FLEET REPORT would have been new aircraft transactions. Yet even within this challenging market, Dassault continues to soar, remaining one of the leading suppliers of high-end business jets in Russia and CIS, with a third of the large cabin market. “The success of the Falcon line in the Russian region stems from their robustness, advanced design and fuel efficiency,” says Gilles Gautier, Vice President, Falcon Sales for Dassault Aviation. “These features make them perfect for the vast expanse and rugged conditions of the Russian marketplace.”
12 MONTH WORLD WIDE TURBINE FLEET 2014
2015
Unit Change
Growth
Worldwide
34.755
35.682
927
2.7%
United States
19.229
19.894
665
3.5%
Africa
1.301
1.343
42
3.2%
Asia
2.359
2.506
147
6.2%
Europe
3.902
3.803
-99
-2.5%
North America
22.426
23.118
692
3.1%
677
702
25
3.5%
3.350
3.376
26
0.8%
Australia & Oceania South America
2015 BUSINESS JET DELIVERY FORECAST IN UNITS
PLANNING
Purchases in South America remain more front-loaded than the world average.
South America Moving on to South America, we see that Business Aviation grew slightly, up from 3,360 to 3,376 aircraft. Brazil’s growth rate shows a slight decrease from 1,635 to 1,611, while Venezuela grew from 738 to 764 units and Colombia from 328 to 332. The Brazilian currency, the Real, reached its lowest point against the dollar in 10 years. As the purchase of aircraft and parts are made in US dollars, the exchange rate heavily impacted Brazilian companies. Economic recovery in Brazil before 2016 is unlikely, but Brazilian Association of General Aviation (ABAG) officials say by mid-2016 they hope to see improvements, though smaller companies could be struggling until 2017. Calling the Central and South American Business Aviation market “an industry life buoy” over the world-
36 - BART: MARCH - APRIL 2016
wide economic slowdown, analyst Brian Foley, founder of Brifo consultancy, believes that is about to change: “This market has entered a cyclic downturn that will be more pronounced than previous ones,” says Foley. He goes on to say that sales of private jets, turboprops and helicopters are exhibiting continuous declines in year-over-year growth rates. “Growth approached or exceeded double digits as recently as 2011,” he says. “But that growth has ebbed to low, singledigit rates over the last year. It is my thesis that the fleet will eventually contract over the next few years, with equipment either being idled or sold to more prosperous regions of the world such as the US.” A variety of factors - including debt, inflation, weakened currencies, declining GDP growth and political tension – have contributed to the situ-
ation, none of which will be rectified soon. “The final hit, with perhaps the greatest implication, is the drop off in commodity prices, including around a 50-percent drop in oil prices over the past year,” he says. “As a region with an economy heavily dependent on natural resources, the full effects have yet to be seen and will linger throughout these economies for years.” A possible exception to this is Mexico. As a key trading partner it has been indirectly benefitting from the US economic recovery. “Given all of the manufacturing projects outsourced to Mexico by general aviation manufacturers, that’s a welcome way to reciprocate,” adds Foley. Latin American purchase plans rose and lead all regions, according to Honeywell. Latin America’s 18% share of total projected demand between now and 2025 grew slightly compared with a year ago. Twenty-nine percent of the Latin America sample fleet expects to be replaced or added to with new jet purchases, which is one point higher than last year’s survey. And nearly 48%of this region’s projected purchases are timed to happen between 2015 and 2017. “Latin America, despite some rough current economic conditions, is expected to be the 3rd largest market for deliveries, superseded by Western Europe, the second largest sales market,” says Brian Kough, director of forecasts & analysis with Aviation Week Intelligence Network. “Our actual delivery estimates have diminished noticeably this year compared to last, but we still feel sales will be pretty solid given the current economic, financial and geopolitical conditions.”