Actuarial Post | July 2021 by BB Media Co

ACTUARIAL POST FOR THE MODERN ACTUARY JULY 2021

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Execute a wide range of Solvency II quantitative risk management efforts with a focus on Internal Model validation for the Lloyd’s operation, and liaise with stakeholders for regulatory submissions.

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Actuarial Post Team EDITOR Jennifer Redwood jennifer@actuarialpost.co.uk SUB EDITOR Jennifer Stone article@actuarialpost.co.uk ADVERTISING MANAGER Alan Burns alan@actuarialpost.co.uk

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EDITOR’S NOTE New service. As strawberries and cream are being served at Wimbledon we also have three significant appointments served up in quick succession as Louise Pryor becomes IFoA President, Emma Douglas is appointed new Chair of the PLSA and Kate Jones becomes new Chair of the PPF, you can read more about these appointments in our Movers section. In this month’s magazine our front cover story is from Ben Churney at Verisk examining decision making on cyber insurance. In addition we also have articles, amongst others, on how Climate change presents huge opportunities for pension schemes from Dale Critchley, Dynamics of the insurance customer uncovered ahead of new pricing rules from Martyn Mathews at LexisNexis and Retirement adequacy – what is enough? From Fiona Tait. I trust you enjoy this month’s magazine and we look forward to welcoming you back next month

Jennifer Redwood

Legal Notice All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted without the prior permission of the publisher in writing. Whilst every care has been taken to ensure the accuracy, Actuarial Post cannot accept responsibility for loss of business to those referred to in this magazine as a result of errors.

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CONTENTS 10

News

Movers & Shakers

City Dealings

Cyber Risk Insurance

Tait’s Modern Pension

Inner Workings

The Automation of Insurance

Assett Management Pension Pillar

Retirement Puzzle

Lights, Camera, Actuary

Information Exchange

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NEWS JULY IFoA respond to proposals to changes to actuarial regulation The actuaries’ professional body supports the principles proposed, but has concerns regarding how they will be implemented The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) supports the proposed overall structure for UK actuarial regulation set out in the UK Government’s White

Paper, but has significant concerns about how this will work in practice. This conclusion is set out in the IFoA’s submission to the UK Government’s consultation on ‘Restoring Trust in Audit and Corporate Governance’. The Government proposes that a new UK regulator,

Olympics cancellation may cost insurance industry up to 3bn Insurers and reinsurers will be on tenterhooks over the next six weeks as the Tokyo Olympics’ opening nears, Bloomberg Intelligence says The International Olympic Committee (IOC) is committed to going ahead with the postponed 2020 Olympics, however, the IOC has taken out around $800 million in eventcancellation insurance, with additional cover purchased by the local organizing committee. READ MORE

the Audit, Reporting and Governance Authority (ARGA) – which will replace the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) – will take on responsibilities for actuarial regulation and oversight of the IFoA. The IFoA’s main concerns relate to an absence of READ MORE

Without carbon removal industry climate targets cant be hit The pathway to tackle climate change is clear: Reducing CO2 emissions is the priority and then any unavoidable emissions need to be removed from the atmosphere and stored permanently. The scale of the problem is daunting. Global emission levels need to be cut in half by 2030, reach net zero by 2050 and stay net negative throughout the second half of the century. This will require up to 10 to 20 billion tonnes of negative emissions per year in and after 2050. It will require a new industry the size of today’s oil and gas industry to deliver carbon removal services at such a scale. Therefore, the scaling of carbon removal must

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start now, in parallel to – not instead of – massive emission reduction efforts. The latest Swiss Re Institute report ‘The insurance rationale READ MORE

NEWS Myth busting on pensions tax savings

Take more risk or work 10 years longer

There has been a lot in the press recently about reforming pension tax. And there are good reasons for improving the pensions tax regime, both political and technical. However, this is a complex and often misunderstood area and it’s important that the key issues are well understood when proposing reform.

For a while now, we’ve been looking at the impact of the slump in rates of return over the last decade on those who are saving for their retirement. The usual argument is that people need to save more to compensate, hence our paper earlier this year on ‘is 12% the new 8%’.

By James Riley, SPP President, Steve Hitchiner, SPP Council for the Society of Pension Professionals As this paper explains, the size of the prize isn’t what you think? The majority of pensions tax relief relates to employer contributions to fill deficits in their defined benefit pension schemes, rather than contributions made by the member. Further, tax is paid on pensions in payment, so tax relief is largely tax deferral. More tax revenue now means less later. READ MORE

93 percent of Long Covid sufferers get support from employer As more is learned about the symptoms and effects of ‘Long-Covid’ research by Canada Life has revealed that the majority of employers are helping to support their colleagues. Around 1 in 20 people surveyed had received a positive test for Covid-19, of which 65% went on to experience symptoms associated with Long-Covid. Almost all (93%) of those surveyed with longCovid who work full time said they had been offered support by their employer as they return to work. This ranged from the ability to access virtual health and wellbeing services (37%), to work more flexibly (32%) and to reduce working hours (32%).

Long-Covid symptoms can vary widely from prolonged breathlessness and fatigue to joint pain and ‘brain fog’. Little is currently known about how long the symptoms last but a recent ONS survey revealed that 376,000 have experienced them for at least a year. Dan Crook, Protection Sales Director at Canada Life comments on the research: “The effects of the pandemic have wreaked on the nation’s workforce, either financially, mentally or physically. For a significant amount of people who have contracted the virus, they are left with a number of potentially READ MORE

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But we’ve now turned our attention to what younger people can do if they can’t afford to save more. As you might expect, the options are to seek higher returns through taking more risk and/or to work for longer. But how much more risk and/or work how much longer? Our new research, jointly between LCP and Becky O’Connor at Interactive Investor, find that on unchanged investment and unchanged contributions, you would need to work an extra *10* years to make up for the slump READ MORE

MOVERS & SHAKERS The latest moves and appointments from the actuarial marketplace Emma Douglas appointed as new PLSA Chair

Louise Pryor becomes IFoA President

he Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA) has announced that Emma Douglas will become its new Chair on Thursday 14 October 2021 at the PLSA’s Annual General Meeting (AGM).

Kate Jones has today been announced as the new Chair of the Pension Protection Fund (PPF), and will take up the post on 1 July 2021. Jones has been a non-executive member of the PPF Board since February 2016.

Ms Douglas was selected by a subcommittee of the Board after an open and transparent process that included advertising the role to all PLSA members. She will initially serve as PLSA Chair for three years; but this can be extended by up to a further three years. The appointment will see Ms Douglas succeed outgoing chair Richard Butcher, whose four-year tenure ends at the PLSA’s AGM. With a wealth of experience in the pensions industry, Ms Douglas has chaired the PLSA’s Policy Board since 2018, was most recently Head of DC at Legal & General Investment Management and will soon take on a new role as Managing Director, Workplace Savings at Aviva. As part of her role as Chair, Ms READ MORE

Kate Jones announced as new Chair of the PPF

The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) is delighted to announce that Louise Pryor FIA has begun her presidential term, taking over from Tan Suee Chieh FIA. Louise has been part of the Presidential team for the past year as President-elect. Matt Saker FIA joins the team as the next President-elect. IFoA President Louise Pryor said: “It’s a great honour to be chosen as the next President of the IFoA. We are living through a period of immense change which presents both challenge and opportunity. I want to build on the valuable work of my predecessors to ensure that the

The PPF plays a crucial role in protecting members of defined benefit pension schemes following the insolvency of an employer. If a scheme is unable to pay the pension it promised to its members, the PPF will ensure that compensation is paid. Minister for Pensions, Guy Opperman, said:I look forward to building a constructive and effective relationship with Kate Jones as she takes on this new appointment as the READ MORE

Barnett Barnett Waddingham appointed eight new Waddingham has partners among its 2021 promotions to support the promotes continued growth in client eight new demand and success at the organisation. partners

Alongside the new partners, there are also 17 principal and 25 associate promotions across a diverse range of business areas, advising trustees, employers, insurers and

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private clients. With the promotions taking effect on 1 June 2021, the total number of partners reaches 89. The promotions demonstrate READ MORE

CITY DEALINGS Keeping up to date on acquisitions, mergers and the dealings of companies in the city

Broadstone acquires PwC Private Client and Treasury team Broadstone Group has acquired PwC’s private client and treasury investment consulting team as it continues to grow its investment consulting practice. Commenting on the acquisition, Broadstone CEO, Grant Stobart, said: “This is an exciting, strategic move for Broadstone as we expand our investment consulting business. As a growing number of consultants pivot towards asset management, there is a growing opportunity for the independent oversight that we offer.

Ken McClintock, who leads the team moving to Broadstone, added that: “We are hugely excited to be joining Broadstone as it provides us with the ideal platform for future growth. We can continue to provide the same independent and expert advice to current and future clients, while expanding our range of advisory services.”

Aon and Willis Towers Watson on US Dept of Justice action SWISS RE DIVEST PHOENIX SHAREHOLDING FOR 437 MILLION READ MORE

Aon and Willis Towers Watson shared the following statement today in response to the legal action taken by the U.S. Department of Justice: “We disagree with the U.S. Department of Justice’s action, which reflects a lack of understanding of our business, the clients we serve and the marketplaces in which we operate. Aon and Willis Towers Watson operate across broad, competitive areas of the economy and our proposed combination will accelerate innovation on behalf of clients creating more choice in an already dynamic and competitive READ MORE

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XPS actuarial advisers to Church of Scotland Pensions Following a competitive tender process, XPS Pensions Group (XPS), the UK specialist in pensions, investment and administration services is pleased to announce its appointment by the Trustees of the Church of Scotland Pension Schemes to provide actuarial and investment advice to its defined benefit pension arrangements. The Church of Scotland is one of the largest organisations in Scotland, with over 330,000 members, and around 800 ministers serving parishes all around the country. The Church runs three defined benefit pension READ MORE

CYBER RISK INSURANCE HOW AGGREGATED CYBER DATA IS HELPING TACKLE INCONSISTENCIES AND MAKE INFORMED DECISIONS The continued lack of reliable cyber insurance data is causing data-driven decision making challenges for Lloyd’s and the wider London Market. Ben Churney, Director of Business Development at Verisk, discusses four advantages of aggregated cyber data and details how companies can look to get involved in this industry-wide strategy. Approximately 77 insurers within the London market offer cyber risk insurance solutions, and with most of its business deriving from the US the market is accountable for nearly a quarter of the global cyber risk market share. Since early 2020, Lloyd’s has stipulated transparency for all policies regarding coverage for losses incurred by a cyber event. According to Aon, the frequency of E&O and cyber claims in 2020 was up 100% from 2019, the majority relating to ransomware. Separate findings from AM Best found that the true number of cyber claims may be understated due to a lack of uniformity among cyber policies and reporting alongside the use of captive and surplus lines insurers to write cyber coverage. Despite rapid growth within the London market for cyber insurance, the widespread variety of strategies adopted by market participants towards cyber insurance are producing discrepancies in both modelling and product offerings. Four benefits to aggregated cyber data Insurers from across the industry will need to aggregate their data into a central source that will provide summarised metrics. This can help

London market companies manage their cyber insurance portfolios in four crucial ways: 1. Gathering credible and relevant data will bolster product credibility While there are many different vendors that offer cyber risk modelling, the results presented when comparing the outputs of these vendors are drastically different. At the 2021 CAT Risk Management & Modelling Summit in London, a comparison of various cyber aggregation models found inconsistencies regarding the probable maximum loss for different cyber risk scenarios such as mass data breaches, cloud outages and mass ransomware. Unlike other insurance perils that have the bonus of years of historical claims data to reflect on, cyber risk is still in early stages, and there’s a lack of loss data to support the growing number of different coverages. To help develop credible and relevant data, companies should aim to aggregate historical data, ideally from an extended period such as the past six years and subsequently on a regular basis. In doing so, companies including Lloyd’s syndicates will benefit from an extensive source of summarised industry business intelligence. 2. Interactive dashboards enhance decision making using relevant data London market underwriters may have difficulty evaluating the cyber risk on new submissions – especially for classes of business such as education, finance, manufacturing or healthcare – they may not have previously been exposed to.

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Determining the full cost of a cyber-attack can be a challenge, and cyber policy forms and coverages can vary significantly between companies. Coverage could for example relate to business interruption, extortion, incident liability, data recovery costs or incident response costs. With summarised industry cyber data and valuable claims information, such as attack vector, actor involved, assets compromised and what coverages were triggered, trends between the different types of incidents and coverages are easier to establish. Interactive dashboards with industry loss ratio heatmaps for different industry classes and revenue range buckets, can enable companies to see which segments of business have higher and lower loss ratios and the underlying premium amounts. Companies can in turn identify more profitable business. 3. Industrywide metrics increase market penetration and boost confidence Cyber insurance penetration remains comparatively low against other insurance perils, which is partially due to the lack of understanding around cyber risk. But low insurance penetration means less access to data, which can lead to low underwriting confidence. In turn, a vicious cycle can form as the low confidence in underwriting leads to restricted coverage options and doubt from buyers concerned over the value of insurance. According to a 2018 report from AIR Worldwide and Lloyd’s, the penetration of cyber insurance is estimated at less than 30 percent in the U.S., and much lower in the UK and other countries. The report also highlighted that the failure of a top cloud service provider in the U.S. for three to six days could cost the US economy $15 billion and insurers up to $3 billion – which highlights a significant protection gap.

Having access to industrywide metrics such as frequency, severity and trends across different dimensions can be very beneficial to companies analysing their portfolios or developing quantitative models — with particular focus on developing risk selection or pricing tools, support rate filings, conduct reserving analyses and profitability reviews of their book of business. 4. Comparative metrics mean standards are set Cyber-attacks are a delicate issue for all parties involved, and with the lack of transparency around cyber risk and its associated data, an insurer’s ability to confidently expand within this space is limited. It is important that while aggregating industry data in an exchange, all companies retain anonymity in their data. A central, anonymised exchange will encourage root cause analysis of company portfolios and help identify what may be driving their results, why they may diverge from the broader industry, and help build a better comparative understanding. Companies should be able to view their claim sizes by classes of business against the average industry claims by class, and also view the average written premium per cyber policy – including how this has developed over time. Strategic decision making strengthened by aggregated data Any industry exchange will need to guarantee anonymity by de-identifying all submitted company data and ensure the source of data is not revealed to other participants. Companies that contribute data should be able to do so in a manner that is most convenient for them, with no requirement to submit every field. Although a lack of cyber data is still prevalent in the industry, insurers can change this by collating years of previous metrics together and in doing so, mutually benefit from enhanced strategic data-driven decision making.

by Ben Churney, Director of Business Development, Verisk page 11

TAIT’S

MODERN

PENSIONS

Retirement adequacy – what is enough? In my last article I highlighted that while automatic enrolment (AE) has led to increasing numbers of people with pension saving, most are still not saving enough. This month the Pensions Policy Institute (PPI) published a report on retirement adequacy and I make no apology for returning to the subject again. Achieving adequacy for the population as a whole is, in my opinion, the biggest challenge to retirement policy given the shift from income-based defined benefit saving to capital-based defined contributions. According to the report, nearly 50% of people will fail to achieve a personally acceptable level of income in retirement, and fewer than 1 in 10 can expect to be ‘comfortable’. This is not a situation that can be allowed to continue. The problem is most people have no idea:

Individual savers are more likely to be interested in maintaining their own lifestyle and hence a ‘replacement income’ approach would be more useful. The Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association (PLSA) believes that most people would want more than just the minimum income and have developed their Retirement Living Standards. These Standards estimate that a ‘moderate’ standard of living in retirement may be provided by an annual income of £29,100 for a couple living outside of London but a ‘comfortable’ retirement would require £47,500 p.a. These figures provide a very helpful target but there are two further things to bear in mind: 1. The figures assume that income needs are likely to remain stable during retirement and PPI modelling suggests that this is not the case, with spending generally decreasing over time. 2. The figures do not take into account unexpected costs such as replacing household items or coping with illness or divorce.

a. How much they will need to support themselves in retirement, and b. How much they need to save to provide this What is adequate? The report begins by considering the first question. Unsurprisingly, different people want different things, and different groups also have different objectives. The government wants to keep people out of poverty and avoid their having to fall back on the State for support. It makes sense therefore that they focus on finite measurements as exemplified by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s ‘basket of goods’ approach. By this measure the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) is £10,712 for a single retiree and £16,536 for a couple, which is just about covered by the new State Pension (assuming full entitlement). Focussing on this measure allows the government to work to their objective of covering basic needs without burdening the taxpayer with the additional cost of helping those who are better off to stay that way.

Therefore the amounts needed should ideally be supplemented by ‘rainy day’ money and considered over a period of time, which is why cashflow modelling is so useful. How much is needed to provide adequacy? The Retirement Living Standards provide nonpensions people with a realistic and objective target for their savings, but that is only half of the job. The second question is how much is needed to provide those income levels for as long as they are required. This is the real kicker for those who have never considered their pension beyond not opting out of the workplace scheme or, worse, actually think that 8% of band earnings is sufficient. PPI modelling suggests that a ‘moderate’ income, of £20,700 for a single person, requires a retirement fund of at least £440,000 at age 67. A ‘comfortable’ income of £37,300 requires a fund of over £1m.

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Is this the most important chart in pensions planning? In a defined benefit (DB) dominated world, savers do not need to worry about this part of the equation however, as we become more reliant on defined contribution (DC) savings it becomes crucial, and most people are unaware of that.

It is therefore vital that government, the pensions industry and ideally employers, do everything they can to communicate it. Tools are available but the report found that very few people use them. How bad is the problem? It’s bad. According to the report only 10%C of DC savers are on course to preserve their living standards in retirement. Despite automatic enrolment we haven’t moved far from the Pensions Commissions original 4 choices. Unless something changes people will need to: • Save more than 8% of band or even total earnings • Work longer, at least until State Pension Age • Be given higher State Pensions at the likely cost of additional taxes • Accept a less affluent retirement As things stand savers are unwittingly opting for the fourth choice, we need to help them to understand the first choice.

by Fiona Tait Technical Director Intelligent Pensions page 14

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INNER WORKINGS FLEXIBILITY IS VITAL FOR SALES CHANNELS

by Tom Murray Head of Product Strategy LifePlus Solutions, Majesco Those old enough to watch TV in the in the 1970’s will remember the Martini advert with the tag-line “Anytime, Anyplace, Anywhere…”. Although the phrase was somewhat weakened by the tautology, the idea was clear - The customer could consume the product on their own terms rather than be dictated to by others. Whilst the idea was a tad dramatic for a drink commercial, there is no doubt that for any consumer, being able to control the transaction on their own terms rather than being dictated to by the vendor is an important feature. The move to digital is reinforcing that desire among consumers to have full control over their interaction with all companies, including life and pension companies. The engagement must be as and when the customer wants it. In order to facilitate this, providers can no longer have completely separate sales channels but must allow consumers to move between the different channels at will, using digital portals or engaging via phone, text or face to face meeting depending upon their needs.

This approach also fits with the fact that significant numbers of consumers – 24% according to a recent McKinsey report - still wish to deal with their life and pension providers in the traditional way. They want to meet with agents and brokers directly, rather than interfacing via the Internet. As a result, a 100% online strategy is not sufficient for life and pension providers to reach the whole market. Given these facts, the move to digital channels will have to complement rather than replace the traditional face to face or phone channels used heretofore. And it is not sufficient for these channels to just co-exist; they must interact, allowing consumers to switch as required when they need assistance rather than abandon the process. The flexibility demanded by consumers extends not just to how they interact with insurers but when. They want to be able to engage at a time that suits them, rather than being restricted by the office hours the company has decided upon. Rather than adjust to the needs of a business, they want it to adjust to their needs by being available outside of traditional office hours.

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The important factor will be to keep the customer journey as easy and intuitive as possible. That means making sure that people can switch across from channel to channel on demand – preferably without having to re-enter or explain any information that has already been given. It means enabling them to engage with a chatbot or an agent to cover a particular query and then resume an online journey. It mean making it possible to complete a lot of the basics of a fact-find online prior to meeting an agent, thereby making the meeting more efficient by pre-empting routine information gathering. Without these features, the life and pension company will be unable to meet the demands of the customer-centric marketplace that is emerging as the new normal. The provision of these flexible distribution strategies can only be achieved efficiently if life insurers use cloud platforms to support all their channels. By using a centralised, secure platform, the insurer can manage any interaction between them that the customer demands on a 24/7 basis. Use of cloudbased platforms to provide real-time interaction around the clock to customers is becoming

ubiquitous across all business sectors and life assurers cannot ignore the trend. Centralising channels and using a common platform for services brings other benefits as well. By utilising a single platform for all their channels the company is able to track customer journeys and identify bottlenecks and key points where potential customers pause or abandon the sales process. Getting the most out of the platform means that it must have powerful capacity to analyse how customers use the systems and where they need help or encouragement to proceed to closure. Without this level of flexibility, life and pension providers will be left stranded as the rest of the world adapts to the digitally driven, customer centricity of the post-pandemic world. Any digital strategy that involves abandoning sectors of the market is doomed to failure. The trick is to unify the provision of services for all channels and make them work seamlessly together. Undoubtedly, this is a hard trick to pull off but it is vital to do so in a world that prioritises flexibility for the consumer and consumer needs.

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THE AUTOMATION OF INSURANCE ASSET MANAGEMENT: ARE THE ROBOTS TAKING OVER? The economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has forced every industry to adapt to new circumstances and realities – with the insurance sector (notorious as often being a late adapter) being no exception. In particular, a surge in health, travel and business claims as a result of the pandemic has created additional financial uncertainty and strain. Many insurers are, therefore, increasingly scrutinising their operations and assessing where they can improve efficiency and reduce costs. This comes at a time where insurers are also looking into diversifying their portfolios by investing in different asset classes. Whereas traditionally companies may have looked to improve efficiency and reduce costs through restructuring, outsourcing or implementing new processes, increasingly companies of all shape and size – including those within the insurance sector – are turning to technological solutions, as a means of future proofing and bringing about digital transformation. What exactly do we mean by digital transformation? Digital transformation can be defined as the replacement of non-digital (or manual) processes with digitalised processes. At its heart, the process involves implementing specialist technologies that ‘digitalise’ operations, in turn optimising them and making them far more efficient. This enables money to be saved, risk to be reduced, resources to be redeployed and processes to be streamlined – so businesses can work smarter and faster.

Some of the technologies central to digital transformation include Artificial Intelligence (AI), Robotic Process Automation (RPA) or Intelligent Automation (IA) – a combination of both. Within the insurance sector, these technologies can be employed across the back, middle and front end of a business. From strengthened client relations and automated claims processing through to improved fraud detection and human staff freed to focus on nonmundane tasks, digital transformation positively disrupts many aspects of an insurance company’s operations. For asset managers, data collection, capture, validation, management and analysis (which leads to better risk and performance calculation and more efficient reporting) can now be completely automated. Automating these processes leads to better investment management decisions, increased client satisfaction and happier staff – as employees can focus on decisions where human decision making is required. Doing so means better investment management decisions can be made in the front office, client satisfaction increases and middle and back-office servicing perspectives and employee satisfaction increases - as back and middle office employees can focus on tasks where human decision making is required. There remains, however, much scepticism and many misconceptions around digital transformation. The first misconception is that digital transformation is unnecessary, a luxury, or just a tech fad. Wider fears and misconceptions also remain that ‘the robots are taking over’ and that human jobs within

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asset management will be replaced with robots and automated processes (what is referred to as the ‘jobocolypse’). Firstly, the reality is that those insurers that fail to digitally transform are ultimately doomed. This applies to all segments of the insurance value chain - from insurance investment management to claims processing, to data capture and processing. Whilst this may sound dramatic, those businesses that continue to operate along purely analogue lines in a digital world will quickly see themselves overtake by the competition. In the long term, beyond the pandemic, there will remain a clear need for digital transformation as a means not just of maintaining a competitive advantage, but surviving. Secondly, technology tools within digital transformation such as RPA aim to automate repetitive, manual, mundane high-volume tasks that do not require expertise but take up valuable employee time – freeing up humans to focus on tasks that require human interaction, or the expertise of a highly trained employee. So whist digital transformation does mean some jobs become obsolete, this, in turn, actually leads to more jobs, albeit of a different type, being created. Given RPA cannot function or be configured without human intelligence, it has not yet been a source of unemployment. On the contrary, evidence shows a technology gap in skilled employees. The technology is there to enhance, not to replace. This means a happier, better skilled and more fulfilled workforce – not the redundancies or replacement asset managers may fear. When it comes to the ‘people’ aspect of digital transformation, a positive culture and mindset are vital, as well as ongoing investment into the right people. Upskilling and reskilling staff so that they are trained and savvy in digital transformation

software and methods is crucial, as is buy-in to a “go digital” culture. Regarding implementation, there are five key stages to successfully implementing digital transformation known as the ADKAR model: awareness; desire; knowledge; ability and reinforcement. Effectively communicating the why digital transformation is necessary, having a desire to undertake transformation, knowing how a digital transformation strategy can be implemented, having the right and able people to implement this strategy and ongoing reinforcement through culture and investment are the keys. It is of course vital for businesses looking to digitally transform to do so responsibly and in the right way. Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) research shows that major technology changes lead to more incidents initially, and so digital transformation risk management and best practice are absolute essential components in the transition. Partnering with well-established FinTech companies eliminate this risk, so for insurers not looking to “go digital” in-house, there is a sustainable and secure solution too. Furthermore, it must remembered that not all processes can be digitally transformed. Some companies will make the mistake of trying to automate everything, but ultimately a bad process will still be a bad process whether automated or not. The winning combination in terms of process is almost always what is referred to as “phgital” – that is, a mixture of the physical and digital. Ultimately, in a rapidly changing world – in which society, client demands and technology are all transforming at a rapid pace – insurance businesses armed with latest technologies will be the ones that can pivot, innovate, win more business, better look after their staff and ultimately better deliver for clients. That is why now is the time for asset managers within the insurance sector to be investing in their digital future.

by Dr Zeynep Hizir page 19

PENSION PILLAR

CLIMATE CHANGE PRESENTS HUGE OPPORTUNITIES FOR PENSION SCHEMES

The risks that the climate crisis presents for pension schemes are often discussed, but with 6 months before the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow it’s worth reflecting on how much is being done by pension schemes to seize the opportunities, and what more could be done. The sources of green energy - the sun and wind - are free, but the infrastructure necessary to turn that energy into electricity, and deliver it to where it’s needed, is not. Offshore wind turbines, with blades longer than the wingspan of any airliner, generating gigawatts of electricity, into a grid that can deliver power to homes and industries, demands huge capital investment. A report by the International Energy Agencyi

(IEA) in May this year estimated that by 2030, just 9 years from now, we’ll need to be building wind and solar power at around 4 times the current rate. The annual investment in clean energy will need to be £4trn, around 3 times the average over the past 5 years. At the same time, investment in old technology will need to reduce and will be replaced. The G7 have committed to placing limits on coal, a decision that won’t have gone down well in the coal fields of Saxony and Wyoming. The IEA report predicts that the global market for coal will decline to less than half of current levels over the next nine years, with the market for copper quadrupling over the same period.

page 20

Markets for Lithium, Nickel, Graphite and Cobalt are similarly expected to soar in the face of a low carbon revolution and 60% of new cars will need to be powered by electricity in 2030. There is an argument that markets will reflect the likely winners and losers in the transition to a low carbon economy, and that the risk is priced into those markets. That’s not an opinion shared by many however, and there are signs that activist investors are looking to intervene where they see inactivity on environmental issues casting a cloud over company performance. Engine number 1, a US activist investor, has recently installed three Directors onto the Exxon Mobil board, citing a lack of planning for a low carbon future as the reason for their intervention. Their aim is to secure shareholder value in a world economy based on clean electricity, not necessarily to shift the needle on climate change. So, what does all this mean for pension schemes? The primary role of trustees and pension scheme providers is to provide returns for their scheme members. The scale of investment in new economies presents a huge opportunity to invest scheme assets directly in the low carbon infrastructure that’s going to be required. It’s an opportunity that’s been recognised by government and reflected in a focus on enabling greater investment of pension assets in illiquid investments. While there’s work to do to enable meaningful illiquid investment in DC pensions the opportunity is clear. Active management and stewardship present further opportunities. The collective

investments of UK pension schemes total around £2.524 trnii, providing trustees and fund managers with the leverage to influence the direction of company boards where they don’t see a clear plan to flourish. Policies on stewardship offer an opportunity to generate greater returns for members and shape the future direction of the companies that our pensions are invested in. Away from direct engagement there’s an opportunity for the pensions industry to take a lead in promoting investment in a low carbon future. Aviva’s commitment to achieve net zero by 2040 has been followed by others. We’ve also recently announced a partnership with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF). While this relationship might not be immediately obvious, biodiversity is inextricably linked to climate change. Plants store the equivalent of 27% of all carbon emissions each year, so protecting this capability is essential. A focus on environmental issues also has the potential to engage employees. People may not understand that the way their pension scheme is invested, or who it’s invested with, can have a direct impact on climate change, and their potential wealth in retirement. Aviva is looking at a system to provide pension scheme members with the ability to provide their views ahead of shareholder votes, but schemes should consider the opportunity to use more traditional communications too, to make members aware of how their investments are being used to deliver a more secure future for all of us.

i https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/4482cac7-edd6-4c03-b6a2-8e79792d16d9/NetZeroby2050ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector.pdf ii

https://www.thinkingaheadinstitute.org/content/uploads/2021/02/GPAS__2021.pdf

by Dale Critchley Policy Manager Aviva page 21

RETIREMENT PUZZLE I GOT 99 PERCENTILE BUT MY RISK AIN’T ONE One challenge worth making is why the 95th percentile is so commonly used as the standard risk measure. For several assets, such as individual bonds, ILS and options, it arguably understates the risk that can lurk in the tail. So why not be more conservative and use, for instance, the 99th, or 99.5th, percentile as the main risk metric? As a general guide to building a model, it makes sense to start with the largest components with the most data. Using Shiller’s data, we can track US equity excess returns back to 1870 and compare these to what we’d expect from a log-normal and a log-logistic distribution (which ends up looking somewhat likWe a fat-tailed normal distribution). The famous fat tails in equity distributions only really appear beyond the 5% tail.

This can be interpreted as evidence for either approach. On the one hand, if historic returns are more straightforward up to around the 95th percentile mark, then you can have far more confidence in that figure. On the other hand, if the extreme tail has experienced far more dramatic moves, you might want a risk metric that tracks it. It’s worth stepping back and thinking about how this data emerges. If I have 150 years of equity returns, I should expect around 7 or 8 95th percentile moves – especially since the distribution is not overly dramatic at that point. Therefore, I can be fairly confident that I have a sensible answer. However, for the 99th percentile, I should only expect 1 or 2 cases. That’s all true, but not massively helpful. Instead, can we translate this uncertainty into something easier to understand? In the table below, we simulated 10,000 random historic 150-year periods, assuming either a log-normal or a loglogistic distribution. This shows how likely it is that the value observed over any given 150-year period was more than

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a given percentage error away from the underlying ‘true’ value. We express these as absolute (not log) returns and run them for 40-year and 20-year time horizons. For the log-normal distribution, the increased uncertainty is largely offset by the increased range (as the allowed error is proportional to shock size). However, as soon as the distribution has fat tails, the tails become less predictable. This analysis assumes equities follow a simple distribution and that the parameters we happen to have observed are the true underlying ones, so this will understate the risk of being wrong. Even so, there’s still a 5% chance that the historical 95th percentile is more than 30% off the true value. And this is with equities; for many risk factors we have much shorter histories. Even with these generous assumptions, with a 20-year history (for example), it’s more likely than not that the realised 99th percentile is more than 30% out. Which means that, when you get into the tail, you really don’t know how extreme things will be and so you’re having to extrapolate a distribution out anyway. Hence, while the extreme tail may be a useful secondary risk metric, for most cases it makes sense to compromise and use a less extreme, less uncertain part of the tail as the main risk metric.

by Alex White Head of ALM Research Redington page 23

search & selection

LIGHTS, CAMERA, ACTUARY!

Bolton Associates’ focus is specifically in the non-life actuarial space; the largest dedicated GI actuarial specialist in the market. Working throughout the insurance market, the consultants at Bolton Associates offer an exceptional service, managing the process with the utmost tact and respect for all parties. We are passionate about our market, taking great interest in the insurance world as a whole, keeping up with trends and changes, and maintaining our everexpanding network. We are good at what we do, because we enjoy what we do.

The next focus for Bolton Associates’ Spotlight page, is an interview with one of the actuaries who dedicates their own time to sitting on GI Committees or establishing Working Parties, for the benefit of the wider GI Actuarial Profession. The Actuarial Profession relies heavily on volunteers, who are happy to design and implement annual events and conferences, or who are keen to present and share their expertise and findings, for the benefit of the profession and their peers. From the GI Board, to GILL, GIRTL and the GIRO Conference, Zoe Bolton will be talking to the actuaries who dedicate their time, and contribute to the continuous development of the actuarial community, and getting a brief insight into their career paths and visions for the future. This month Zoe talks to Peter Moore, Actuarial Senior Manager at BDO UK LLP.

What is your current role, and how did you end up in it?

My actuarial training is the foundation for everything I do day-to-day.

I am a senior manager in BDO’s insurance team, having spent my career thus far in health and nonlife insurance consulting.

This is not only the actuarial training gained through passing the exams and qualifying, but also the invaluable knowledge picked up from on the job experiences as well as GIRO and other conferences.

I have also volunteered for the GI Lifelong Learning Committee and its predecessor, the GIRO Committee, since 2017 and am currently the deputy chair. What is the defining moment of your career to date? There are many events and choices that I made that have lead me to where I am today. My decision to move to and work in the UK and qualifying as an actuary are probably two of the bigger ones. In your opinion, what prepared you best to take on your current role?

When did you first join the Institute & Faculty of Actuaries, and what advice would you give to those students looking to emulate your career path? I join the profession in 2007 when I started working. My advice would be to try and learn as much as you can from the role that you are in and the people around you, and to never be scared to challenge yourself and find new opportunities to learn and grow, either within your own firm or elsewhere. If you had your time again, what would you do, career-wise?

My entire career to date has been about helping clients measure and manage their risks, and this experience is precisely what is needed when performing my current role.

As with many people I have spoken to, I have considered what life might have been like if I had chosen a different career.

What is the biggest challenge you face in your role within this market?

However, I have been happy in my career so far, and wouldn’t really want to change it.

Juggling commitments both at and outside of work during the lockdowns, when schools were closed, is probably the biggest challenge I have faced in my role to date.

Please share your favourite piece of trivia with our readers!

How does your actuarial training and background assist in your day-to-day role now?

The Guinness World Record for the longest tennis rally lasted over 12 hours. The stamina and ability required to pull this off is mind-blowing.

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INFORMATION EXCHANGE DYNAMICS OF THE INSURANCE CUSTOMER UNCOVERED AHEAD OF NEW PRICING RULES Following the publication of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) policy statement on general insurance pricing practicesi, it is clear that a deeper understanding of the customer will be critical in this new regulatory environment and will almost certainly demand a much more granular level of risk assessment as part of the renewal process. Indeed, the FCA has previously confirmed the new rules do not intend to restrict the risk factors that firms can use in calculating the new business price or the renewal quoteii.

In contrast, those who buy their insurance through an intermediated insurer tend to be slightly older at 55, but that is a 10-year difference on those buying direct, who are on average 45 years of age.

This all means insurance providers will need to use data, analytics and technology to understand their existing customer base to a far greater degree than they may do today, to help them deliver the right cover at the right price when the customer is offered a renewal quote. The new pricing regime will impact all corners of the market - direct insurers, intermediated insurers, large and small brokers. Based on a benchmarking exercise we undertook at LexisNexis Risk Solutions, each segment of the market could be impacted to varying degrees and have different considerations when ensuring they deliver fair value to their customer at renewal. Analysisiii of over 200 million insurance quotes per day has uncovered noteworthy variations in customer age profiles, retention levels and risks for these four key segments of the market. 50 is the average age of a personal lines insurance customer

The average age of an insurance customer buying personal lines insurance is 50. People who choose to buy their insurance through smaller, independent regional brokers are younger on average at 43, challenging any preconceptions that it is older generations who appreciate the personal touch offered by smaller regional brokers. The customers of larger broking groups are 51 on average.

Direct Insurers cover more named drivers Direct insurers have one of the youngest customer bases and they are also underwriting more ‘named drivers’ than any other group. Just 35 percent of their motor books of business have no named drivers on a policy, while 21 percent have two or more. For smaller brokers, 52 percent of their motor book is main proposer only and just five percent have two or more named drivers. Named drivers pose an additional risk to insurance providers and can also create fraud risks such as fronting and ghost broking. The analysis highlights the importance of validating the identity of named drivers to the same level as main proposers. Switching rate at 32% While direct insurers face more risks in relation to named drivers, the LexisNexis Risk Solutions analysis has found they are much more resilient to

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the risks of policy cancellations and out-perform their competitors in customer retention. LexisNexis Risk Solutions identified that the average switching rate across all the segments’ motor insurance books is 32 percent. However, for direct insurers specifically, just 22 percent of customers switched their policy at renewal compared to 53 percent of the customers of small brokers. Direct insurers also have a 70 percent retention rate and the lowest rate of cancellations for the whole of the market. 25% have stayed with the same insurance provider for over 5 years. Perhaps the most thought-provoking finding from the analysis is that across all segments, an average of 25 percent of people have stayed with the same insurance provider for more than five years and have not shopped around for cover. This insight is highly valuable as the market adjusts its pricing practices in-line with the new FCA pricing rules, particularly at renewal. Building a holistic view of existing customers’ needs is a good starting point. This can be done by leveraging a unique identifier such as LexID® that connects existing customer data to provide a single customer view. Approaching policy renewal, insurance providers will want to identify customers shopping around to support pricing consistency and retention strategies. This is where having a unique identifier

for each customer brings further value as it enables existing policyholders to be flagged during the quote process. Quote behaviour data brings a further dimension to the understanding of risk, enabling insurance providers to offer the most suitable products at the right price. By viewing related quotes even where a key detail such as address or vehicle are different – it is possible to gain a better understanding of the customer where they may have made a change between quotes and at what point they are shopping in relation to the policy start date or renewal date. As well as assisting in risk assessment, shopping behaviour data could support the regulatory reporting requirements by providing known information on customers’ shopping history. Finally, as the FCA rules require renewal pricing strategies to be consistent with current new business pricing, it is more important than ever to use data enrichment for renewal quotes to ensure it aligns with the data enrichment used to price new business quotes. The most sophisticated data enrichment solutions allow risk assessment at individual, asset, household and postcode level with intelligence delivered on all individuals associated with the quote in a single transaction. Gaining a deeper understanding of the customer will be absolutely critical in this new regulatory environment and that will come from the right blend of insurance specific data, analytics and technology to create an up-to-date and detailed view of the customer both at new business and at renewal.

Source: LexisNexis Risk Solutions

https://www.fca.org.uk/publications/policy-statements/ps21-15-general-insurance-pricing-practices-market-study https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/corporate/gi-pricing-q-and-a.pdf iii LexisNexis Risk Solutions Internal Analysis i

by Martyn Matthews, Snr Director of Personal and Commercial Lines, at LexisNexis Risk Solutions page 27

TEMPORARY JOBS • LIFE • GRADUATE • CONSULTANTS • TEMPORARY JOBS • LIF OBS • £100K+ • CONSULTANTS • TEMPOR IMMEDIATE JOBS • £100K+ • CONSULTAN ATE • PENSION • IMMEDIATE JOBS • £100K LIFE • GRADUATE • PENSION • IMMEDIAT PORARY JOBS • LIFE • GRADUATE • PENS SULTANTS • TEMPORARY JOBS • LIFE • G £100K+ • CONSULTANTS • TEMPORARY MEDIATE JOBS • £100K+ • CONSULTANTS ENSION • IMMEDIATE JOBS • £100K+ • CO RADUATE • PENSION • IMMEDIATE JOBS JOBS • LIFE • GRADUATE • PENSION • IMM • TEMPORARY JOBS • LIFE • GRADUATE • CONSULTANTS • TEMPORARY JOBS • LIF OBS • £100K+ • CONSULTANTS • TEMPOR IMMEDIATE JOBS • £100K+ • CONSULTAN

RECRUI

PENSION • IMMEDIATE JOBS • £100K+ • FE • GRADUATE • PENSION • IMMEDIATE RARY JOBS • LIFE • GRADUATE • PENSION NTS • TEMPORARY JOBS • LIFE • GRADU K+ • CONSULTANTS • TEMPORARY JOBS TE JOBS • £100K+ • CONSULTANTS • TEM SION • IMMEDIATE JOBS • £100K+ • CONGRADUATE • PENSION • IMMEDIATE JOBS JOBS • LIFE • GRADUATE • PENSION • IM • TEMPORARY JOBS • LIFE • GRADUATE ONSULTANTS • TEMPORARY JOBS • LIFE S • £100K+ • CONSULTANTS • TEMPORAR MEDIATE JOBS • £100K+ • CONSULTANTS • PENSION • IMMEDIATE JOBS • £100K+ • FE • GRADUATE • PENSION • IMMEDIATE RARY JOBS • LIFE • GRADUATE • PENSION NTS • TEMPORARY JOBS • LIFE • GRADU

ITMENT

search & selection Technical Provisions Manager

Reserving Actuary

General Insurance Circa £90,000 Per Annum London

Leading Syndicate seeks Technical Provisions Manger to join London team. Hybrid opportunity working across functions, closely with Chief Actuary and Finance Director. Nearly/newly qualified actuary, strong understanding and experience of producing SII Technical Provisions. Lloyd’s/London Market Reserving required. Expert VBA, Excel and SQL.

Exciting opportunity to join a leading insurer, who are seeking a dynamic and commercially minded reserving actuary to join the corporate team. This hire will work closely with the Reserving function and other functions within the business. Experience working with varied lines of business such as Property, Professional Lines, Marine, Energy and Aviation is advantageous.

REF: ZB 001758 SC

REF: ZB 001755 MM

Pricing Analyst / Actuary

Risk Manager

General Insurance £65,000 - £100,000 Per Annum London

General Insurance Circa £90,000 Per Annum London

Global re/insurance company has an opening for an actuarial analyst / nearly qualified to join their pricing team. The role will cover multi lines, will be supporting the underwriters across both company and syndicate business. Ideally you will be working in pricing and have an interest in developing your programming skills in R / Python. Strong interpersonal skills are essential.

Global reinsurer are hiring a Risk Manager to join its expanding team working across UK, Syndicate and Global business. Reporting to the CRO, you will be responsible for the quantitative and qualitative assessment of the risk management framework and analyses; risk reporting and governance and contributing to wider business planning with senior leadership. Several years P&C actuarial required.

REF: ZB 001747 CC

REF: ZB 001751 HT

Chief Actuary

Reinsurance Broker

General Insurance Up to £185,000 Per Annum London

General Insurance Up to £200,000 Per Annum London

Managing Agency seeks Chief Actuary to lead a small but growing team. This role requires strong actuarial expertise across all areas including reserving, capital modelling and pricing, organisational skills, and the capacity to develop the Actuarial Function in line with the growth of the business. The role will need to satisfy regulatory requirements.

If you are personable, commercially minded and a qualified actuary, this opportunity may be of interest. Our client, a global broking house is looking to expand the team and further establish it’s cutting edge analytics offering to its clients. London market experience is key, and additionally those with casualty or motor backgrounds will be very well received.

REF: ZB 001764 ZB

REF: ZB 001692 ZB

www.bolton-associates.co.uk page 24 30 +44 (0)207 250 4718 Bolton Associates, 5 St. John’s Lane, London, EC1M 4BH