INTERNATIONALTRADE
Business EU Barometer 1st Quarter 2014
The Business EU Barometer from the British Chambers of Commerce gauges business sentiment on the UK’s relationship with the European Union. This quarter, respondents were again asked to give their view on the impact of different scenarios for Britain’s future relationship with the EU. The key points to emerge were:
Base: 3,443 Which scenario will have the biggest negative impact on your business?
Base: 3,443 What impact do you believe the Prime Minister’s renegotiation option will have on your business?
Base: 3,443 Which scenario will have the biggest positive impact on your business?
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ThinkingBUSINESS June-July 2014
• Business wants more decisions made in the UK: the scenario viewed most positively was for the UK to remain in the EU, but with specific powers transferred back to Westminster. 54% of respondents believe this would deliver a positive impact for their business (although this is down two points on Q4 2013 and seven points on the same quarter last year). • Most businesses think withdrawal from the EU would be bad for their business: the scenario viewed most negatively was full withdrawal from the EU. 61% of respondents believe this would have a negative impact (down one point on Q4 2013). • There is little support for further integration: 36% of respondents (down six points on Q4 2013) believe further integration would have a negative impact. 24% (unchanged) believe this scenario would be positive. • Uncertainty about the Prime Minister’s renegotiation strategy is rising: Almost one in five businesses are unsure about the impact of the Prime Minister’s renegotiation and referendum strategy. The figure is the highest on record at 19% (up three points on Q4 2013). BCC Comments “In the space of a year, business opinion on a renegotiated relationship with Europe has started to cool, and more UK firms are gradually stating they ‘don’t know’ how this would impact on their future prospects. Although we can’t be certain, there are a number of possible explanations. The on-going recovery, coupled with less frantic media headlines around the state of the eurozone over the last twelve months, could mean that businesses are less concerned about the UK’s relationship with the EU compared with a year ago. As voters head to the polls for Euro-elections here in the UK and across Europe, the increase in businesses who say they don’t know how these potential scenarios will affect the UK’s future should be a wake-up call for Britain’s political elites. Our findings suggest that the Prime Minister may soon need to shore up flagging business support for his ‘renegotiation and referendum’ strategy. Businesses are pragmatic about the EU, not ideological – and that debate over Britain’s future
Base: 4,664 Do you think the UK should join the Eurozone? Base: 2,685 Which, if any, of these would be a reason for the UK to join the Eurozone? (Based on those who think the UK should not join the Eurozone)
Base: 4,567 Do you think the UK should leave the EU? Base: 2.643 Which, if any, of these would be a reason for the UK to leave the EU? (Based on those who think the UK should not leave the EU) place in Europe must be rooted in hard evidence and good information.” John Longworth, Director General Further information Written and researched by Tom Nolan, Policy Manager - British Chambers of Commerce, 65 Petty France, London, SW1H 9EU T: +44 (20) 7650 5800 www.britishchambers.org.uk More information on the Quarterly Economic Survey is available at www.economicsurvey.org.uk
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