2004
a single big idea - one that could solve the twin crises of global poverty and global warming - is already in circulation, and rapidly gaining steam in policy-making circles. First proposed by the London-based Global Commons Institute more than a decade ago, “contraction and convergence” (C&C) is now being taken seriously: Geoff Mulgan and David Miliband, the current and former heads of the No 10 policy unit, have both highlighted the idea publicly. More explicit support has come from Sir John Harman, chairman of the Environment Agency, Sir John Houghton, the UK’s most eminent climatologist, and the MPs’ environmental audit and international development committee. C&C aims to move gradually to a position where global greenhouse-gas emissions are reduced to sustainable levels but where every human being has an equal right to consume fossil fuels. So rich countries would “contract” their emissions, while the poorest could increase theirs, so that both sides ultimately “converge” on per capita equality. C&C’s biggest selling point is that it offers a science-based framework with reliable outcomes at the end of a process that must stretch for decades into the future. Although Kyoto is a good first step, there is no long-term planning: nothing else on the table can tell us with certainty where we will end up in 2050 or 2100. C&C gets back to first principles. First, it asks how much climate change we are prepared to tolerate, and pins this to a specific, scientifically valid commitment, mandating an upper limit to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. (The current level is the highest on earth in more than 420,000 years.) Once this “cap” has been agreed, it implies a budget for the remaining emissions of greenhouse gases as fossil fuels are phased out. No longer will the atmosphere be a free-for-all dumping ground. This budget must be divided up fairly among the world’s population - nothing less will be acceptable to the countries of the south, which will rightly be suspicious of any treaty that might freeze their development. It is like food rationing during the Second World War - with a limited amount of atmosphere to go round, sacrifices will be accepted only if they are fairly shared. A frequent objection to C&C is that America will never sign up to a global agreement based on equity. But opposing fairness will be a difficult negotiating position to sustain, and the US objection to Kyoto - that developing countries are not given targets - is tackled head on by a C&C regime where everyone has a converging target. Indeed, the US spoke in favour of C&C at the original Kyoto negotiations, saying it could be the basis of the next agreement.
GCI ARCHIVE
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