CHAPTER 4
For everyone, there’s concern about increasing inequality. Inequality is a global trend, with developing countries also becoming highly unequal societies. There are numerous factors at play, with the new technologies figuring as one of the main culprits. Digital technologies have not produced the same number of jobs as, for example, the earlier twentieth-century motor industry. Instead, many of the new technologies—automation, artificial intelligence, and robotics—are disrupting both the unskilled and skilled job markets. The biggest returns from the technology breakthroughs are going to the owners of new firms, and a relatively small number of highly skilled personnel in those firms. For the foreseeable future, even if productivity finally kick starts, the new technologies are likely to displace workers faster than they can reboot their skills and find new employment.74
…But Many Face Obstacles Global Trends 2030 underlined the importance of technological breakthroughs in genetically modified organisms (GMOs), precision agriculture, water management, and bio-based energy as vital for dealing with increasing problems of water and food scarcities in the developing world (see chapter 3). It is impossible to envisage the many global challenges being tackled without the use of available or emerging technologies. At the same time, all of the above technologies face a number of stiff obstacles. Many governments—especially European ones—have put restrictions on GMO use or the sale of GMO products, because of safety reservations and customer aversion. Precision agriculture—which could be used to help boost productivity in African agriculture and elsewhere—requires major upfront investment that is beyond the means of small farmers. Micro-irrigation—needed in areas of increasing water scarcity— is also too expensive for most developing countries, despite the need. As the costs of DNA sequencing come down, personalized medicine is likely to spread, but primarily for the well-to-do who can afford the relatively expensive diagnostic tests. Many developing countries lack sufficient doctors and health services needed for personalized medicine. By 2035, however, human-augmentation breakthroughs—such as fully functional limb replacements, enhanced eyesight, and hearing augmentations—will be more widely available. There is a similar problem of high investment costs for smart-city technologies and a smart grid. Smart grids will only slowly take shape. In the United States, states like California “with aggressive renewable standards (a target of 33 percent renewable energy by 2020) are further along than others.”75 Some estimate that utilities may have to invest between $17-24 billion annually over the next two decades to establish smart grids in their regions. The federal government would also have to match some of that investment. There are big benefits to be had—up to $2 trillion for utilities and consumers in increased efficiencies—but the costs are also high. Some biotech advances will almost certainly face public backlash, especially in Western countries. Finding a cure for cancer may be applauded, but the ability of parents to pick and choose traits for their children could be a “bridge too far” for some. The ease with which organisms—potentially including deadly viruses— can be created from DNA building blocks such as BioBricks is already becoming a national-security issue. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, for example, added gene editing to a list of threats posed by “weapons of mass destruction and proliferation” in his 2016 annual worldwide threat assessment report to the US Congress.76 While there are efforts within the scientific community to prevent dual-use biotechnology from being misused or falling into the wrong hands, many believe bioterrorism is inevitable. A high-profile bioterrorist attack could prompt a clampdown in further biotech research, forcing scientists to work in more government-controlled settings. This would be a setback, and could slow discoveries in many other non-lethal areas. My hunch is that the information technologies, and the automation and manufacturing technologies, may get the biggest traction and become the centerpiece of the technology revolutions out to 2035. Every day, there is a report about the greater use of robots. Many Chinese factories are facing a dwindling worker
74 Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Center for Digital Business, 2012). 75 Atlantic Council, Envisioning 2030, p. 7. 76 Antonio Regalado, “Top US Intelligence Official Calls Gene Editing a WMD Threat,” MIT Technology Review, February 9, 2016, https://www.technologyreview. com/s/600774/top-us-intelligence-official-calls-gene-editing-a-wmd-threat/.
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