Executive Summary

The CMF draws from our research to identify realistic market expectations over the next year and align them with opportunities we foresee to achieve portfolio goals.

In 2020, we experienced the genesis of the global COVID-19 pandemic, which spurred a market bottom on March 23, 2020. Much of the easy money to be made off the bottom was made in 2020 and early 2021. In 2021, the pandemic continued, and the markets performed in line with the historical template for a second year coming off a major bottom. While the overall market rose another 15% throughout the rest of 2021, that money was anything but easy, as different areas of the market ebbed and flowed during the year. We see tough sledding on the horizon for 2022. History has been generally unkind to midterm election-year markets, and the confluence of the election cycle with what is a generally weak third year off a major bottom likely makes for a tough grind in 2022. Additionally, as we get later into this bull market, which is about to complete its 13th year, active management becomes a much more important tool in driving investors toward goals. As the cycle matures, beta alone does not cut it; rather, alpha becomes an even more crucial lever for the portfolio. While this is generally always the case in the private markets, it becomes increasingly more so in the public markets the later into the cycle we get, hence the need for an active approach such as that taken by Balentine. With all that said, all signs from our end continue to point to any challenges this year as a healthy pause that refreshes the bull.