new data-based evaluation. In a perfect world, you find those synergies [involving both models].” This natural friction still provides fodder for bloviating in the hockey blogosphere. For example, in a July 2017 post barking “Shots fired!”, Cult of Hockey blogger David Staples set a former NHLer’s comments about the role of toughness in the game (by implication unquantifiable) against the numbers-based analysis done by “hockey nerds” (Staples’ self-inclusive term). After much back and forth considering the merits of both sides – new stats or intangibles like team cohesiveness – he left the issue framed in a bi-polar paradigm. But in the real, results-driven world of the hockey business, that paradigm of numbers nerds versus savvy old pros, while not gone completely, is morphing into something different. Now, the synergies of which Dr. Rodney Paul speaks are providing value for many NHL franchises. Brian Burke, co-founder of the Business of Hockey Institute, (AU is the educational provider to the Business of Hockey Institute) is also President of Hockey Operations for the Calgary Flames. As one of the NHL’s arch-insiders and old-timers, Burke is nonetheless a hardnosed proponent of evidencebased decision making and proud of the Flames’ investment in the new science of analytics: “We have the best analytics guy in the league [Director Chris Snow].” Burke explains that Snow is an important voice at the table in the Flames’ operation; working with scouts, coaches and management on player evaluation, with management on contract preparations and negotiations, and with the coaching staff on tactical preparations from game to game. Other NHL organizations have gone deeper with the numbers game. In 2016, the struggling Arizona Coyotes hired then-26-year old, John Chayka, a statistics wunderkind, to be their general manager, raising eyebrows throughout the league. While the jury is still out on that precipitous move, the Toronto Star dubbed 2016 “the summer of analytics,” reporting that 20 of the NHL’s then-30 teams (there are now 31) listed at least one analytics-related employee in their staff directories. In 2017, it’s hard to tell from scanning NHL websites which organizations have invested more in analytics than others. Some show multiple employees dedicated to the function, others none. It’s worth noting that Brian Burke’s fierce rivals and immediate neighbours to the north, the Edmonton Oilers, identify no analytics specialist on their website, yet they have several staff members devoted to comprehensive statistical analysis. Faculty of Business
SMARTEST GAME, HARDEST TO ANALYZE The question that continues to dog the NHL, and hockey in general, isn’t so much about whether advanced stats can help measure player and team performance, but which stats can and should be applied. American journalist Adam Gopnik indirectly addresses this strategic challenge in his thought-provoking essay “Why hockey is the smartest game in the world” (commissioned by the CBC for the 2011 Massey Lecture series). Employing mathematical game theory, and psychological concepts such as spatial intelligence and situational awareness, he compares the frozen game to other major team sports, “Hockey approaches a more perfect balance between planning and “There is some natural reading, idea and improvisation, than any other sport.” He breaks friction between old down some of the great goals of school methods and new hockey lore, suggesting that each data-based evaluation. In one “is the result of a plan and a perfect world, you find history unknown to or beyond the those synergies [involving control of the opposition, shared both models].” among the players through their – Dr. Rodney Paul, Athabasca University’s common spatial intelligence, each MBA in Hockey Management program taking place at such high speed that the plan is invisible to all but the tutored eye.” One can infer from Gopnik’s almost lyrical praise of the game that it can be subject to empirical analysis (“planning and reading”), and yet because of its speed and team chemistry (“common spatial intelligence”), it can at times defy attempts to quantify its working parts. Brian Burke weighs in on this conundrum simply and effectively, “Baseball is uniquely suited to statistical analysis because it’s a series of identical, repetitive events. Only the pitches change. Hockey is much more random.” He says the physical element of the game is harder to quantify (even with stats on hits given and taken) and throws in his favourite term ‘truculence’ – “How do you measure that?” That’s why Burke’s Flames use analytics as one tool for evaluative purposes. Two others, which Burke ranks higher in his preference, are the “eyetest” (watching a player perform on the ice over a period of time), and character checks (references and player interviews). THE AU PERSPECTIVE Dr. Rodney Paul believes the stats he covers in his “numbers week” can support Brian Burke’s higher ranked tools. He hopes the day will come when the experts devise statistical methods to assess even the random, capricious elements of the game. For now, CONNECTED 25