The Alphabulk Monthly Monitor contains essential bulk market information and is updated on a monthly basis with the most recent data. Information is given in good faith but without guarantee. Please send your feedback, comments and questions to data@alphabulk,com
CONTENTS Bulk Fleet……………………………….……………….1 Supply v Demand Historical…….…………….. 1 Historical Charter Rates..……………..………… 1 Existing Dry Bulk Fleet Breakdown...………. 2 Dry Bulk Orderbook Breakdown...………….. 2 Cape Fleet Breakdown…………………………… 3 Panamax Fleet Breakdown…………………..… 3 Supramax Fleet Breakdown………………….…4 Handysize Fleet Breakdown..…………………. 4 Deliveries and Newbuilding Orderbook….. 5 Capesize Deliveries and Fleet Profile….….. 6 Panamax Deliveries and Fleet Profile.……..7 Orderbook by Yard - Capesize………..……... 8 Orderbook by Yard - Panamax...…………….. 9 Scrapping Activity………………………………..… 10 S & P Activity……………………………………...…. 11 Newbuild Contracting……………………………..12 VLOC Fleet..…………….…………………………….. 13 Charter Rates …………………..……………………. 14 Top 25 Capesize Owners………………………… 15 Top 25 Panamax Owners…..…………………... 16 Chinese Steel Demand………..…………………. 17 Chinese Coal Demand....………………………... 18 Coal & Iron Ore Commodity Prices….……...18 Steel Production & Ore Demand...……...…. 19 Iron Ore & Coal Imports…..……………………..19 World Exports of Iron Ore …………..…..……. 20 World Exports of Coal……………………………. 21 Demand for Capesize Bulk Carriers………... 22 Supply of Capesize Bulk Carriers………….... 23 Capesize Supply & Demand……..…………….. 24 Forward Capesize 4TC Forecast.…………..… 24 Cape & Panamax FFA Values...…………...…. 25 Supramax & Handysize FFA Values.……….. 26 Selected Iron Ore Freight Rates..……………. 26 Selected Coal Freight Rates……...……………. 26 Capes Congestion……………..…………………... 27 Panamax Congestion………..…………………... 27 Fuel Prices………………………………….…..……... 28 Freight breakdown Fuel / TC / Fixed ….….. 28 Top 10 Coal & Iron Ore Load Ports….…..… 29 Supply & Demand Explained..………………... 30
Page 1
ALPHABULK Monthly Monitor
September 2017
Web: www.alphabulk.com | E-mail: data@alphabulk.com | Sales : commercial@axsmarine.com
Market Monitor Active Fleet & Additions / Deletions Active Fleet* - 1 Sep. Cape Panamax Supramax Handy
No. 2,117 2,073 4,021 2,291
Capesize Supply v Demand (180,000 dwt equivalents) Deadweight 362,587,306 161,829,111 212,636,624 67,027,645
(explanation on p.30)
2,000
100%
1,800 1,600
90%
1,400 1,200
80%
1,000
Additions - Aug 2017 Cape Panamax Supramax Handy
No. 2 0 1 1
Deadweight 358,835 0 63,496 35,882
800
70%
600 400
60%
200
-
50% Jan-11
Deletions—Aug 2017 Cape Panamax Supramax Handy
No. 0 2 6 4
Deadweight 0 144,563 271,685 101,278
Jan-12
Jan-13
DEMAND (Left Axis)
Jan-14
Jan-15
SUPPLY (Left Axis)
Jan-16
Jan-17
C.U. (Right Axis)
Historical Charter Rates (Baltic Exchange Avg. TC Values) - 1 Sep. 17 45,000 40,000 35,000
Charter Rates
30,000 25,000
Aug. 17 $/day 16,045
July 17 $/day 8,125
Change % + 97 %
Pmax
9,896
9,186
+8%
Smax
9,011
8,495
+6%
Handy
6,927
7,123
-3%
Size Cape**
Trend
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
*Handy Size : 15,000—36,999; Supramax : 37,000—67,999; Panamax : 68,000– 84,999; Capesize : 85,000 + DWT
Jan-11
Jan-12
CAPE 5TC
Jan-13
CAPE 4TC
Jan-14
Jan-15
PMAX
**C5TC based on a 180,000 DWT vessel
Jan-16
SMAX
Jan-17
HANDY
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Existing Dry Bulk Fleet Breakdown
As at 1 Sep. 2017
Size Range
Dry Bulk Fleet and Orderbook by Sector in Mill. Deadweight
Deadweight 3,000—14,999
No. 666
Dwt. 5,056,840
15,000—36,999
2,295
67,151,365
37,000—49,999
1,223
51,845,979
200
50,000—67,999
2,802
160,978,323
150
68,000—84,999
2,081
162,411,499
85,000—119,999
555
53,804,882
120,000—159,999
44
6,452,863
160,000—219,999
1,303
239,465,160
216
62,979,582
11,185
810,146,493
220,000 +
TOTAL
300 250
Current Fleet 100
On Order
50
0
Dry Bulk Orderbook Breakdown Size Range
Dry Bulk Fleet and Orderbook by Sector in No. of Vessels
Deadweight 3,000—14,999
No. 14
Dwt. 97,041
% of Fleet 1.9%
15,000—36,999
66
1,960,190
2.9%
37,000—49,999
115
4,446,630
8.6%
2,000
50,000—67,999
172
10,643,452
6.6%
1,500
68,000—84,999
182
14,886,703
9.2%
85,000—119,999
32
2,902,907
5.4%
120,000—159,999
5
624,000
9.7%
160,000—219,999
67
13,100,362
5.5%
220,000 +
54
19,057,473
30.3%
TOTAL
707
67,718,758
8.4%
Page 2
3,000
2,500
Current Fleet 1,000
On Order
500 -
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ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Cape Capesize FleetFleet Breakdown Breakdown Age
Dwt.
No.
25 +
4.55
22
24
4.71
22
23
5.13
21
22
3.35
18
21
2.32
11
20
1.91
11
19
0.95
5
18
2.72
0
As at 1AsSep. at 12017 May 10
20
30
4%
40
4% 1%
13%
50
60
Dwt.
No.
25 +
2.17
30
24
0.56
8
23
0.84
12
22
2.30
32
21
1.35
19
10-14
20
2.37
33
15-19
19
3.08
42
Age Profile (years) 29%
0-4 5-9
49%
Panamax Fleet Breakdown Age
17
20-24
18
3.78
51
25 +
17
3.42
46
17
3.59
23
16
3.66
24
16
7.39
99
15
4.67
29
15
4.43
59
14
4.88
30
14
1.67
22
13
7.47
44
13
4.72
62
12
8.78
53
12
6.02
79
11
11.24
69
11
7.17
92
10
12.37
77
10
4.90
63
9
9.26
51
9
5.35
68
8
18.40
106
8
4.89
62
7
40.77
253
7
6.37
80
6
53.14
337
6
12.96
164
5
54.66
323
5
19.80
248
4
27.21
146
4
17.14
216
3
20.66
122
3
13.54
171
2
19.22
104
2
8.94
111
1
20.75
114
1
8.36
102
<1
16.21
85
<1
8.31
102
Page 3
Handy Size : 15,000—36,999; Supramax : 37,000—67,999; Panamax : 68,000– 84,999; Capesize : 85,000 + DWT
0
As at As 1 Sep. at 1 2017 May 5
10
15
20
Age Profile (years)
5% 1% 14%
25
35%
0-4
5-9
15%
10-14 15-19
30%
20-24 25 +
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Supramax Fleet Breakdown Age
Dwt.
No.
25 +
5.22
115
24
0.16
3
23
1.38
30
22
2.76
61
21
2.45
52
20
2.88
61
19
1.87
40
18
1.68
35
17
1.93
40
16
4.41
88
15
4.19
83
14
3.52
69
13
4.02
78
12
5.36
101
11
5.31
100
10
5.33
100
9
6.68
125
8
9.89
181
7
16.44
296
6
21.99
398
5
24.87
469
4
15.80
299
3
14.47
276
2
18.55
344
1
17.19
314
<1
14.32
263
Page 4
0
As at 1 Sep. 2017 5
10
15
20
11%
30
Age Profile (years)
4% 2%
7%
25
38%
0-4
5-9 10-14
38%
Handy size Fleet Breakdown
15-19 20-24 25 +
Age 30 + 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 <1
Dwt.
No.
3.09 0.04 0.19 0.22 0.21 0.26 0.24 0.50 1.13 1.74 1.86 1.36 1.39 0.97 1.62 1.20 1.15 1.34 1.59 1.34 1.54 2.56 4.03 7.27 8.47 8.14 4.86 3.30 2.41 1.77 0.75
118 2 8 9 9 11 10 20 45 68 70 53 49 34 59 42 39 44 53 49 58 96 142 243 272 262 153 104 74 53 22
Handy Size : 15,000—36,999; Supramax : 37,000—67,999; Panamax : 68,000– 84,999; Capesize : 85,000 + DWT
0
As at 1 Sep. 2017 2
4
6
8
1% 5%
8%
20%
10% 10% 46%
10
Age Profile (years) 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30 & Over
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Deliveries, Newbuilding Orderbook and Fleet Projections
As at 1 Sep. 2017
Delivery Breakdown (Million Deadweight) -
Deliveries 2014
2015
2016
2017 Jan.-Aug.
Cape
Dwt. No. 18,108,434 101
Dwt. No. 21,015,889 116
Dwt. 13,290,678
No. 69
2015
Panamax
11,345,273 143
8,645,553 107
8,442,923 103
7,000,730
86
2016
Supramax
13,690,320 258
19,466,241 361
16,083,661 293
11,278,359
208
2017(e)
2,907,940 94
2,312,275 70
1,567,440 46
575,269
17
Orderbook 2017 Sep.-Dec.
2018
Cape
Dwt. 13,771,292
No. Dwt. No. 55 13,170,780 58
Dwt. 3,410,647
No. 16
Panamax
4,134,753
51
4,197,338
51
5,006,868
61
1,384,432
17
Supramax
6,077,499
114
6,219,088
118
2,306,317
46
487,178
9
601,229
19
643,358
21
443,003
14
72,600
2
Fleet Projection* 31 Dec. 2017
31 Dec. 2018
31 Dec. 2019
Cape Panamax
157,223,876 2,020 163,765,458 2,095 163,623,062 2,085 165,689,930 2,104
Supramax
204,319,340 3,876 214,744,198 4,062 214,341,378 4,048 212,147,695 4,004 67,536,114 2,318
50
60
2018(e)
2020(e) CAPESIZE
PANAMAX
SUPRAMAX
HANDY
Delivery Breakdown by Vessel Size (Million Deadweight) -
5
10
15
20
25
2014
Dwt. No. Dwt. No. Dwt. No. Dwt. No. 354,737,011 2,076 364,746,903 2,126 368,501,066 2,128 375,191,846 2,150
Handy
40
2020
No. 29
31 Dec. 2016
30
2019(e)
2019
Dwt. 5,332,023
Handy
20
2014
Dwt. No. 19,897,276 109
Handy
10
66,672,120 2,286 64,851,143 2,225
63,494,146 2,179
2015 2016 2017(e) 2018(e) 2019(e)
*Note: Fleet projections account for slippage (some percentage of the current orderbook to be delayed or not actually delivered) and for scrapping projections for the next 3 years. The estimate, however, does not include any assumptions for future orders to utilise the spare yard capacity.
Page 5
2020(e)
Handy Size : 15,000—36,999; Supramax : 37,000—67,999; Panamax : 68,000– 84,999; Capesize : 85,000 + DWT
CAPESIZE
PANAMAX
SUPRAMAX
HANDY
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Capesize Vessel Deliveries August 2017 Dwt.
Yard Yard
Owner Owner
NSUUNITED CSK PRIDE
207,500 250870
IMABARI NAMURAMARUGAME IMARI TAINS CHONG SUMITOMO CHEANG HK
AZUL K. TAEAN BRISA
151,335 209635
SUNGDONG JMU ARIAKE
CAMELLIA DREAM
207486
IMABARI SAIJO
MOL
SUPER STAR
205855
QINGDAO YANGFAN
PRC DEVELOPMENT BANK
KSL SAPPORO
180960
SHANGHAI WAIGAOQIAO FREDERIKSEN GROUP
CS GRACE
180429
JIANGNAN CHANGXING
CHINA SHIPPING GROUP
NAVIOS GEM
180200
IMABARI HIROSHIMA
UNKNOWN
KANG XIN HAI
115339
JIANGNAN CHANGXING
COSCO
DOUBLE MIRACLE
95200
IMABARI HIROSHIMA
KYOWA KISEN
KOREA MOLSHIP FINANCE
Capesize Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Monthly 4.5 4 3.5 3
2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112 2016
2017 DELIVERED
2018
ON ORDER
Capesize Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Annually 60
50
40
30
20
10
0 1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
DELIVERED
Page 6
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
ON ORDER
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Panamax Vessel Deliveries August 2017 Dwt. NO RECORDED DELIVERIES
Yard
Owner
Panamax Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Monthly 3 2.5 2
1.5 1 0.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 2016
2017 DELIVERED
2018
ON ORDER
Panamax Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Annually 25
20
15
10
5
0 Pre 1985
Page 7
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
DELIVERED
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
ON ORDER
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Orderbook by Yard - Capesize Actual deliveries 2013—2017 Million Dwt 15 10 5
Units Delivered 0
Orderbook
15
16
17
12
20
12
14
16
4
5
8
4
0
0
2
10
7
2
Shipyard
10
15
SHANGHAI WAIGAOQIAO
9,070,480
32
6
QINGDAO BEIHAI
3,991,147
12
0
0
JIANGSU NEW YANGZIJ,
2,940,192
9
3
0
1
NAMURA IMARI
2,333,432
13
3
3
4
0
HYUNDAI SAMHO
2,277,450
7
0
0
0
0
1
GUANGZHOU LONGXUE
1,750,000
7
10
1
4
4
0
JMU TSU
1,467,345
7
12
5
2
3
2
IMABARI MARUGAME
1,352,920
10
0
0
0
3
0
NEW TIMES SB
1,080,986
6
1
0
1
0
0
HYUNDAI ULSAN
976,050
3
2
2
2
3
3
BOHAI CSIC
843,510
4
5
5
8
6
0
JMU ARIAKE
800,064
2
0
0
0
0
0
CMHI JIANGSU
800,064
2
2
1
1
0
2
OSHIMA SAKAI
745,241
8
0
3
0
0
1
JINHAI HI
624,000
3
0
0
0
0
0
ZHEJIANG SB
484,000
4
0
0
0
0
0
TSUNEISHI NUMAKUMA
425,000
5
2013
0
0
0
0
0
CSBC KAOHSIUNG
416,000
2
2017
2014
2
1
1
0
0
QINGDAO YANGFAN
410,000
2
2018
0
0
0
0
0
IMABARI TADOTSU
364,320
2
0
2
0
1
1
XINGANG
358,400
2
9
9
8
3
3
IMABARI SAIJO
346,600
2
1
3
2
2
0
SANOYAS MIZUSHIMA
282,903
3
0
0
0
0
0
IMABARI SHIN KASADO
264,000
3
0
0
1
8
0
DAEHAN HAENAM
210,000
1
2017
14
5
No
2016
13
Orderbook - Million Dwt 0
Dwt
2015
Page 8
As at 1 Sep. 2017
2019 2020 2021
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Orderbook by Yard - Panamax
As at 1 Sep. 2017
Actual deliveries 2013—2017 in Million Dwt 4
3
1
Units Delivered 0
Orderbook
13
14
15
16
17
9
2
11
18
11
1
9
7
8
4
0
0
10
11
6
Shipyard
Orderbook - Million Dwt 0
1
2
3
4
Dwt
No
JIANGSU NEW YANGZIJ.
2,159,122
26
6
TSUNEISHI CEBU
1,796,432
22
0
2
CHENGXI
1,720,800
21
8
5
5
TSUNEISHI FUKUYAMA
1,060,800
13
8
5
4
3
OSHIMA OSHIMA
999,275
12
7
5
9
10
6
TSUNEISHI ZHOUSHAN
816,190
10
1
0
1
3
0
HANTONG SHI
789,600
10
2
4
3
2
2
OSHIMA SAKAI
736,695
9
4
0
0
0
0
XINGANG
493,800
6
4
0
0
1
1
PENGLAI ZHONGBAI
489,600
6
5
2
4
1
3
SANOYAS MIZUSHIMA
418,425
5
0
0
3
7
3
JIANGSU JINLING
408,234
5
0
7
7
14
11
IMABARI MARUGAME
333,000
4
0
0
0
0
0
CSHI ZHOUSHAN
328,860
4
2
0
0
0
0
HYUNDAI VINASHIN
324,800
4
0
0
0
1
0
AVIC WEIHAI
324,800
4
2013
0
0
0
0
1
YANGZHOU DAYANG
246,000
3
2014
0
0
0
1
2
CHINA HUARONG
227,250
3
0
2
4
1
0
JINHAI HI
164,000
2
5
3
0
0
0
JIANGSU EASTERN
163,000
2
2016
0
0
0
0
3
CSHI DALIAN
162,000
2
2020
2017
0
0
0
0
0
IMABARI SHIN KASADO
162,000
2
2021
6
5
6
3
3
SASEBO
161,648
2
3
1
5
2
3
JMU MAIZURU
161,310
2
4
5
0
0
0
JIANGSU RONGSHENG
75,750
1
2015
Page 9
2
2017 2018 2019
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ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Scrapping Sales August 2017 Dwt.
Built
Seller
Ldwt Price ($m)
BERGE YOTEI
172,846
1997
SOHMEN GROUP
21,221
9
YONG TONG
74,382
2001
CHINA COSCO
N/R
N/R
GUANG MING FENG
73,978
2002
CHINA COSCO
N/R
N/R
LIAN HUA FENG
73,901
2002
CHINA COSCO
N/R
N/R
YUGALRAJ
70,456
1993
JINDAL STEEL&POWER 11,462
PENG YING
70,231
1990
CHINA COSCO
N/R
N/R
JIA YONG
70,181
1993
SHENZHEN ENERGY
N/R
N/R
4.5
Bulk Carrier Scrap Prices (USD/Ldwt) 800
700 600 500
387.9
400 300 200
246.3
100
Far East
Demolition per Subtype 2012-2017 (Number of Vessels) 2013
2014
2015
2016
Jan-17
Jan-16
Jan-15
Jan-14
Jan-13
Jan-12
Jan-11
Jan-10
Pakistan / India
Scrapping Activity (Million Dwt)
300 2012
Jan-09
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-06
Jan-05
Jan-04
Jan-03
Jan-02
Jan-01
Jan-00
0
6
2017 264
5
250
4
198
200
185
3
167 150
135 127 124
2
110 100
94
85
97
47 31
42
40 23
22
65
0 43
31
0 CAPESIZE
Page 10
1
95
83 69
50
107
PANAMAX
SUPRAMAX
HANDYSIZE
Cape
Panamax © Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Sale & Purchase Activity August 2017 Dwt.
Built
Seller
Price ($m)
SHANDONG DA ZHI
402,347
2012
VALE
N/R
SHANDONG DA DE
402,303
2011
VALE
87.2
SHANDONG DA CHENG
402,285
2012
VALE
90.8
SHANDONG DA REN
402,285
2012
VALE
N/R
CAPE LIBERTY
185,897
2005
MITSUI SOKO
19
CAPE ELEKTRA
179,430
2011
VENIAMIS GROUP
30
TRUE FRONTIER
179,294
2010
JP MORGAN
30
C DISCOVERY
179,185
2010
GLOBAL MARINE FIN.
30
ASTERIX
178,978
2010
MARINAKIS GROUP
IVS CABERNET
177,173
2007
SINGAPORE STAR SHIPPING
20
NPS CENTURY
172,036
2000
NATIONAL POWER SUPPLY
N/R
FORMOSABULK ALLSTAR
150,393
1995
FORMOSA PLASTICS
N/R
BOAVISTA
93,077
2010
SCHULTE T REEDEREI
14
HARBOR HIROSE
83,494
2011
KYOWA SANSHO
19.2
BBG GLORY
82,062
2013
BEIBU GULF SHIPPING
N/R
100
BBG HOPE
82,044
2013
BEIBU GULF SHIPPING
N/R
90
GODDESS SANTOSH DEVI
81,918
2014
UNITED OCEAN
22.8
HB PRINCESS
81,684
2013
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING
17
MIDLAND SKY
81,466
2010
MITSUBISHI CORP
18
FORTUNE CLOVER
77,430
2006
CIDO SHIPPING HK
11
ABY DIVA
76,596
2007
ABY HOLDINGS
12.8
STAR OF SAWARA
76,553
2008
CHIBA SHIPPING GROUP
13.5
LEVANTES
75,900
2001
NEWPORT SA
8.2
PRIVATLANTIC
75,051
2012
BARIBA CORP
18.4
HARIS ATHINA
74,786
2001
ILIOPOULOS
7.5
QC ATHINA
72,917
2000
ERASMUS SHIPINVEST
7.4
Page 11
28.8
Baltic Exchange Capesize 172,000 dwt 5 years old (Million USD) 180 160 140
120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Baltic Exchange Panamax 74,000 dwt 5 years old (Million USD)
80 70 60 50
40 30 20 10
0
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Newbuild Contracting Activity August 2017 Dwt.
Delivery
209,869
5 / 2020
TSUNEISHI NUMAKUMA
5x 85,000
1/2019-1/2020
NISSEN KAIUN
IMABARI MARUGAME
5x 84,904
6/2019 - 6/2020
NISSEN KAIUN
OSHIMA OSHIMA
2x 84,000
6-9 / 2020
FOREMOST MARITIME
CSHI ZHOUSHAN
4x 82,215
3-12 / 2019
AEGEAN SHIPPING
JIANGSU NEW YANGZIJIANG
2x 82,018
8-12 / 2019
ANGELAKOS
CHENGXI
4x 82,000
11/2018-2/2019
SHANDONG SHIPPING
TSUNEISHI CEBU
9x 81,656
7/2019-4/2021
GLOCAL JAPAN
4
TSUNEISHI CEBU
7x 81,656
5/2019-4/2020
TSUNEISHI GROUP
2
TSUNEISHI CEBU
3x 81,656
12/2019-3/2019
MITSUI & CO
HANTONG SHI
81,600
12 / 2018
ATLANTICA SHIPPING
HYUNDAI VINASHIN
81,200
6 / 2020
BAHRI
TSUNEISHI CEBU
2x 63,633
7/2019-4/2020
CSHI DALIAN
2x 62,000
2-5 / 2019
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING
SHIN KOCHI
3x 38,242
1-8 / 2019
DOWA LINE
FUJIAN SOUTHEAST
2x 20,500
5 / 2019
Yard JMU TSU
Contracting Party
CAPE—Newbuild Contract Activity (Million Dwt)
MITSUBISHI CORPORATION
14
TSUNEISHI GROUP
FUJIAN ANDA SHIPPING
12 10 8 6
0
PMX—Newbuild Contract Activity (Million Dwt) 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5
2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0
Page 12
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
VLOC Fleet - 1 Sep. 2017 No. Of VLOC’s (current) Current VLOC’s (deadweight)
216
No. Of VLOC’s (on order) On Order VLOC’s (deadweight)
54
VLOC Current Fleet / Ordered - by Shipyard (No. of Vessels)
62,979,582
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
NAMURA IMARI QINGDAO BEIHAI GUANGZHOU LONGXUE DAEWOO UNIVERSAL ARIAKE JIANGSU RONGSHENG HYUNDAI ULSAN SHANGHAI WAIGAOQIAO HYUNDAI SAMHO MITSUBISHI NAGASAKI NACKS DALIAN CSIC No. 2 STX O&SB JINHAE JIANGSU NEW YANGZIJIANG MITSUI ICHIHARA IHI KURE UNIVERSAL TSU SASEBO BOHAI CSIC JIANGSU YANGZIJIANG GUANGZHOU SY HYUNDAI GUNSAN NKK TSU STX O&SB CHINA HITACHI ARIAKE JMU ARIAKE CMHI JIANGSU SAMSUNG DACKS KAWASAKI SAKAIDE IMABARI SAIJO SUMITOMO OPPAMA
19,057,473
VLOC Current fleet / Ordered - by Owner (No. of Vessels) 0 10 20 30
5
40
CHINA COSCO SHIPPING POLARIS SHIPPING CO BW GROUP CHINA MERCHANTS GROUP ICBC
NIPPON STEEL SUMITOMO MOL
40
DELIVERED ON ORDER
VLOC Fleet and Orderbook per Year of Delivery (Million Deadweight)
NYK
12
HARIM GROUP
DWT ON ORDER
SINOKOR
10
GENERAL ORE INTERNATIONAL
DWT DELIVERED
TOYO SANGYO
8
SENO KISEN 6
ZODIAC GROUP OCEAN LONGEVITY
4
K LINE RUI GANG LIAN GROUP
DELIVERED
2
ON ORDER
CHINA DEVELOPMENT BANK 0
FORTESCUE METAL GROUP
Page 13
Note : Considering all Dry Bulk Vessels over 220,000 dwt to be VLOC.
1986
1990
1992
1994
1996
1999
2004
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Charter Rates (Baltic Average of the TC Indexes) - 1 Sep. 2017
Recent Period Fixtures - Sep. 2017
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
10,000
-
CAPE 5TC
Cape (180,000 dwt) Panamax Supramax Handy size
CAPE 4TC
Aug. 17 $/day 16,045 9,896 9,011 6,927
July 17 $/day 8,125 9,186 8,495 7,123
PMAX
MoM + 97% +8% +6% -3%
SMAX
HANDY
Aug. 16 $/day 5,996 5,480 7,032 5,881
YoY + 168 % + 81 % + 28 % + 18 %
Charterer
Period
Rate
Heng Shun
207,941
Swiss Marine
4-6 mos
20,000
Australia Maru
181,415
Cargill
5-8 mos
16,000
Cs Salubrity
180,301
Louis Dreyfus
4-6 mos
19,000
Vangelis
179,859
Cargill
6-9 mos
19,000
Xin Chang Hai
179,200
Bunge
4-6 mos
17,700
Wan May
176,460
Cargill
10-12 mos
15,250
Glovis Ambition
172,559
KLC
11-13 mos
15,000
John Wulff
93,282
BG Shipping
6-8 mos
11,350
Peace Ark
93,248
Ausca Shipping
6-8 mos
13,000*
Sicilian Express
93,076
Oldendorff
3-4 mos
16,000**
Dwt.
Charterer
Period
Rate
Panamax
20,000
Page 14
Dwt.
Capesize
Pedhoulas Trader
82,214
Pacific Bulk
5-7 mos
13,000
Athinoula
82,177
Starboard
36 mos
9,500
Medi Chiba
82,003
Al Ghurair
12 mos
13,500*
Atrotos Heracles
81,922
Cobelfret
6-8 mos
13,250
Tai Knowledge
81,855
Cofco
12 mos
13,000
Sea Proteus
81,761
Cofco
4-7 mos
13,500**
Star Suzanna
81,711
Phaethon
5-8 mos
12,500
Sea Pegasus
81,614
Cofco
5-7 mos
13,400
Lyric Sun
81,276
Ausca Shipping
5-8 mos
12,250
Captain J. Neofotistos
79,501
Aquavita
5-7 mos
15,500*
Ismene
77,901
DHL
12-15 mos
12,000
Great Triumph
77,835
Oldendorff
12 mos
11,800
Glory Trader
77,684
Ausca Shipping
6-8 mos
12,500*
Nord Libra
77,134
Swiss Marine
11-14 mos
11,750
Tiger East
76,212
Ausca Shipping
6-8 mos
12,750*
Prabhu Das
76,015
Marubeni
6-9 mos
11,000
Maera
75,403
UNICO
9-11 mos
11,900
* Delivery Atlantic
** Delivery India
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Capesize—Top 25 Owners Owner
As at 1 Sep. 2017 Dwt.
No.
1 CHINA COSCO SHIPPING
19,933,363
100
4,564,432
13
2 NYK
10,275,436
69
0
0
3 BW GROUP
9,052,343
36
1,133,510
5
4 CHINA MERCHANTS GROUP
6,052,523
27
4,000,288
10
5 POLARIS SHIPPING CO
5,952,511
22
3,253,500
10
6 K LINE
8,795,396
52
0
0
7 FREDRIKSEN GROUP
7,610,425
42
1,080,986
6
8 ANGELICOUSSIS GROUP
8,599,131
48
0
0
9 NIPPON STEEL SUMITOMO
5,807,947
29
982,297
3
10 ECONOMOU GROUP
6,726,074
36
0
0
11 NISSEN KAIUN
5,697,527
35
849,520
10
12 HARIM GROUP
6,387,473
26
0
0
13 IMABARI ZOSEN
6,302,821
38
0
0
14 TOYO SANGYO
6,067,537
35
0
0
784,223
5
4,946,034
32
16 ICBC
1,602,187
4
4,000,320
10
17 WINNING SHIPPING HK
5,188,765
29
0
0
18 MOL
4,753,074
28
140,000
1
19 OLDENDORFF E
4,553,813
29
208,000
1
20 NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS 4,650,592
27
0
0
21 RESTIS GROUP
4,637,418
27
0
0
22 ZODIAC GROUP
4,429,981
21
0
0
23 VENIAMIS GROUP
4,429,827
27
0
0
24 OAKTREE CAPITAL
2,979,480
19
1,242,588
6
25 HAHN & CO
4,129,774
24
0
0
15 JAPAN TBN
Page 15
On Order No.
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
DWT DELIVERED DWT ON ORDER
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Panamax—Top 25 Owners Owner
As at 1 Sep. 2017 Dwt.
No.
On Order
No.
5,601,793
73
244,800
3
933,566
12
2,463,755
30
3 NISSEN KAIUN
3,226,700
40
81,656
1
4 FREDRIKSEN GROUP
3,165,980
40
0
0
5 MITSUBISHI CORP
2,757,912
34
163,200
2
6 HAJIIOANNOU GROUP
2,198,168
28
84,000
1
7 ECONOMOU GROUP
2,206,596
29
0
0
8 NAVIOS MARITIME HOLDINGS
2,072,646
27
0
0
9 DIANA SHIPPING INC
2,065,053
27
0
0
10 OAKTREE CAPITAL
2,034,933
25
0
0
11 MINSHENG FINANCIAL
1,605,925
21
164,000
2
12 WISDOM MARINE GROUP
1,191,424
15
568,056
7
13 PROKOPIOU GROUP
1,740,563
22
0
0
14 NYK
1,646,230
21
0
0
15 LOLLI-GHETTI GROUP
1,552,543
19
0
0
16 VENIAMIS GROUP
1,119,376
14
404,300
5
17 SHANDONG SHIPPING
1,019,668
13
492,000
6
902,066
11
571,592
7
19 OLDENDORFF E
1,245,172
16
164,000
2
20 LASKARIDIS
1,223,073
16
163,200
2
21 SANTOKU SENPAKU
1,383,469
17
0
0
631,098
8
660,400
8
1,113,363
14
162,234
2
730,396
9
408,000
5
1,093,242
14
0
0
1 CHINA COSCO SHIPPING 2 JAPAN TBN
18 TSUNEISHI GROUP
22 KOLLAKIS GROUP 23 NEUNHOEFFER 24 NISSHIN SHIPPING
25 ICBC Page 16
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
DWT DELIVERED
DWT ON ORDER
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Chinese Steel Demand
As at 1 Sep. 2017
Monthly Chinese Crude Steel Production (Million Mt.)
Monthly Chinese Domestic and Foreign Imports of Iron Ore (Million Mt.) 2.5 160
80 Monthly
Domestic production
Daily
Foreign imports
140
75 2.0 70 65
1.5
120
100 80
60 1.0
55
60 40
50 45
Monthly Daily
40
Aug. 17 74.594 2.406
July 17 74.021 2.388
Change + 0.8 % + 0.8 %
Trend
Monthly Domestic and Imported Iron Ore v Chinese Crude Steel Production (See Note) 90
0.5 20
0.0
0
Domestic Imports
Aug. 17 115.49 88.66
July 17 114.66 86.25
Change + 0.7% + 2.8%
Trend
Change - 3.7%
Trend
Monthly Iron Ore Stocks at Major Chinese ports (Million Mt.) 120
80
100 70 60
80
50
60 40 30
40
20
20 10 Domestic (Fe) 0
Page 17
Imported (Fe)
Total (Fe)
Steel Production
1 Sep. 17 107.07
1 Aug. 17 111.16
-
Bottom Left : In this graph the Domestic and Imported Iron Ore have been corrected to represent the actual Iron Ore (Fe) Content.
Š Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Chinese Coal Demand & Commodity Prices Chinese Thermal Coal Burn & Domestic Production (Million Mt.)
Chinese Coal Imports (Million Mt.) 35 30 25
Lignite Anthracite Coking Thermal Chinese Imports
20 15 10 5 0
Steam Coal Prices and Coal Freight Rates (USD p/mt) 180
up to 1 Sep. 2017
GlobalCOAL DES ARA Index 6000kcal (GC) GlobalCOAL RB Index FOB 6000kcal (GC) GlobalCOAL Newc. Index FOB 6000kcal (GC) CIF Guangzhou
160 140
Iron Ore Prices and Iron Ore Freight Rates (USD p/wmt) 200 180 160
120 100
80
80
Richards Bay / Rotterdam - Cape Freight Richards Bay / S. China - Cape Freight Newcastle / Japan - Cape Freight
35
20 15 10
40 20
0
0
Source : GC - Global Coal - www.globalcoal.com
25
60
20
Page 18
40
30
100
40
Iron Ore Fines 62% Fe CIF China (Left Axis) Tubarao / China (Right Axis) W Australia / China (Right Axis)
140
120
60
up to 1 Sep. 2017
5 0
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Other Asian & Western Steel Production, & Iron Ore / Coal Imports
As at 1 Sep. 2017
Crude Steel Production (Million Mt)
Asian Coal Imports (Million Mt) 35
10 9
30
8 25
7 6
20
5 15
4
3
10
2 5
1 Japan
-
South Korea
Taiwan
India
Germany
Iron Ore Imports (Million Mt) (from Exporter Point of View)
Turkey
USA
-
Taiwan
India
China
25
Japan
South Korea
Taiwan
India
EU27
EU 27
14
10
South Korea
European—Coal Thermal & Coking Imports (Million Mt) (from Exporter Point of View)
16
12
Japan
Germany
Turkey
20
15
8
6
10
4 5
2 -
Page 19
0
NOTE : Bottom Right Graph: EU27 also includes Germany.
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
World Exports of Iron Ore (Million Mt.)
As at 1 Sep. 2017
180 160 140
120
Other Canada
100
West Africa 80
South Africa India
60
Brazil
Australia
40 20 -
August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 Page 20
Australia 71.69 69.01 69.95 70.53 75.49 63.51 61.22 69.15 69.69 72.14 67.49
Brazil 34.50 35.33 30.01 31.44 35.12 28.91 25.73 36.40 24.05 35.11 33.79
India 1.02 1.77 2.18 3.59 2.27 3.53 3.64 4.49 3.41 2.53 2.15*
67.49* 71.47*
31.31 34.13
1.37* 1.77*
South Africa 5.50 4.67 5.42 6.10 6.41 5.31 4.66 5.83 5.15* 4.70* 4.87* 4.85* 5.15*
West Africa 1.68 1.30 1.65 1.64 2.35 1.82* 2.13* 2.13* 1.95* 1.91* 1.81* 1.56* 1.77*
Canada 4.17 3.18 3.56 3.88 2.96 3.18 2.97 2.79 2.60 3.48 3.29
Other 19.80 15.47 15.76 19.46 18.27 17.22* 16.06* 17.82* 17.00* 17.55* 16.75*
Total 138.37 130.72 128.53 136.64 144.49 123.49* 116.40* 136.60* 123.84* 137.42* 130.14*
4.01 3.40*
17.13* 17.78*
127.71* 135.46*
* - estimate
Š Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
World Exports of Coal (Steam + Coking) (Million Mt.)
As at 1 Sep. 2017
140 120
100 Other Canada
80
Russia USA
60
South Africa Colombia
40
Indonesia Australia
20
-
August 2016 September 2016 October 2016 November 2016 December 2016 January 2017 February 2017 March 2017 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 July 2017 August 2017 Page 21
Australia 31.75 34.07 30.01 32.19 37.98 30.04 28.49 31.00 22.58 31.34 32.06 32.49* 31.55*
Indonesia 26.99 25.73 25.85 27.17 26.82 24.56* 24.07* 27.76* 24.93* 24.75* 24.20* 23.85* 23.94*
Colombia 11.76 6.47 6.23 5.34 9.87 6.26 6.20 8.44 6.94* 8.26* 6.67* 7.46* 7.71*
South Africa 6.20 8.05 6.50 7.82 7.17 6.01 6.84 6.63 6.32 5.46* 5.88* 7.51* 6.81*
U.S.A. 4.54 3.87 4.41 5.94 7.19 6.65 6.26 7.22 6.56 6.57 6.64 3.69* 4.57*
Russia 16.94 16.67 9.52 14.20 18.78 9.53 12.36 19.78 9.56 15.62 16.99* 10.33* 14.99*
Canada 2.64 2.45 2.56 2.87 2.72 2.11 1.54 3.07 2.71 2.56 2.74 2.48 2.40*
Other 7.43 8.54 8.72 9.92 9.22 9.31* 7.38* 10.26* 8.73* 9.24* 6.93* 6.59* 6.19*
Total 108.25 105.84 93.79 105.44 119.75 94.48* 93.13* 114.16* 88.32* 103.81* 102.11* 94.41* 98.14*
* - estimate
Š Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Demand for Capesize Bulk Carriers— Basis Standard 180,000 Deadweight Vessel Equivalents
As at 1 Sep. 2017
1,800 FORECAST
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
Page 22
Note : See Page 30 for Explanation of “Supply & Demand basis a standard 180,000 Deadweight Cape Equivalent”
CONGESTION INDO BAUX GUI BAUX WAFR ORE OMAN ORE T + T ORE NZ ORE PERU ORE CHILE ORE PHILO ORE INDO ORE AUS IORE INDIA ORE SAF ORE MAU ORE RUSS ORE UKR ORE SCAN ORE VEN ORE MEX ORE USA ORE CAN ORE BRAZ ORE RUSS COAL CAN COAL USA COAL COL COAL RBAY COAL INDO COAL AUS COAL ALL COAL
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Capesize Bulk Carrier Supply Overview—Translated into Standard 180,000 Dwt Capesize Vessel Equivalents
As at 1 Sep. 2017
2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600
100%
1,500
85%
1,400
70%
1,300
1,200 1,100
1,000 Jan-2011
Jan-2012
Jan-2013
Jan-2014
Jan-2015
Jan-2016
Jan-2017
Jan-2018
Note : Alphabulk is considering as a base case 70% of the orderbook for 2017 & 2018 being delivered. Graph shows 3 scenarios, 100% / 85% / 70%
Capesize Deliveries / Orderbook (Million Deadweight) - Monthly 4.5 4 3.5 3
2.5 2 1.5
1 0.5 0 1
3
5
7 2015
9
11
1
3
5
7
9
11
1
2016
5
7
9
11
1
3
2017 DELIVERED
Page 23
3
ON ORDER
5
7 2018
9
11
1
3
5
7
9
11
2019
OPTION
Note : See Page 30 for Explanation of “Supply & Demand basis a standard 180,000 Deadweight Cape Equivalent”
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Capesize Supply & Demand—Base Case of 70% of Forward Orderbook being delivered 2,000
As at 24 Sep. 2017
100%
1,800 ESTIMATE
1,600
90%
1,400 1,200
80% DEMAND (Left Axis)
1,000 800
SUPPLY (Left Axis)
70%
C.U. (Right Axis)
600
400
60%
200 -
50%
Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18
Demand 1,297 1,352 1,425 1,369 1,332 1,521 1,263 1,384 1,405 1,333 1,406 1,403
Supply 1,867 1,869 1,872 1,878 1,879 1,882 1,898 1,898 1,899 1,897 1,896 1,892
Capacity Utilisation v Baltic Exchange C5TC Index (180,000 dwt).
As at 24 Sep. 2017
40,000
100%
35,000
90%
30,000
80% 70%
25,000
60%
20,000
50%
15,000
40%
5TC Forecast (Left Axis)
30%
C.U. (Right Axis)
10,000 5,000 -
C.U. 72% 75% 79% 74% 72% 81% 68% 76% 77% 73% 77% 77%
4TC AVG (Left Axis) 5TC AVG (Left Axis)
20% 10% 0%
Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18
C.U. 72% 75% 79% 74% 72% 81% 68% 76% 77% 73% 77% 77%
5TC Avg. 8,125 16,045 20,000
4TC Forecast
20,000 14,000 20,000 15,000 6,500 10,000 9,000 12,000 15,000 11,000
Note : Supply / Demand - All Capesize Supply / Demand Expressed in Terms of 180,000 dwt vessels. C.U. - Capacity Utilisation, i.e. Demand for Capes expressed as a percentage of total Capes Supply including adjustment for slow-steaming at low levels of utilisation. 5TC Average - as published by the Baltic Exchange basis a 172,000 dwt vessel. 5TC Forecast - Alphabulk’s forecast for the future Baltic Time charter Averages for the month in question.
Page 24
Note : See Page 30 for Explanation of “Supply & Demand basis a standard 180k Deadweight
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
FFA—Capesize (180,000 dwt) Index
15 Sep. 2017 19,614
15 Aug. 2017 17,070
MoM + 2,544
Sep (17)
19,705
17,150
+ 2,555
Oct (17)
19,700
17,535
+ 2,165
Nov (17)
18,715
17,540
+ 1,175
Q4 (17)
18,503
17,183
+ 1,320
25,000
Q1 (18)
10,275
10,035
+ 240
20,000
Q2 (18)
12,415
13,030
- 615
15,000
Cal 18
14,155
13,939
+ 216
10,000
Cal 19
14,125
13,850
+ 275
5,000
Cal 20
14,215
13,890
+ 325
0
Cal 21
14,300
14,290
+ 10
Cal 22
14,660
14,785
- 125
Index
15 Sep. 2017 12,224
15 Aug. 2017 10,330
MoM + 1,894
Sep (17)
11,695
10,690
+ 1,005
Oct (17)
12,960
10,900
+ 2,060
Nov (17)
12,850
10,980
+ 1,870
Q4 (17)
12,493
10,716
+ 1,777
10,000
Q1 (18)
9,675
8,780
+ 895
8,000
Q2 (18)
10,410
9,800
+ 610
6,000
Cal 18
9,956
9,380
+ 576
4,000
Cal 19
9,750
9,360
+ 390
2,000
Cal 20
9,670
9,390
+ 280
Cal 21
9,670
9,450
+ 220
Cal 22
9,660
9,460
+ 200
45,000
40,000 35,000 30,000
Cape 5TC Cape 4TC FFA - 12 months FFA - 9 months FFA - 6 months FFA - 3 months FFA curve
FFA—Panamax
Page 25
18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000
Pmx 4TC FFA - 12 months FFA - 9 months FFA - 6 months FFA - 3 months FFA curve
0
© Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
FFA—Supramax 15 Sep. 2017 Index 10,270 Sep (17) 10,620 Oct (17) 11,910 Nov (17) 11,570
Q4 (17) 11,507
FFA—Handysize 18,000 Smx 6TC FFA - 12 months FFA - 9 months FFA - 6 months FFA - 3 months FFA curve
16,000 14,000 12,000
15 Sep. 2017 Index 7,921 Sep (17) 7,988 Oct (17) 8,375
Handy 6TC FFA - 12 months FFA - 9 months FFA - 6 months FFA - 3 months FFA curve
12,000 10,000
Nov (17) 8,338
10,000
Q4 (17)
8,271
Q1 (18)
9,240
8,000
Q1 (18)
7,513
Q2 (18)
9,780
6,000
Q2 (18)
8,250
Cal 18
9,635
4,000
Cal 18
7,938
Cal 19
9,700
2,000
Cal 19
8,113
Cal 20
9,695
Cal 20
8,238
Cal 21
9,690
Cal 21
8,288
Cal 22
9,715
Cal 22
8,388
0
14,000
8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
FFA—Selected Coal and Iron Ore Cape Freight : Baltic, Futures & Synthetic Curves. 40 35 30 25 20 15
As at 1 Sep. 2017 40
20
Brazil / China (B) Brazil / Rotterdam (B) South Africa / China (B) W. Australia / China (B) Brazil / China (F) Brazil / Rotterdam (S2) South Africa / China (S2) W. Australia / China (F)
Richards Bay / Rotterdam (B) 18 16
Colombia /Rotterdam (B)
35
Richards Bay / Rotterdam (F) Colombia /Rotterdam (F)
30
14 12 10 8
Richards Bay / China (B) Gladstone / China (S1) Bolivar / S.China (S1) Richards Bay / China (S2) Gladstone / China (S2) Bolivar / S. China (S2) Richards Bay / China (B)
25 20 15
6
10
10 4
5 -
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2 0
5 -
Note : (B)—Baltic Exchange, (F)— Baltic Futures, (S1)—Synthetic curve utilising Baltic TC Rates, (S2)—Synthetic curve utilising Baltic Futures.
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ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Cape and Panamax Congestion - Main Iron Ore/Coal Ports. Capesize Congestion (no. of vessels) Last 20 weeks.
As at 21 Sep. 2017 Panamax Congestion (no. of vessels) Last 20 weeks. 120
180 160
100
140
80
120
100
60
80
40
60 40
20
20
0
0
AUSTRALIA
BRAZIL
CHINA
AUSTRALIA
BRAZIL
Capesize Congestion (no. of vessels) Last 3 years.
Panamax Congestion (no. of vessels) Last 3 years.
200
90
180
80
160
70
140
60
120
50
100
40
80
30
60 40
20
20
10
0
0
AUSTRALIA Page 27
CHINA
Source : AXSMarine
BRAZIL
CHINA
AUSTRALIA
BRAZIL
CHINA © Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Historical Fuel Prices
Freight Breakdownâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;Coal
1,200
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 -
1,000
800 600 400 200 -
IFO 380 Rott IFO 380 Sing MGO Rott MGO Sing
As at 1 Sep. 2017 80%
Bolivar / Rotterdam
70% 60% 50% 40%
30% 20% 10% 0%
Port Costs
Bunker Component
Time Charter Component
Bunker % of Freight
Selected Iron Ore Freight Routes - Breakdown of Freight
Brazil / China
W. Aus / China
80%
14
30
70%
12
70%
25
60%
10
60%
35
50%
20
40%
15
30%
80%
50%
8
40%
6
30%
20%
4
20%
5
10%
2
10%
-
0%
-
0%
10
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Port Costs
Bunker Component
Port Costs
Bunker Component
Time Charter Component
Bunker % of Freight
Time Charter Component
Bunker % of Freight Š Copyright Alphabulk 2017 Unauthorised re-distribution prohibited
ALPHABULK
Monthly Monitor September 2017
Top 10 Load Ports 18
4.0
9
16
3.5
8
14
3.0
7
12
6
2.5
10
5
2.0
8
4
1.5
6 4
1.0
2
0.5
Newcastle - August - 12.5m mt
3 2 1
Puerto Bolivar - August - 2.5m mt
0
0.0
18
12
7
10
6
16 14
4
10
6
8
3
6
4
4
-
2
2
PDM - August - 14.2m mt
1
Tubarao - August - 9.3m mt
Saldanha - August - 5.2m mt 0
-
16
18
50
14
16
45
12
14
40 30
10
8
25
8
6
20
6
4
15
4
Dampier - August - 11.6m mt
-
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35
12
10
2
Richards Bay - August - 6.8m mt
5
8
12
2
0
2
-
Source : AXS Marine
10
Port Walcott - August - 15.7m mt
5 -
Port Hedland - August - 42.8m mt
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Monthly Monitor September 2017
Supply and Demand Explained General
Table 1
The base unit for the Alphabulk Supply and Demand Model is days of 180,000 dwt and we compare every vessel and cargo back to that standard. For the purposes of this model we consider all vessels of 90,000 dwt and over.
Deadweight
No of days Supply Per day
Per month*
92,000
0.51
15.84
186.56
Supply
105,000
0.58
18.08
212.92
On the supply side a vessel of 180,000 dwt will generate 365 days of supply for each calendar year. A larger or smaller vessel will generate proportionally more or less days of supply as the case may be (see table 1). These monthly and annual values are then adjusted further to allow for off hire and dry docking. Vessels of over 240,000 dwt have an additional adjustment factor (-5%) to allow for short loading of these larger vessels. E.g. supply value of 1,670 is equivalent to 1,670 vessels of 180,000 dwt (after all drydocking / off-hire adjustments).
125,000
0.69
21.53
253.47
150.000
0.83
25.83
304.17
180,000
1.00
31.00
365.00
220,000
1.22
37.89
446.11
400,000
2.22
68.89
811.11
Demand Behind the freight model there are 2 commodity models, one for iron ore and one for coal. These models are built with both customs data and Alphabulkâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s forward projections on future volumes to derive a monthly data series (both historical and forward) for each exporting country. Alphabulk then utilises past behavior to determine the percentage of these exports that will be performed by capes before applying voyage parameters (basis 180,000 dwt capesize vessel) to each route to determine the number of days demand that that route generates (See Table 2). For Example in March 2012 Richards Bay exported 689,930mt to EU27. Of this, 530,030mt was performed by Capes which represents 3.21 shipments (basis the standard 180 dwt vessel). Each shipment takes 55 days and thus the 530,030mt will generate a total of 176 days demand, which we then divide by the number of days in that month to get our final demand figure of 5.68 vsls..
Capacity Utilisation and Price By comparing the Monthly Supply and Demand Values, we can calculate the utilisation of the cape fleet. Although other factors also have to be considered, this Capacity Utilization is a good indicator for the health of the Capesize market and can be used to predict the future behaviour of the market. It is important to remember that this C.U. will not take into account factors such as market sentiment or localised supply and demand imbalances which can drive the market just as effectively as a 2 % shift in C.U.
Per Year
* Month of 31 days such as Jan. or Dec. Table 2
Richards Bay March 2012 Exports
Destination
Total volume
Cape Volume Demand days
China
1,267,484
1,267,484
432
Taiwan
476,750
476,750
156
Korea
532,600
532,600
193
India
2,122,734
1,118,820
265
EU27
689,930
530,030
176
Disclaimer
Baltic Exchange
The information in this newsletter is given in good faith based on the market situation at the time of preparation and as such is specific to that situation only. While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation and collection of information in this report Alphabulk does not accept any liability whatsoever for any errors of fact or omission or opinion, or for any loss incurred by any person who may seek to rely on this information. This newsletter is intended solely for the recipient and must not be reproduced or passed or shared with any third parties without the written permission of Alphabulk.
Where reference is made to the Baltic Exchange the associated data is copyright to the Baltic Exchange and is reproduced here with their kind permission.
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