A number of scenario studies have been conducted for various countries within Europe. These studies explore a wide range of emission caps, taking into account local circumstances and potentials for technology implementation. Many of these studies have used specific burden-sharing allocation schemes, such as the ‘Contraction & Convergence’ (C&C) approach (GCI, 2005) for calculating the allocation of worldwide emissions to estimate national emissions ceilings. IPCC AR4 - Climate Change 2007 Mitigation of Climate Change http://www.gci.org.uk/Documents/ar4_wg3_full_report.pdf
One potentially useful approach - although by no means without its own complications - is to move towards per capita emission targets and a ‘Contraction & Convergence’ policy scenario aimed at atmospheric stabilization in the post-Kyoto phase. Even if such targets are ‘adjusted’ on some mutually accepted bases (for example, economic output per unit of carbon, climatic zones, population density, etc) they could lead to a more transparent and predictable regime that sends clear signals to all countries about the type of behaviour that would reduce the regulatory burden on them over time. Moreover, such targets could be applied to all countries, North and South, thereby responding to the US demand that all countries be treated equally by doing away with the ‘class’ structure of the current regime. Instead of a convoluted system of arbitrary percentage cuts for different countries, having a standard global emissions budget linked directly to atmospheric stabilization would not only be more elegant and equitable but also more manageable in the long term. Indeed, such a system could be a first step towards a more meaningful clustering of related agreements around a broader regime for all issues related 10 the atmospheric commons. The ESM assesses whether these assets are fairly shared out between and within generations. It combines estimates of critical natural capital stocks (eg timber, water, land, ores) and the tolerance limits (eg regeneration rate, sink capacity) of ecosystems in order to set equitable (per capita) shares for development in the present. Similarly, fair shares of future stocks and tolerance limits arc worked out, based on future population estimates, and assigned for future generation use. ESM enables policy-makers to set environmentally sustainable and equitable resource use and pollution load targets, for individual nations 10 achieve as they see fit, on a sector-by-sector basis over determined periods: for example, to reduce carbon emissions b)’ an estimated 60-80 per cent on 1990 levels by 2050, with each nation progressively moving towards its fair share emission rate, and using legal standards and fiscal policy to do so. ESM is an essential prerequisite to make the so-called ‘Contraction & Convergence’ approach, now attracting the attention of Climate Convention delegations, viable. Survival for a Small Planet Edited by Tom Bigg
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