Impact of mexicos popocatepetl eruptions beroe inc by Beroe Inc

Impact of Mexico’s Popocatépetl Eruptions

July 16, 2013

Current Situation 

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Mexico’s Popocatepetl volcano has seen increased activity recently, with periods of continuous tremors and release clouds of ash and plume up to 3km into the air, prompting cancellations of 47 flights through Mexico City, which is about 35 miles away from the volcano. Mexico's National Center for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED) has raised the volcano alert from Stage 2 Yellow to Stage 3 Yellow, one step away from a Red Alert. The change in stage implies that the situation has changed from sporadic explosions to frequent small to intermediate explosions, the cause of which can be attributed to a possible dome collapse. Aerial pictures have indicated a new dome forming, which could lead to an eventual eruption. On July 14th, CENAPRED noted 6 low to moderate intensity explosions, 42 low-intensity exhalations and a volcanotectonic earthquake of low magnitude (2.5 on Richter scale).

Regions Affected: Mexico City has seen the most immediate effects, with cancellation of several flights, causing congestion in airports. The city has also seen ash deposits due to winds. These ashes represent a health risk to the population.  The Tlaxcala area to the north-east of the volcano has also seen ash deposits due to winds.  CENAPRED has recommended a safety radius of 12km around the volcano, where residents have been asked to evacuate.  The road between Santiago Xalitzintla (Puebla) and San Pedro Nexapa (Mexico State), including Paso de Cortes, is open only to controlled traffic. 

Effect on Businesses:  

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Given that air travel had resumed and not many roads affected, this eruption has had not caused the same complications as the eruption in Iceland. The volcano had previously been given a Yellow Stage III alert in April 2012, and preventive measures akin to current ones were employed. The volcano itself has seen a lot of activity since mid-90s. A new dome has formed as part of the crater’s activity. This is indicative of the beginning of a new sequence of dome growth and eventual collapse—a cycle that could take between months to years. In addition, activity at the volcano has stabilized as of July 15th. If these stable indicators continue to persist, the threat level could be lowered to stage II. Considering past history and current situation, it is unlikely that there would be a harmful effect on businesses in the near future. However, authorities continue to monitor the situation at the volcano and have recommended that safety measures be continued at present.

July 16, 2013

Sources: http://www.newsmax.com/thewire/popocatepetl-volcano-mexico-city/2013/07/12/id/514771 http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/popocatepetl-volcano-erupts-mexico-city/2013/07/05/id/513546 http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/popocatepetl.html http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/07/eruption-update-for-july-8-2013-popocatepetl-iwo-torishima-white-island/ http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/07/eruption-update-for-july-12-2013-popocatepetl-veniaminof-and-nevado-del-ruiz/ http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2013/07/13/mexico-airport-reopens-after-volcanic-ash-from-popocatepetl-cleared-away/ http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/popocatepetl/news.html http://www.armada-intel.com/popocatepetl-continues-to-erupt.html http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/es/Instrumentacion/InstVolcanica/MVolcan/ http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/07/increased-eruptions-at-mexicos-popocatepetl-cause-minor-air-travel-cancellations/ http://www.volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=341090 http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/cgi-bin/popo/reportes/ultrep.cgi http://www.cenapred.unam.mx/cgi-bin/popo/reportes/ultrepi2.cgi

Author: S. V. Aditya | Senior Research Analyst S.V. Aditya is a Senior Research Analyst at Beroe Inc. His area of expertise is primarily in the Engineering & Construction and with special interest in financial risks , supply chain risks , disruption analysis in the construction industry. He enables procurement decision making that influences spends of over $ 50 M, at Fortune 500 companies, including 4 of the top 10 in the Construction Industry.

Disclaimer: Strictly no photocopying or redistribution is allowed without prior written consent from Beroe Inc. The information contained in this publication was derived from carefully selected sources. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. Beroe Inc accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. For more information, please contact info@beroe-inc.com.

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