Economic Monitor June 28, 2011
Prepared by: Dr. Martin Murenbeeld, Chief Economist William Tharp, Senior Economist
ECONOMIC MONITOR
Financial Markets Overview 1.►
2.►
3.►
2
We have pushed back the date for a BANK OF CANADA interest rate increase to June of 2012. At present, North American growth is too anemic and inflation is about to follow oil prices down, relieving concerns that higher inflation expectations could become a problem. Business credit growth is picking up but, to the extent that this is used for productivity enhancing investments, it is not something that the Bank will want to curb prematurely. Consumer credit growth is decelerating, but there is some uncertainty about mortgage credit and the housing market which may yet prompt an earlier tightening move if activity does not slacken. The FED funds target rate is likely to remain in the range of 0% to 0.25% for the rest of this year and until at least mid-2012. The Fed clearly has no date in mind for its first rate hike and will want to see how both unemployment and core inflation look early next year before contemplating a timetable. At present, with the payroll tax holiday and other fiscal stimulus measures set to end this year, economic growth is unlikely to be much above 2% in the first half of 2012. If so, unemployment will remain too high and core inflation too low for the Fed to tighten policy at that time. The Fed is not expected to begin a new round of quantitative easing this year, following completion of QE2 in June. The end of QE2 is not expected to affect BOND YIELDS much, or for long, as the date has been well advertised and yields are currently being pushed lower by economic weakness and the prospective easing of headline inflation. Over the next few months that portion of the economic slowdown attributable to a shortage of Japanese parts will ease, and lower gasoline prices will allow consumer spending to accelerate somewhat, both at home and abroad. As a result, the 10year bond yield is apt to gradually rise from below 3.0% towards the 3.25% to 3.50% range by early fall. But it won’t likely stay that high for long as markets begin to worry about a renewed slowdown in early 2012.
by William Tharp Yields will also swing up and down according to economic and financial developments in Greece and other European countries, but the precise timing is hard to predict. A Greek default appears likely eventually but may be postponed long enough for the European banking system to shore up its defenses, thereby limiting collateral damage. 4.►
The CANADIAN DOLLAR is expected to move within a range of 97 to 103 for most of the remainder of this year in reaction to slowing global growth and a ratcheting down of commodity prices. Within that time there will likely be several aborted rallies for both commodity prices and the dollar as investors re-enter the market too early. We note, however, that Mid-east unrest remains a significant wild card for oil prices. Towards the end of the year, or in early 2012, we expect the loonie to begin a renewed rise assuming that the slowdown in Asia is ending and commodity prices begin to rise.
5.►
The US DOLLAR is apt to gain modestly against the commodity currencies in the immediate future but eventually lose ground once global growth reaccelerates. It is apt to bounce around against the European currencies, albeit with a rising trend as European growth slows, and lose ground to the Asian currencies. The Indian rupee won’t likely embark on a sustained rise, however, until Indian stocks are poised for sustained gains (which might be towards the end of the summer). Despite a weak economy, the yen is likely to be somewhat stronger as insurance money flows in to settle earthquake claims and as global equity markets recover (and the US dollar returns to being the key carry trade currency).
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12-I
12-II
69.49 1.005 99.5 80.00 156.9 1.395 102.5 6.420 45.00
69.58 1.005 99.5 79.50 155.9 1.380 102.5 6.380 44.80
69.28 0.995 100.5 79.50 156.2 1.370 103.5 6.300 44.20
0.87 -0.03
0.02 2.93 3.25 0.13 2.91
0.89 2.90 3.00 1.00 2.01
0.84 -0.05
0.06 2.90 3.25 0.13 2.84
0.90 2.85 3.00 1.00 1.95
0.85 -0.10
0.07 2.85 3.25 0.13 2.78
0.92 2.75 3.00 1.00 1.83
0.85 -0.10
0.10 2.95 3.25 0.13 2.85
0.95 2.85 3.00 1.00 1.90
0.84 -0.05
0.11 3.10 3.25 0.13 2.99
0.95 3.05 3.00 1.00 2.10
0.83 -0.05
0.12 3.05 3.25 0.13 2.93
0.95 3.00 3.00 1.00 2.05
68.58 0.980 102.0 79.00 156.4 1.360 105.1 6.220 43.60
1.00 -0.05
0.15 3.00 3.33 0.17 2.85
1.15 2.95 3.17 1.17 1.80
68.09 0.955 104.7 79.50 154.1 1.340 107.9 6.140 43.00
1.08 -0.05
0.32 3.15 3.58 0.33 2.83
1.40 3.10 3.42 1.42 1.70
69.06 0.950 105.3 81.00 150.7 1.310 108.4 6.080 42.25
12-III
This is our “baseline” scenario for the next four quarters. It is updated monthly. For alternative scenarios the reader may consult the Financial Monitor.
0.83 -0.13
Interest Rate Differential (Canada-US) Treasury Bill 0.58 0.83 Bonds-10yr 0.21 0.17
0.96 3.31 3.00 1.00 2.35
0.13 3.44 3.25 0.13 3.31
0.16 2.72 3.25 0.13 2.56
United States Treasury Bill (90-day) Treasury Bond (10-yr) Prime Fed Funds Target Spread: 10-yr - T Bills
0.97 3.08 3.00 1.00 2.11
68.83 0.990 101.01 80.10 156.8 1.400 104.04 6.460 45.00
Scenario B: Recovery Weak But No Further Stimulus
0.14 2.91 3.25 0.13 2.77
0.74 2.93 2.83 0.83 2.19
INTEREST RATES Canada Treasury Bill (91-day) Government Bond (10-yr) Prime Target Overnight Rate Spread: 10-yr - T Bills
* Index based on CDN$, Euro, Pound, Yen
68.37 0.986 101.40 80.90 159.9 1.429 104.43 6.474 45.00
71.18 69.75 1.013 0.986 98.71 101.39 82.60 82.30 158.1 159.4 1.359 1.367 98.76 100.46 6.661 6.585 44.86 45.27
74.55 1.039 96.25 85.90 155.1 1.291 90.34 6.770 46.49
Aug
US Dollar Index* Can. Dollar CDN/US Can. Dollar US/CDN Japanese Yen British Pound Euro Australian Dollar Chinese Yuan Rmb Indian Rupee
Jul
Scenario B: Global Recovery Pace Decelerates Temporarily; US Dollar Mixed
27-Jun
Projected Sep 11-IV
CURRENCIES
10-III
Actual 10-IV 11-I
June 28, 2011 Forecast - Base Scenario
ECONOMIC MONITOR
by Stephen Gaskin
Stock Market Outlook for the Rest of 2011 Overview North American stock markets began the year poised to perform well. The US economy appeared to be sustaining its recovery and emerging markets continued their strong growth. Strong emerging country economic growth was particularly beneficial for Canadian equities as it supported rising commodity prices which encouraged investment in Canadian commodity producers. As the table below indicates, the 52 week returns on North American equities have been solid.
S&P/TSX AND COMMODITY PRICES
16000
900
S&P/TSX
14000
800
BOC Commodity Price Index 12000
700
10000
600
8000
500
6000
400 300
4000
Last month: May 2011
2000 88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
200
10
1. US Economic Policy
Percent changes as of June 24, 2011 Since Apr 29 YTD 52-week TSX -9.5 -3.9 10.4 DJI -6.7 3.2 17.8 S&P 500 -6.7 1.2 18.2 NASDAQ -7.4 0.3 19.7 As the year progressed, however, a number of risks materialized and negatively impacted investor sentiment. US equity markets peaked on April 29 (the TSX peaked on April 5). Some of the risks were anticipated and prompted us to issue a caution about equity markets in the weekly Financial Monitor on April 8, 2011. (Since our new format was adopted on April 15, 2011, we have maintained a “caution/neutral” stance on equities). And the updated quarterly equity market projections in the May 26 Market Monitor also pointed to some equity market weakness through 2011 Q4. How are North American equity markets likely to perform for the rest of the year? We identify four key risk areas: monetary and fiscal policy, the US economic ‘soft patch’, overseas developments, and oil/geopolitical concerns. For the remainder of the year, we feel the risks to stock markets are somewhat weighted to the downside; there is a significant probability that stock markets could dip by a further 5% to 15% from their current levels in the second half of 2011.
4
At the beginning of 2011, after the passage of the Tax-Relief Act in December 2010, and the commencement of QE2, it appeared as though US fiscal and monetary policy was sufficient to sustain economic growth at levels capable of slowly reducing unemployment and bringing the inflation rate back to the Fed’s informal 2% target. In short, a deflationary episode seemed a declining probability event and unemployment was moving in the right direction. But as it turned out, US economic growth was lower than anticipated. Cue the end of the Fed’s quantitative easing program in June. Although the Fed has pledged to maintain low interest rates for “an extended period of time”, and will likely also maintain the size of its balance sheet, the end of QE2 signals the end of additional monetary stimulus just as the US economy is showing signs of slowing down – and this worries markets. One might conclude, therefore, that conditions would be ripe for more monetary stimulus; and although we anticipate this will happen beyond 2011, we feel that the Fed’s battered credibility, as well as the recent rise in core inflation, will prevent it from acting further to stimulate the economy this year. On the fiscal side of the ledger, the provisions of the Tax Relief Act will largely expire at the end of 2011. At this point, strained government finances (at all levels), and the need to address large Federal budget deficits are likely to result in fiscal withdrawal which will act as a further drag on US economic growth.
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Further into the future, the government will also have to address unfunded entitlement programs in order to satisfy the market that it has a long-term plan to deal with large and persistent budget deficits. All said, the financial crisis dealt a blow to the ability of US fiscal and monetary policy to respond to additional economic shocks. The prospective ‘sterilization’ of US policy tools, at least in the near-term, is worrying to stock markets because a number of potential risks continue to threaten the US economy. 2. US Economic ‘Soft Patch’ Although US fiscal and monetary policy stimulus was successful in boosting asset prices (with the notable exception of US housing), little progress has been made in resolving global imbalances that lie at the root of the financial crisis and continue to hinder the labour market recovery in the US. ENERGY AND FOOD PRICES 160
250
United Nations Food Price Index 2002-2004 =100 200
120
150
80
100
40
West Texas Intermediate $US/bl
50 02
03
04
05
Last month: May 2011 06
07
08
09
10
0
11
In addition to high unemployment, the prices of many commodities, food and energy in particular, have risen substantially over the course of the year and eaten into households’ disposable incomes – in North America, but even more acutely in emerging markets where food and energy comprise a larger share of household budgets. The net effect of these price increases is less money left over to support private consumer demand. The prospect of slowing global consumer demand is a negative for stock markets, although there is a good probability that lower energy prices in the second half of the year will free up households’ disposable income. In the US,
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however, the combined impact of stagnating consumer spending and reduced fiscal expenditures makes it hard to identify the sources of significant economic growth in the near-term. 3. Overseas Developments The European debt crisis has weighed on markets since it began in late 2009 – although the seeds of the crisis were sown much earlier and lie in the accumulation of imbalances within the European Union. These imbalances are perpetuated by the rigidity of the European currency regime which does not allow un-competitive countries to improve their competitiveness temporarily by devaluing their currency. The compression of interest rate spreads between peripheral, less-competitive, European countries (Greece, Portugal, Ireland, and Spain) and Germany also facilitated a large run-up in debt that crystallized in the current fragile and unpredictable state of affairs. At some point, we expect that Greece will default on its loans, or that it will leave the Euro and return to the Drachma – at a much lower exchange rate – which, like a default, would result in losses for holders of Greek debt. Thus far, the European Central Bank and the IMF have successfully papered over the problem as Greece has continued to ram through tough austerity measures to reduce its budget deficit. However, Greece may be approaching the limits of its willingness to endure further austerity; as the recent confidence vote illustrates, Parliament, and main street Greeks, may not be willing to bend much further. At that point, the ECB and IMF would be forced to decide if they will continue to support Greece, or allow it to default. The conclusion to be taken from this discussion is that the situation in Greece is very precarious. In the event of a Greek default, European banks would bear losses, as would (to a lesser extent) banks outside of Europe (including Canada and the US) who have lent directly to Greece, or indirectly to banks that hold Greek debt. Runs on the banking system are possible. The domino effect of capital losses across the global banking system is a very unsettling prospect for stock markets, and will be for quite some time until a resolution is reached.
5
ECONOMIC MONITOR
The Chinese economy has been the driving force underpinning global economic growth. However, in the past few months, the market has increasingly realized that China may be a victim of its own success. Strong export led growth in China, fueled by ultra-loose monetary and fiscal policy and the rapid inclusion of many Chinese citizens into a growing middle class, has increased global demand for a wide array of commodities and has led to price inflation.
be under control and that a bubbling Chinese housing market may be overdue for a correction that would result in a ‘hard landing’ for the Chinese economy. Chinese copper consumption, which is an indicator of Chinese economic growth, has recently started to trend downward. The markets will no doubt keep a close eye on the fortunes of China, and India for that matter, for signs of a slowdown.
160
250
140
200
6
120
150
4
100
2
80
0
60
-2
40
10 8
CHINA COPPER CONSUMPTION
300
CHINA INFLATION AND OIL Chinese CPI, yoy % change WTI ($US/bl)
000 tonnes
100 50 0
-4 2005
Last month: May 2011 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
20
CHINA INTEREST AND RESERVE RATES
23
7
21
6
19
5
17
4
15
3
13
2 1 0 2007
11
Central Bank Lending Rate Small Bank Reserve Ratio Large Bank Reserve Ratio
9
Last month: June 2011
2008
Last month: April 2011 2009
2010
2011
The Japanese earthquake has also been a negative factor for global growth, and in particular for North American growth because of Japan’s integral role in automotive supply chains. However, as the Japanese economy continues to recover from the devastating earthquake, we expect it will contribute positively to global growth going forward. This should provide a small boost to the stock market’s growth expectations. 4. High Oil Prices and Geopolitical Tensions At the beginning of 2011, oil prices were up from their recession lows on the back of increasing end user demand, investor interest, and because of increased interest as a hedge against inflation. However, the coming of the ‘Arab Spring’, capped by the revolt in Libya, which produces about 2% of the world’s oil (the high quality, light sweet crude variety), elevated the risk of social unrest spreading to larger oil producers in the Middle East and drove up the price of oil.
7 2008
2009
2010
2011
Policy tightening in China threatens to downshift the engine of global growth and reduce corporate earnings. In the event of a ‘soft landing’, inflation would ease without too great an impact on growth. However, markets fear that inflation may not
6
Year-over-year percent change 2007
2011
Chinese demand has manifested most clearly in higher food and energy prices. And Chinese households spend a greater proportion of their income on these items than their developed world counterparts. Consequently, Chinese citizens are more vulnerable to price shocks – a point not lost on the Chinese government that is ever-fearful of social unrest. As a result, Chinese policy makers have responded in earnest to try to get ahead of the curve on inflation by raising the central bank lending rate and the reserve ratios of both large and small banks. 8
-50 -100
The effects of high oil prices on stock markets have been discussed above, but suffice to say that as long as instability in North Africa and the Middle East (MENA) persists, the price of oil will be higher than it would otherwise be, and households worldwide will be paying more for food and energy, leaving them DundeeWealth
less to spend on discretionary goods and services. Elevated oil prices will also make the battle against inflation in emerging markets harder to win, and potentially handcuff the ability of monetary policy in the developed world to further stimulate the economy without sacrificing inflation targets. Iran’s nuclear ambitions add a further wild-card. The situation in the MENA is negatively weighing on stock markets insomuch as it negatively impacts the prospect for global growth. Until a durable solution quells the unrest, oil prices will contain an elevated risk premium.
Summary The factors impacting stock markets at present and in the next six months are biased toward the downside. Consequently, we feel there is a meaningful probability that stocks will suffer additional losses in the second half of 2011, likely in the range of 5% to 15% from their current levels.
Exchange Rate Rigidity - An Opinion on Stupidity Milton Friedman must be rolling over in his grave! He believed in floating currencies because he knew that over time countries would show natural divergences in output, productivity, wage rates, and social/economic policies. Such divergences would, in a fixed exchange rate system, lead to significant external imbalances; some countries would end up with large surpluses and some with large deficits. It was always so! But prior to WW-I such imbalances were corrected through domestic deflation and depression. In modern economic systems, however, where there are unions, extensive social programs with transfer payments and other entitlements, together with inflexible wages and salaries, Friedman recognized this wouldn’t work. The unemployed would vote (or otherwise force) governments advocating deflationary/depressioninducing policies out of office. Let me be clear: today’s economic crises result in large part directly from governments’ attempts to fix and/or tamper with exchange rates. Take the crisis in Europe: even the economically challenged must by now have concluded the best prescription for Greece is massive currency devaluation. But such is impossible under the present arrangement. Greece is uncompetitive; domestic wages and productivity are seriously out of line with German wages and productivity, and so are Greek social policies. That every Greek today drives a Mercedes and retires at 58 is not a testament to Greek ingenuity DundeeWealth
by Martin Murenbeeld
but to the idiocy of Greece being in the Eurosystem and the stupidity of Greece’s lenders and bankers. Greece cannot repay the debt it has run up out of future GDP; it will accordingly default. Had Greece not been in the Eurosystem, there would have been no convergence of Greek-German interest rates. In the absence of convergence the markets would have been significantly less receptive to government borrowing. And the Greek drachma would have declined periodically against the deutsche mark/euro to make up for Greece’s relatively high wages, low productivity, and costly social policies. So would the currencies of the other PIIGS had they not adopted the euro! (Did the reader per chance hear David Cameron thank God the UK had not adopted the euro?) The proof is in the chart overleaf: the currencies of the PIIGS declined consistently against the deutsche mark prior to 1999 when the Eurosystem commenced. Only those dreaming in 1999 of far-off Euro-political nirvana thought this would change. It didn’t and it almost certainly won’t in the foreseeable future! To keep Greece in the Eurosystem Germany and the other surplus countries will have to transfer much of this surplus to Greece’s creditors. We’ll see how they like this! As evidenced by its massive external imbalance, the US dollar is also much too rigid versus other currencies (except the Canadian dollar: it floats). In the first instance, the US has a whopping deficit in its
7
ECONOMIC MONITOR
PIIGS EXCHANGE RATES January 1957 to December 1998 Units per Deutsche Mark: January 1957 = 100
100
Index Value
10
Ireland
21.1
Italy
15.0
Spain
10.9
Portugal
Log Scale
Greece
Euro introduced January 1999
6.7 4.3
57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01
energy trade; this deficit bleeds dollars directly and indirectly into the coffers of OPEC, Russia and other oil-exporting countries. Such countries have been loathe to let their currencies rise significantly, and the US government has been loathe to raise the domestic price of oil by other means. As such, oil-exporters are awash in dollar reserves. They put these dollars to work in the world’s capital markets where this liquidity is lent to, among others, Greece and the rest of the PIIGS!
The PIIGS currencies declined dramatically against the German deutsche mark over the years, before the advent of the euro. The Greek drachma, for example, declined by 96% from 1957 to 1999. With such a history, it is somewhat surprising that a crisis did not occur sooner.
One can argue that the US and Greece should change their ways. But this is spitting into the wind; the US will not be, and does not want to be, like China, and Greece will not be like Germany, euro or no euro. And because of that, when currencies aren’t flexible, there will be crises!
So that is where we stand today, with crises all around. Someone once said that one fool can ask more questions than 10 wise men can answer. Similarly, one stupid theory–fixed exchange rates–can The US also has huge trade and private investment turn the world economy into a mess which will take deficits with China. Because of the rigidity of the more than ten wise men, and a number of years, to renminbi/dollar exchange rate, China’s reserves correct. are now in excess of $3.0 trillion. Where is all this money invested? In the paper of the US and Greek Did I mention we like gold? governments, among other things! In short, China’s external surplus is feeding the Greek and American external deficits.
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MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – ECONOMIC GROWTH
CANADA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
12 10 8
Too much of the first quarter’s 3.9% GDP growth came from inventory accumulation. Consumer spending has turned soft.
6 4
f
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8
annualized growth rate
-10 80
82
84
86
88
Last quarter: 2011 Q1 90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
CANADA MONTHLY GDP
1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4
While March saw some improvement over February, the trend for growth is down.
0.2
f
0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2
Percent change month-to-month 2008
8
2009
Last month: March 2011 2010
2011
CANADA GDP FORECAST Forecast through 2012
6 4
We expect future growth to be relatively weak.
2
f
0 -2 -4 -6 -8
Annualized quarterly rate of change 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – ECONOMIC GROWTH
CANADA LEADING INDICATOR 2.0 1.5 1.0
The leading indicator has been quite strong.
f
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5
Last month: May 2011
Percent change month-over-month
-2.0 2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
CANADA JOB CREATION
80 60 40 20
But job creation appears to be slowing...
f
0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100
000s, 3-month moving average
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
CANADA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
14 13 12 11
...even though the unemployment rate is falling.
f
10 9 8 7 6 5 4
Percent
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
10
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MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – ECONOMIC GROWTH
30
CANADA MANUFACTURING SHIPMENTS
20 10
Manufacturing shipments fell back in April.
f
0 -10 -20 -30
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: April 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
2.4
CANADA INVENTORY-TO-SHIPMENTS RATIO
2.2 2.0
The inventory ratio rose slightly.
f
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
Last month: April 2011
1.0
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
50
CANADA MANUFACTURING NEW ORDERS
40 30 20
After a surge in March, new orders were the weakest since December.
f
10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: April 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
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ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – ECONOMIC GROWTH
CANADA RETAIL SALES
16 12 8
Retail sales have flattened out since November, even though gasoline prices were rising.
f
4 0 -4 -8 -12
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: April 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
CANADA HOUSING STARTS
300
Housing starts have been subdued since February. Lower mortgage rates may buoy the housing market for several more months, but we expect a weakening trend to begin fairly soon.
250
f
200
150
100
000s, total, all areas
Last month: May 2011
50 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
CANADA NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES
180 160
New vehicle sales have been fairly constant from September to April. Anecdotal reports say May was down, but parts shortages (Japanese earthquake) were a factor.
140
f
120 100 80 60 40
000s, s.a.
Last month: April 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
12
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MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – INFLATION
CANADA CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION
5.0 4.0
Headline inflation remained at 3.3% in April. Bigger-thanexpected declines in gasoline prices could see the headline rate fall below 2.5% by July, and possibly down to 2.0% in the fall.
3.0
f
Target band
2.0 1.0 Total CPI
0.0
Core CPI
-1.0
Last month: April 2011
Percent change year-over-year
-2.0 2000
12
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
CANADA INDUSTRIAL PRODUCT PRICE INFLATION
10 8 6
The IPPI has been at 5.0% for the last two months and will be slower than the CPI to come down.
4
f
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: April 2011
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
14
CANADA AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS
12 10
Public Administration
8
Industry wage gains remain near 4.0% per year. Public sector increases are closer to 2.0%.
f
6 4
Industry
2 0 -2 -4 -6
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: March 2011
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
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ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – INFLATION
NEW HOUSE PRICES St. John's Halifax
April 2011
Fredericton Montreal
New house price increases are still high in some cities, but Calgary and Edmonton, after an earlier boom, are relatively weak.
Ottawa-Hull
f
Toronto Kitchener Winnipeg Regina Saskatoon Calgary Edmonton Vancouver
Percent change year-over-year
Victoria
-3
-2
-1
2
3
4
5
6
20
Percent change year-over-year
Index, 2007=100
100
f
1
CANADA NEW HOUSE PRICES
110
Nationally, new house prices were up 1.9% in April and saw modest acceleration. (Resale house prices are up more sharply, see chart on page 18).
0
16
90
12
80
8
70
4
60
0
50
-4
40
-8
Last month: April 2011 30
-12 81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
Source: Statistics Canada New House Price Index
12 10
Inflation expectations were slightly above 2% in May with some slippage from April.
CANADA INFLATION EXPECTATIONS Difference (inflation expectation) Long term bond Real Return Bonds
8
f
6 4 2 0
Last month: May 2011 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
14
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MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – INFLATION
9
CANADA HOURLY COMPENSATION
8 7
Average 1982 to Latest: 3.85%
6
Hourly compensation has been rebounding.
f
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
Percent change year-over-year
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
5
CANADA LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY Average 1982 to latest: 1.37%
4 3
The recent gain in productivity has lost some steam.
f
2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
Percent change year-over-year
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
8 6
CANADA UNIT LABOUR COSTS Average 1982 to latest: 2.47%
4
Unit labour cost increases have risen to above 2% per year.
f
2 0
-2 -4
Percent change year-over-year
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
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ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – DEBT AND CREDIT Canadian consumer credit growth has been slowing. Mortgage credit growth has accelerated in recent months but may be set to slow after April. Business credit growth appears to be breaking out of the doldrums, however.
25
CANADA CONSUMER CREDIT GROWTH
450
20
CANADA CONSUMER CREDIT
500
$ volume, billions
400
15
350
10
f
5
250 200 150
0
100
-5 -10
300
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: April 2011
50
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
25
CANADA RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE CREDIT GROWTH
Last month: April 2011
0 07
08
09
10
11
CANADA RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE CREDIT
1200
$ volume, billions 20
1000
15
800
O
10
f
600
5
400
0
200
-5
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: April 2011
Last month: April 2011 0
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
40
CANADA SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT GROWTH
35
07
08
09
10
11
CANADA SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT
450
$ volume, billions
400
30 350
25 20
300
15
S
10 5
f
0
100
-10 -20
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: May 2011
72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
16
200 150
-5 -15
250
50
Last month: May 2011
0 07
08
09
10
11
DundeeWealth
MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – DEBT AND CREDIT
US AND CANADA DEBT-TO-INCOME RATIOS
170
US household and unincorporated businesses
160
Canada’s debt-to-income ratio nudged higher in the first quarter (mainly an increase in mortgage debt brought on by low mortgage rates and the prospect of tighter mortgage lending rules).
150 140
f
US household
130 120 110
Canada household and unincorporated businesses
100 90 80
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
Percent of personal disposable income
70 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
CANADA INTEREST PAYMENTS 12 11 10
The interest portion of debt repayment is still relatively low (but low interest rates have sparked a surge in borrowing – just as in Greece, Ireland and Portugal).
9
Total interest
8
f
7 6
Mortgage interest
5 4 3
Consumer interest
2 1
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
Percentage of disposable income
0 90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
CANADA SAVINGS RATE
24 22 20 18
The savings rate is nudging higher but could shoot up if/when the housing market turns down.
16
f
14 12 10 8 6 4 2
Percentage of disposable income
0 81
DundeeWealth
83
85
87
89
91
93
Last quarter: 2011 Q1 95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
17
ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – WEALTH CREATION
CANADA CORPORATE PROFITS BEFORE TAXES
260 240
Profits continued to rise in the first quarter but still have some way to go to reach the pre-crisis peak.
f
14
200
13
180
12
160
11
140
10
120
9
100
8
80
7
60
6
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
20 80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Percent change year-over-year
S&P/TSX Composite (month end)
5 4
10
S&P/TSX COMPOSITE
16000
f
15
220
40
Stock prices, on the other hand, almost reached the pre-crisis peak before pulling back in April.
16
Percent of GDP
Total (bn$)
75
14000
60
12000
45
10000
30
8000
15
6000
0
4000
-15
2000
-30
Last month: May 2011
0
-45
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CANADA AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE (RESALES) 400 360
House prices continue to rise on average, although an excessive increase in Vancouver (especially high-end homes) has distorted the numbers.
f
$000
Percent change year-over-year
35 30
320
25
280
20
240
15
200
10
160
5
120
0
80
-5
40
-10
Last month: May 2011
0 81
83
85
87
89
91
-15
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association
18
DundeeWealth
MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – FINANCIAL MARKETS
CANADIAN DOLLAR
110 105 100 95
The Canadian dollar is apt to correct further downward, along with most commodity prices.
90
f
85 80 75 70 65 60
Daily, last date: June 24, 2011
US cents
55 98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
OIL PRICE
High oil prices have given the Canadian dollar strong support, but prices need to fall further if global growth is to reaccelerate.
f
150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
New York Crude
Weekly, Friday data Last date: June 24, 2011
US$/bbl 79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
CANADA INTEREST RATES
22 20 18
Short-term rates appear unlikely to be raised until next year. Bond yields are still trending lower (along with potential economic growth) in all of the developed countries.
16 14
f
T-bills
12 10
10-year bond
8 6 4 2 0
Percent
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
DundeeWealth
19
ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW ► CANADA – FINANCIAL MARKETS
CANADA-US INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIALS
7 6 5
5-year differential
4
Canadian interest rates remain higher than US rates at the short end of the yield curve.
f
90-day differential
3 2 1 0 -1 -2
Last month: May 2011
-3 82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
CANADA-US LONG TERM YIELD DIFFERENTIAL
1.4 1.2
10-Year
1.0 0.8
Ten year yields are about equal but US 30-year yields are quite a bit higher.
0.6
f
0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2
30-Year
-0.4 -0.6
Weekly Last date: June 24, 2011
-0.8 -1.0 97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
CANADA’S CURRENT ACCOUNT 16
Canada’s current account deficit is still large, though falling.
f
Billion $
48 36
8
24
4
12
0
0
-4
-12
-8
-24
-12
-36
-16 -20
Seasonally adjusted 93 94
20
Billion $, 4-quarter sum
12
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
-48 -60
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
DundeeWealth
MONTHLY REVIEW ► UNITED STATES – ECONOMIC GROWTH
US GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
10 8 6
Weak consumer spending (thanks to higher gasoline prices) saw economic growth slide to just 1.9% in the first quarter. Weak wage growth was also a factor.
4
f
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
US GDP FORECAST
8
Growth may improve somewhat in the second half of 2011 as gasoline prices ebb and Japanese auto parts reappear on the market following the disruptive earthquake in March. But following an initial bounce, we expect growth to disappoint.
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
Annualized growth rate
-10
Forecast through 2012
6 4
f
2 0 -2 -4 -6
Annualized quarterly rate of change -8 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
US LEADING INDICATOR
1.5 1.0
Although the leading indicator rebounded in May, we expect future numbers to be less impressive.
0.5
f
0.0 -0.5 -1.0
Last month: May 2011
Percent change month-to-month
-1.5 2007
DundeeWealth
2008
2009
2010
2011
21
ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW ► UNITED STATES – ECONOMIC GROWTH
US ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX
80
Below 50 indicates contraction
70
A big decline in the manufacturing index in May reflected slowing global growth.
60
f
50 40 30
Last month: May 2011
Index
20
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
US ISM SERVICES INDEX
80
Below 50 indicates contraction 70
The services sector index rose slightly in May but is not particularly strong for a period of economic recovery.
60
f
50 40 30
Last month: May 2011
Index
20 97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
US INDUSTRIAL CAPACITY UTILIZATION 90 88 86 84 82
The capacity utilization ratio appears to be flattening out at a low level.
f
80 78 76
Average 80.4
74 72 70 68 66 64
Percent
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
22
DundeeWealth
MONTHLY REVIEW ► UNITED STATES – ECONOMIC GROWTH
US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
160 140 120
Consumers were less happy in June.
100
f
80 60 40 20 0
Last month: June 2011
1985 = 100
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
After three good months, May’s job creation fell back to a disappointing 54,000, bringing the three month moving average down a bit. It will fall further in June.
f
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 -500 -600 -700 -800
US JOB CREATION
000s, monthly change 3-month moving average
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
US UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
11 10 9
After reaching a low of 8.8% in March, the unemployment rate rose to 9.1% in May.
8
f
7 6 5 4 3
Percent
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
DundeeWealth
23
ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW UNITED STATES – ECONOMIC GROWTH
20
Retail sales fell between April and May (even before price increases were removed). Nevertheless, the year-over-year increase is still very large, and spread over many categories. In that light, recent weakness does not look aberrant.
US RETAIL SALES Nominal
15 10
f
5 0 -5 -10 -15
Last month: May 2011
Percent change year-over-year
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
US HOUSING STARTS
2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9
Housing starts remain depressed.
f
1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3
Millions of dwelling units
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
US NEW AND EXISTING HOME SALES
1600
000s
000s 1400 1200
New home sales remain weak and existing home sales include repossessed house sales, which are depressing prices.
7700 7000
New home sales
6300
Existing home sales
f
1000
5600
800
4900
600
4200
400
3500
200 0
2800
Last month: May 2011
2100
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
24
DundeeWealth
MONTHLY REVIEW UNITED STATES – INFLATION
US CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION
16
Seasonally Adjusted
14 12
Headline inflation rose to 3.3% in May and will likely go slightly higher in June before trending down. Core inflation rose to 1.5%.
10
f
Total
8
Core
6 4 2 0 -2
Last month: May 2011
Percent change year-over-year
-4
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
US PRODUCER PRICE INFLATION
20 15
Total 10
Producer prices hit a new cyclical high of 7.2% in May but may start falling as soon as this month.
f
Core
5 0 -5
Last month: May 2011
Percent change year-over-year -10
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
US EMPLOYMENT COST
6.5
Includes benefits
6.0 5.5 5.0
Even with benefits included, employment cost increases remain unusually small.
Average 3.68
4.5
f
4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 83
DundeeWealth
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
Percent change year-over-year
1.0
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
11
25
ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW UNITED STATES – INFLATION
9
US HOURLY COMPENSATION INDEX
8 7
1989 to date average: 3.85
6
Hourly compensation is edging up.
f
5 4 3 2 1 0
Percent change year-over-year
Last quarter: 2011-Q1
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
US PRODUCTIVITY 7 6 5
And productivity has fallen back.
f
1989 to date Average: 2.35
4 3 2 1 0 -1
Percent change year-over-year
Last quarter: 2011-Q1
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
US UNIT LABOUR COSTS 6
1989 to date Average: 1.48
5 4 3
The resultant increase in unit labour costs suggests a slowdown in corporate profit growth ahead.
f
2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4
Percent change year-over-year
Last quarter: 2011-Q1
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
26
DundeeWealth
MONTHLY REVIEW UNITED STATES – INFLATION
CASE-SHILLER HOME PRICE INDEX
230
Resale house prices continue to fall, but there was a glimmer of hope in April when prices were virtually unchanged from March.
f
Percent change year-over-year
Case-Shiller Index, s.a.
210
20 15
190
10
170
5
150
0
130
-5
110
-10
90
-15
70
Last month: April 2011
Jan 2000 = 100
50 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
-20 -25
11
US INFLATION EXPECTATIONS
7
Difference Long-term Bond 30-yr Inflation-Protected Bonds
6 5
Inflation expectations, while elevated (gasoline prices), slipped a notch in May.
f
4
The “difference” is a measure of inflation expectations!
3 2 1
98
20
Last month: May 2011
Percent
0
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
US MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH
16
M1
12
US money supply growth has reaccelerated, the result of quantitative easing.
M2
f
8 4 0 -4 -8
Percent change year-over-year
Last quarter: 2011 Q1
68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
DundeeWealth
27
ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW UNITED STATES – MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH
US MONETARY BASE
3000
Percent change year-over-year
Monetary base bn$
QE2 has pushed up the growth rate of the monetary base.
f
125
2500
100
2000
75
1500
50
1000
25
500
0
Last month: May 2011 0 2007
-25 2008
2009
2010
US M1 MONEY SUPPLY
2875
M1 + sweeps money supply bn$
And M1 growth has also accelerated.
f
2011
14
Percent change year-over-year
2750
12
2625
10
2500
8
2375
6
2250
4 2
2125
Last month: April 2011 2000 2007
9100
0 2008
2009
2010
US M2 MONEY SUPPLY
Percent change year-over-year
8500
f
11
M2 Money supply bn$
8800
M2 growth is up too, but the higher rate still lags behind that of the pre-crisis years – an indication that the increased supply of money is not circulating rapidly and having very little impact on inflation.
2011
9 8
8200
6
7900
5
7600
3 2
7300
Last month: May 2011 7000 2007
28
0 2008
2009
2010
2011
DundeeWealth
MONTHLY REVIEW UNITED STATES – DEBT AND CREDIT
US CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
2600
Total credit outstanding 2575 billion dollars
Consumer installment credit continued to grow in April.
f
6 4
2500
2
2475
0
2450
-2
2425
-4
2400
-6
1000 900
Last month: April 2011
-8 -10
2008
2009
2010
2011
US COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS Total credit outstanding billion dollars
Percent change year-over-year
10 5
600
0
500
-5
400
-10
300
-15 -20
Last month: May 2011
0 2007
25
20
20
10
15
0
W
-10
f
-20
-25 -30
2008
2009
2010
2011
US CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT
10 5 0
-30 -40
15
700
100
US COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS
20
800
200
30
8
2525
2350 2007
f
10
2550
2375
And C&I loan growth also shows continued improvement. Good for the banking sector!
Percent change year-over-year
-5
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
DundeeWealth
-10
Percent change year-over-year
Last month: April 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
29
ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW UNITED STATES – FINANCIAL MARKETS
US INTEREST RATES
18
The Fed confirmed on June 22 that QE2 would end this month, as scheduled. But it also repeated that interest rates would remain unusually low for an extended period.
15
Bond Yields – 10-year
12
f
9 6
T-Bills
3 0
Last month: May 2011
Percent
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
AAA CORPORATE BOND YIELDS
7.5
Moody’s AAA Yield
Treasury yields have recently moved down more than better grade corporate yields.
f
3.5
Moody’s AAA – US 10-year rate spread
7.0
3.0
6.5
2.5
6.0
2.0
5.5
1.5
5.0
1.0
4.5 4.0
2-Jul-07
14-Jan-08
0.5
Daily Last day: June 22, 2011
Percent 28-Jul-08
9-Feb-09
24-Aug-09
8-Mar-10
0.0 20-Sep-10
4-Apr-11
source: Federal Reserve
HIGH-YIELD BOND YIELDS 24 22
And low grade corporate yields have been rising as slowing economic growth increases financial risk.
f
Merrill Lynch High Yield Corporate Bonds less US 10-year rate spread
Merrill Lynch High Yield Corporate Bond Yield
20
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
Daily Last day: June 22, 2011
4 2
Percent
3-Jul-07
30
22
15-Jan-08
2 0
29-Jul-08
10-Feb-09 25-Aug-09
9-Mar-10
20-Sep-10
5-Apr-11
DundeeWealth
MONTHLY REVIEW FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
CHINESE RENMINBI (YUAN)
3
Axis inverted 4
The renminbi continues to edge higher. But Congress is getting impatient again with the slow pace of appreciation.
5
f
6 7
8
Last month: May 2011
Units/US$
9
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
JAPANESE YEN
75 80 85 90
The yen is pushing to break through 80. Insurance inflows and repayment of yen loans are the main factors.
95
f
100 105 110 115 120 125 130 135
Daily, last date: June 24, 2011
Units per US Dollar
140 02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
POUND STERLING AND EURO 225
The euro continues to wobble, dragged down by sovereign debt worries and potential related banking sector problems. While we expect the euro to trend lower in the second half of 2011, disappointing US growth is keeping the US dollar weak for now.
Pound - US cents/unit
215
f
Euro - US$/unit
1.6
205
1.5
195
1.4
185
1.3
175
1.2
165
1.1 Pound
155
1.0
Euro
145
0.9
135
Daily, last date: June 24, 2011
125 02
DundeeWealth
1.7
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
0.8 0.7
11
31
ECONOMIC MONITOR
MONTHLY REVIEW INTERNATIONAL SHORT-TERM SPREADS
US-UK SHORT-TERM RATE SPREAD
10 8 6 4
US short-term rates are below UK rates.
f
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
Percent
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
10
US-GERMANY SHORT-TERM RATE SPREAD
8 6 4
US short-term rates are also below German/European rates.
f
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
Percent
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
US-JAPAN SHORT-TERM RATE SPREAD
10 8 6 4
US and Japanese short-term rates are about equal.
f
2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10
Percent
Last month: May 2011
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
32
DundeeWealth
MONTHLY REVIEW INTERNATIONAL LONG-TERM RATES
US-UK 10-YEAR BOND YIELD SPREAD 2.0 1.5 1.0
US 10-year yields are below UK yields.
f
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5
Wednesday date Last date: June 22, 2011
7-Jan-98
16-Jun-99 22-No v-00
1-M ay-02
8-Oct-03
16-M ar-05 23-A ug-06
30-Jan-08
8-Jul-09
15-Dec-10
US-GERMANY 10-YEAR BOND YIELD SPREAD 2.0 1.5 1.0
German yields have fallen slightly below US yields.
f
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0
Wednesday data Last date: June 22, 2011
7-Jan-98
16-Jun-99
22-No v-00
1-M ay-02
8-Oct-03
16-M ar-05
23-A ug-06 30-Jan-08
8-Jul-09
15-Dec-10
US-JAPAN 10-YEAR BOND YIELD SPREAD 6 5
Japanese yields remain the lowest (by far) of all developed country yields, growing debt worries notwithstanding. Deflation is a key reason.
4
f
3 2 1 0
Wednesday date Last date: June 22, 2011
7-Jan-98
DundeeWealth
16-Jun-99 22-No v-00
1-M ay-02
8-Oct-03
16-M ar-05 23-A ug-06
30-Jan-08
8-Jul-09
15-Dec-10
33
ECONOMIC MONITOR
COMMODITY PRICES 1. Bank of Canada commodity price indices
TOTAL COMMODITY
1000
(Weekly data to June 24, 2011)
TOTAL LESS ENERGY
425
2750
400
900
2500
375
800
2250
350
2000
700 600 500
ENERGY
3000
325
1750
300
1500 1250
275
1000
400
250
750
225
300 04
05
06
07
08
09
10
500 04
11
AGRICULTURE
400
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
04
METALS & MINERALS
750
650
350
600 325
550 500
275
450 400
250
350 225
300
200
08
09
10
11
250 04
05
06
07
08
09
2. Other indices
10
11
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
(Weekly data to June 24, 2011)
S&P GSCI COMMODITY
900
475
850
REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB
ECONOMIST COMMODITY PRICE 250
450
800
225
425
750
400
700 650
375
600
350
550
325
500
300
450
200 175 150
275
400
125
250
350 300
Energy weight: 33%
225
Energy weight: 75%
250
Energy weight: 0% 100
200
200
75
175 04
34
07
World growth will likely keep commodity prices firm, but we can’t rule out more corrections as monetary policy continues to tighten in Asia and the Fed ends QE2.
f
300
06
The rise in commodity prices has stalled, indicative of a world economic “soft patch”.
700
375
05
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
DundeeWealth
COMMODITY PRICES 3. Metals (Weekly data to June 24, 2011)
NICKEL
56000 52000 48000 44000 40000 36000 32000 28000 24000 20000 16000 12000 8000 4000
04
05
06
07
08
09
COPPER
500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75
US$/tonne
10
11
4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 04
05
06
2800
08
09
10
1600 1500 1300
3000
1200
2750
2400
2500
2200
2250 2000
1400 1200 04
05
06
07
08
09
10
PLATINUM
2400
750 500
400
2000
4000
1800
3500
1600
3000
1400
2500
1200
2000
1000
1500
800
1000
11
09
10
11
GOLD US$/oz
500 300 04
4500
10
700
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
04
05
06
07
08
SILVER
5000
US$/oz
09
800 600
2200
08
900
1250 1000
11
07
1000
1750 1500
1600
06
1100
f
1800
05
1400
3250
2600
2000
04
11
US$/tonne
3750 3500
3000
07
LEAD
4000
US$/tonne
3200
US$/tonne
4500
ALUMINUM
3400
ZINC
5000
US cents/lb
Copper prices have stalled in recent weeks, which is also a warning on the global economy.
US cents/oz
Gold continues to soar however on the back of the debt crisis and other factors.
500
600 04
05
06
DundeeWealth
07
08
09
10
11
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
35
ECONOMIC MONITOR
COMMODITY PRICES 4. Energy (Weekly data to June 24, 2011) SPOT OIL
150 140
NATURAL GAS
16
US$/bbl
Earlier this year oil prices rose sharply, partly on the back of MENA geopolitical conflicts. More recently, the death of bin Laden and the IEA decision to sell 60 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves contributed to lower oil prices. Slowing global growth has also been a significant factor.
US$/million BTU
14
130 120
12
110 10
100 90
8
80 70
6
60 4
50 40
NY Crude
30 20
2
Henry Hub
0 04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
EQUITY MARKETS 5. North America (Weekly data to June 24, 2011) TSX COMPOSITE INDEX
16000
S&P 500 INDEX
1600
15000
1500
15000
14000
1400
14000
13000
1300
13000
12000
1200
12000
11000
1100
11000
10000
S&P 500
1000
13 wk ma
TSX composite
10000
DJI
52 wk ma
9000
900
13 wk ma 52 wk ma
9000
800
8000
8000
700
7000
7000
600
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
13 wk ma 52 wk ma
6000 05
06
07
08
09
10
11
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
NASDAQ INDEX
3000
QE2 was very supportive for equities (and commodity prices). The end of QE2 is therefore not a positive development, if only from a psychological viewpoint. (Interest rates remain low, however).
2800 2600 2400
There are a number of factors hanging over the markets just now, as discussed starting on page 4 of this report.
2200 2000 NASDAQ
1800
13 wk ma 52 wk ma
1600 1400 1200 05
36
06
07
08
09
10
11
DundeeWealth
EQUITY MARKETS 6. Around the world
(Monthly data, last date May 2011)
JAPAN
22000 20000
GERMANY
9000 8000
18000
18000
7000
16000
12000
5000
10000
4000
8000
12000 9000
3000
6000
6000
2000
4000
0
15000
6000
14000
2000
3000
1000
Nikkei
DAX
Bombay SENSEX
0
0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
CHINA
6500
RUSSIA
2600
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
2400
39000
5500
2200
36000
5000
2000
33000
4500
1800
4000
1600
3500
1400
3000
1200
2500
1000
2000
800
1500
600
1000
400
6000
500
200
3000
0
0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
2600
30000 27000
f
Shanghai Composite
MSCI EAFE INDEX Month-end
2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
DundeeWealth
24000 21000 18000 15000 12000
RTS-1
9000
BRAZIL
Mexican IPC 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
80000 75000 70000 65000 60000 55000 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
MEXICO
42000
6000
0
INDIA
21000
1800 1700
MSCI WORLD INDEX Month-end
1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800
Bovespa 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
700 600 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
37
2025_A_EN_0408 MOE 9166
Views contained in this report regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector are the views of the writer and do not necessarily represent the views of DundeeWealth Inc., its affiliates and subsidiaries. Views expressed should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell nor should they be relied upon as investment advice. Information contained in this report is current as of the date of publication and has been obtained from third party sources believed to be reliable. DundeeWealth Inc., its affiliates and subsidiaries does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use or the results of the information contained herein in terms of its correctness, accuracy, timeliness, reliability, or otherwise, and does nor not accept any responsibility for any loss or damage that results from its use. 速 Registered trademark of its owner, used under license.
www.dundeewealtheconomics.com
JUNE 28 ECONOMIC MONITOR – A CORRECTION AND EMBELLISHMENT In the Economic Monitor of June 28, under the title “Stock Market Outlook for the Rest of 2011” it was noted there was a “significant probability that equity markets could dip by a further 5% to 15% from their current levels in the second half of 2011”. We rightfully received a number of questions regarding this statement as it neither reflected the equity scenarios in the May 26 Market Monitor nor the model valuation for equity markets at the end of May. Ergo, I would like to clarify our position on equity markets for the rest of 2011. First however let me stress that the four points raised in the article reflect fully our view of the headwinds facing markets since their peaks in April. But the conclusion overstates the degree of downside risk “from current levels”. The downside risk of 5% to 15% was meant to be based off the peaks in April. Given that the TSX had already declined nearly 10% from its peak at the time of writing, the article should have said that there was a further risk of another 5% (which I readily admit might have understated the immediate risk had the Greek parliament not voted to accept the government’s austerity plan, as this would
then have created huge – though not necessarily insurmountable - problems for the EU and its banking sector). To recapitulate, the table below is taken from the May 26 Market Monitor and represents our collective view of likely equity market developments going forward. Scenario A captures the downside scenario reasonably well, we think; the decline from the April peak to the Q4 average is about 13% for the TSX and about 12% for the S&P500. The probability-weighted average for each index is our “official” forecast. The reader can see that this forecast is somewhat neutral with respect to the second half of 2011. However, because on June 24 the TSX and the S&P500, at 11935 and 1268 respectively, were significantly below the probabilityweighted projections, the reader might also conclude markets could rise during the second half of 2011. We apologize for the confusion; I was derelict in my editing duties and the report went out without my final review. Martin Murenbeeld
S&P500 Forecast - quarterly average data 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1
1121 1135 1095 1204 1306
Actual
Reprinted from the May 26, 2011 Market Monitor
Scenario
2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3
1317 1226 1194 1163 1129 1099 1338 1323 1294 1342 1398 1447 1355 1395 1454 1526 1608 1695
A B C
0.15 0.60 0.25
Probability A B C Probability-Weighted Scenario
0.15 0.60 0.25
0.15 0.60 0.25
0.15 0.60 0.25
0.15 0.60 0.25
Forecast
0.15 0.60 0.25
1339 1327 1319 1361 1410 1457
S&P/TSX Composite Forecast - quarterly average data 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1
11587 11756 11999 13024 13935
Actual
Scenario
2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3
A B C
A Probability B C Probability-Weighted Scenario
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13663 12814 12364 12127 11625 11147 13865 13793 13425 13737 14118 14423 13905 14327 14817 15413 16224 17040 0.15 0.60 0.25
0.15 0.60 0.25
0.15 0.60 0.25
0.15 0.60 0.25
0.15 0.60 0.25
0.15 0.60 0.25
13845 13780 13614 13915 14270 14586
Forecast