Endnotes
76
Erik Gartzke, Quan Li, and Charles Boehmer, “Invest-
for Latin America and the Caribbean,” IDB, 2013, https://
ing in the Peace: Economic Interdependence and Interna-
www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2013/caribbe-
tional Conflict,” International Organization, Vol. 55, no. 2,
an/pdf/challenge.pdf; World Bank, “Expanding financing
Spring 2001, http://pages.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/publica-
for biodiversity conservation: Experiences from Latin
tions/gartzkeetal_io_01.pdf.
America and the Caribbean,” World Bank, 2012, http://
77
Relative to the Base Case.
www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/
78
Relative to the Base Case.
LAC-Biodiversity-Finance.pdf; Credit Suisse Group AG
79
Relative to the Base Case.
and McKinsey Center for Business and Environment,
80
Estimate based on 0.85° Celsius increase over 1880
“Conservation Finance from Niche to Mainstream,” 2016,
(as of 2015), plus 0.2 degree Celsius per decade increase
https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/
out to 2030, https://www.climate.gov/news-features/
docs/about-us/responsibility/banking/conservation-fi-
understanding-climate/climate-change-global-tempera-
nance-en.pdf.
ture.
90
81
Barbara Fraser, “Goodbye glaciers,” Nature, November
Current carbon emissions data in Walter Vergara, et al.,
“The climate and development challenge for Latin America
8, 2012; Paul Brown, “Andes’s Tropical Glaciers Going
and the Caribbean,” IDB, 2013, https://www.imf.org/
Fast, May Soon Be Gone,” Climate Central, April 14, 2013,
external/np/seminars/eng/2013/caribbean/pdf/challenge.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/andes-tropical-gla-
pdf.
ciers-are-going-fast-may-soon-be-gone-15844.
91
82
The World Meteorological Organization names big
United Nations Population Division (UNPD), 2004,
“World Population to 2300,” ST/ESA/SER.A/236, De-
storms and provides lists of names out to the year
partment of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations,
2021; see http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/
http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/lon-
Storm-naming.html. 83
Sandra J. Ackerman, “Climate Change and Cholera,”
grange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf. 92
The concept of the demographic window is from
American Scientist, Vol. 103, no, 2, March/April 2015,
United Nations Population Division (UNPD), 2004, “World
http://www.americanscientist.org/issues/pub/climate-
Population to 2300.”
change-and-cholera.
93
84
Disease summary from IPCC WGII AR5, “Central and
The International Futures model forecasts an ur-
banization rate of approximately 85% in 2030. Sergio
South America (Chapter 27),” Intergovernmental Panel on
Bitar estimates a 90% rate. See Sergio Bitar, “Why
Climate Change, 2014, https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assess-
and How Latin America Should Think About the Fu-
ment-report/ar5/wg2/drafts/fd/WGIIAR5-Chap27_FG-
ture,” Inter-American Dialogue, December 2013, p. 18.
Dall.pdf.
http://globaltrends.thedialogue.org/wp-content/up-
85
US Department of State, “Fighting Coffee Rust in
loads/2015/03/Why-and-How-Latin-America-Should-
Latin America and the Caribbean,” November 22, 2013,
Think-about-the-Future-Bitar-2013.pdf.
https://www.feedthefuture.gov/article/fighting-cof-
94
fee-rust-latin-america-and-caribbean.
Think About the Future,” Inter-American Dialogue, De-
Sergio Bitar, “Why and How Latin America Should
86
Data from the International Futures model.
cember 2013, http://globaltrends.thedialogue.org/wp-con-
87
Insights on more productive LAC agriculture from Gin-
tent/uploads/2015/03/Why-and-How-Latin-America-
ya Truitt Nakata and Margaret Zeigler, “The next global
Should-Think-about-the-Future-Bitar-2013.pdf.
breadbasket: How Latin America can feed the world,” IDB,
95
2014, https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/6436.
p. 14. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Publications/Files/
Population data from the IFs base case.
WUP2014-Highlights.pdf.
88
From conversation with Jorge Ducci, Water and Sani-
tation Sector, IDB, August 24, 2015. 89
On forests and conservation financing, see Walter
Vergara, et al., “The climate and development challenge
96
United Nations, “World Urbanization Prospects,” 2014,
Atlantic Council, “Urbanization in Latin America,”
February 5, 2014, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publications/articles/urbanization-in-latin-america. 97
World Bank, “Developing Countries Need to Harness 151