Opportunities for utilising ecological space Because of its past and present greenhouse gas emissions, the industrialised world is the prime driver of climate change. Poor countries, meanwhile, pollute the least and suffer the most from the impacts of climate change. These disparities in emissions also mean that most developing countries, particularly in Africa, have high levels of carbon credit. To redress the balance, developing countries can use or sell some of their excess ecological space to reduce poverty and boost lowcarbon economic growth and development. If the balance is achieved at a globally low level of emissions, it would be in line with the theory of ’Contraction and Convergence’ proposed in the 1990s by the Global Commons Institute and accepted as a policy target by the Africa Group, among others. While a significant share of the emissions from industrialised countries can be attributed to sources such as ‘luxury’ consumption and leisure, African countries emit mostly ‘productive’ carbon, generated to meet basic needs. This difference could be realised in trade-driven activities that benefit developing countries – for example, the export of flowers or green beans from several African countries, including Kenya, to developed countries like the UK (see ‘Fresh thinking’, below). While this may generate additional emissions in developing countries through the production and freighting of these goods, it also enables them to develop their economies and boost the livelihoods of many people. Standard Bearers Ed A Borot de Battisti, J MacGregor http://www.gci.org.uk/Documents/16021IIED.pdf
The study constructed three scenarios of resource extraction for the year 2050. In the business-as-usual scenario, industrial countries maintain the same rate of resource use per capita whilst developing countries catch up. Under this scenario, annual global resource extraction could triple, as would average per capita emissions to 3.2 tons CO2 per capita, compared to the year 2000. Under a moderate ‘Contraction and Convergence’ scenario, industrial countries reduce their rate of resource use by a factor of two, while developing countries catch up to these reduced rates. Compared to 2000, this could produce an increase in annual resource extraction of 40 per cent and an increase in average per capita emissions of nearly 50 per cent (1.6. tons CO2 per capita). Under a tough ‘Contraction and Convergence’ scenario, the consumption levels of resources in 2050 are the same as levels in 2000. It requires industrial countries to reduce their rate of resource use by a factor of 3 to 5 and developing countries by 10-20 per cent. This could decrease per capita emissions of CO2 by 40 per cent. These results suggest a need for policy intervention. The three scenarios for the year 2050 have been constructed and may be compared to the baseline of the year 20006. The first represents one vision of “business as usual”. The two others are increasingly stringent versions of the ‘Contraction and Convergence’ ideas put forward in the climate debate (GCI 2003). http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/26si3.pdf