengthen social networks. The delivery of education needs to focus on the virtual networks such as canvas and moodle. Higher quality energy source can lead to further productivity improvements reducing the pressure on existing resources. Cybercrime and other IT related risks needs to be mitigated through collective efforts. New technology such as nanotechnology and artificial intelligence can change the development pace. However, it is a huge challenge to note over a billion people are out of electricity due to poverty. So, collective efforts are essential to eradicate poverty and fight against disease like Covid-19 pandemic for better future of our world.

References

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