Monitor ISSUE 29
Russia & Ukraine: reflections on a year of war Russia specialist Yaroslava Kiryukhina and Ukraine specialist Yana Lyushnevskaya share their reflections on the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s misjudged expectations Yaroslava Russian state TV had for years instilled in its audience the notion of Ukraine as a weak Western puppet state 4
Russia’s initial hopes for a lightning speed defeat of Ukraine soon unravelled as misjudged expectations, and experts in Russia blame poor intelligence as the main reason for this ambitious failed plan. The Federal Security Service (FSB) expected Russian troops to be welcomed with flowers but that simply did not happen – not even in cities considered pro-Russian. In cities like Kherson, there were protests against the occupation – and occupation officials were killed in Berdyansk and elsewhere. For years, Russian state TV has been instilling in its audience the notion that Ukraine is a weak “nationalist” state headed by a Western “puppet”, while boasting about Russia’s “unrivalled” weapons. With this groundwork already in place, favourable public opinion was taken for granted and state media’s one-side coverage of the war was assumed adequate.
Yana
Before the invasion, Russia was seen as the stronger military power, but it was also evident that Ukrainians were not going to give up their country without a fight. By 2022, Ukraine was no longer the state it was in 2014, when it lost Crimea with barely a shot fired. Now it had a bigger, better trained and more experienced army, a strong civil society and, even more importantly, a much-needed ability to unite when facing an existential threat. While the Russian army's failures and setbacks were somewhat unexpected, the skill and motivation displayed by the Ukrainian troops were not. The level of hostility towards Ukraine in the Russian media did not come as a surprise to Ukrainians – after all, the "propaganda war" had been going on since 2014. But what did shock most people was how many Russians would rather believe their state media than their own relatives and friends in Ukraine – including the ideas that Russia was there to "liberate" or "protect" Ukrainians, that it was not bombing civilians or that the destruction of Ukrainian cities was the work of Ukrainian troops. It cannot all be blamed on Russian propaganda, however. The ideas that Ukraine was not a proper independent state or that the Ukrainian language was somehow inferior to Russian have long been rooted in the minds of many Russians.
Today there are banners in the streets of Moscow and other major cities showing the “glorious” servicemen who lost their lives in Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine. The banners replaced Western ads after major companies quit Russia after the invasion. However, the main symbol of the Russian invasion – the letter Z – is becoming a rare sight.
YAROSLAVA KIRYUKHINA
Ukraine was no longer the state it was in 2014 when it lost Crimea
Apart from its appearance mainly on municipal vehicles, there is a lack of nationwide support for it, although a state pollster put support for the war at about 70% of those polled throughout the year.
MONITORING.BBC.CO.UK
Banners show “glorious” servicemen who lost their life in Ukraine.